Trump or Biden who leads in US election polls

Republican President is being challenged by Democratic Party nominated Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama's deputy chairman but has been in American politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will try to assess the situation, asking voters which candidate they prefer.

In this direction, the BBC has attended several polls and tries to find out what it can and cannot tell us who will win the elections.

Biden heads for national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide for how popular a candidate is throughout the country as a whole, but they are not necessarily a good way to predict the outcome of the elections.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led to the polls and won nearly three million votes more than Donald Trump, but that was lost because the U.S. uses an electoral college system, so winning more votes does not always win the elections.

With this observation aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the beginning of the year.

He has stood around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point advantage in some cases.

Who is ahead of the national polls?

In 2016 the polls were much less clear and only a few percentage points separated Mr. Trump and his then rival Hillary Clinton at certain points as election day approached.

Which countries will decide on these choices?

As Mrs. Clinton's case revealed in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.

Most states almost always vote the same way, which means there is actually only a handful of states where both candidates have a chance to win.

These are the places where the elections will be won and lost and recognised as states of the <x0-focus of battle”.

In the electoral college system that the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members send to Congress chamber and Senate.

A total of 538 electoral college votes are pending, so a candidate must arrive 270 to win.

Several states of the battlefield “” have much more electoral college votes than others, so candidates often spend much more time campaigning in them.

Who is leading the <x0 battle field states”?

At the moment, polls in the states of the <x0-field battle” look good for Joe Biden, but things can change very quickly, especially when Donald Trump is involved.

Polls suggest that Biden has great advantage in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Three Industrial States, where his rival Republican won less than 1% to win in 2016.

But there's the “battle lists” where Mr. Trump won a lot in 2016, the ones his campaign team will be most concerned about.

His winning March in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% then, but it's looking a lot closer to all three at the moment.

This is one of the reasons why some political analysts appreciate his chances of smaller re-election, Telegrafi conveys.

FivetyEight, a website of political analysis, says Mr. Beden is “favoured” to win the election, while The Economist says it “ka very likely” could Z. Trump.

Who won the first presidential debate?

Donald Trump and Joe Biden were confronted in the first television debate on 29 September.

Many experts praised the debate for Mr. Beden.

But what do polls tell us?

A national NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted after the debate found Mr. Beden with 53% and his rival with 39% a gap six points wider than in their previous survey two weeks ago.

But the most disturbing for the president are the two state surveys of the “battlefield” conducted by the New York Times and the Siena College that found Mr. Beden ahead with seven points in Pennsylvania and five points in Florida.

In general, it does not seem that the performance of the president's debate helped him to bridge the gap in his rival.

The second debate was cancelled, so the final debate will be on Thursday (October 22nd).

Did COVIDD-19 influence Trump's numbers?

We had only a few days to think about the first debate before President Trump's speech in the early hours of October 2nd discovered that he and the first lady had come up positive on the test for coronavirus.

While the pandemic has dominated the top titles in the US since the beginning of the year, the focus had shifted to the Supreme Court following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.

So Mr. Trump's positive coronavirus test put his answer to the pandemic, which has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people in the United States, back in the spotlight.

According to data from an ABC News/Ipso survey, only 35% of Americans approve of the way the president has handled the crisis. That figure rises between the republics, but only 76%.

To his health, 72% of respondents said Mr. Trump didn't get “the risk of touching the virus very seriously”, while the same number said he failed to get the right presets when it came to his personal health”.

A similar Yahoo News/ YouGov found that about half the respondents believed he could have avoided the disease altogether if he had practiced greater social distance and had worn a facial mask.

Can We Trust Polls?

It is easy to deny polls saying they were wrong in 2016, and President Trump often does just that. But it's not entirely true.

Most national polls had put Hillary Clinton ahead with several percent, but that doesn't mean they were wrong, because she won three million more votes than her rival.