How did Donald Trump make the EU out of the Kosovo-Serbia agreement?

The most important agreement between Serbia and Kosovo was neither mediated by the European Union nor signed in Brussels. The resumption of direct Pristina-Belgrade flights was negotiated by the United States and sealed in Berlin, under President Donald Trump himself.

The White House head did not hide his enthusiasm, writing on Twitter that his administration had reached this agreement even though everyone had told him it was impossible. For President Trump, this achievement has tremendous significance. Since coming to power, he has turned Kosovo into one of its foreign policy gravity points, appointing only two special envoys last year to advance the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

Since it was signed in “German soil”, the deal on the resumption of direct flights appears to have received Chancellor Angela Merkel's blessing, even though she and Trump have had a series of clashes because of Kosovo. But after much dispute, Berlin and Washington seem to have already found the joint “language”, giving a powerful impetus to the resumption of Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

Although the lags of negotiations for launching flights are likely to continue in the dark, it is evident that neither the European Union nor the future Kosovo prime minister were part of these talks.

But who gave the green light for this agreement in Pristina?

But who gave the green light for this agreement in Pristina and is the EU now out of the picture?

According to “N York Times” the resumption of Pristina-Belgrade flights came after months of negotiations and diplomatic meetings led by Richard Green, the US ambassador to Germany, who was appointed special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo relations by President Trump last year.

Green himself said the key to reaching the agreement signed Monday was ignoring the long-standing political conflicts between the two countries and focusing on the potential of economic relations. “What we have heard from the business community in Kosovo and from the business community in Serbia is that we want a more normal trade structure and that they need direct flights,” said Green. “That is why we decided to resume flights for the first time in two decades”, he added.

The agreement was signed by the Serbian Ministry of Infrastructure and the chief of Kosovo civil aviation. But the two shadow negotiations have most likely been Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo's Hashim Thaci. This was made clear not only by Thaci's reaction, which enthusiastically welcomed the agreement but also by the silence of Albin Kurti and Isa Mustaf.

Neither the future prime minister of Kosovo nor the head of the LDK have had any response to this agreement, even though it marks one of the most concrete steps in normalising relations between the two countries.

Kosovo is doing more than 100 days without government, as the VV and LDK have not yet signed the coalition agreement, while Ramush Haradinaj's incumbent government does not have the competencies to negotiate such a pact. While Kurti and Musftafa were busy at the table of dialogue for forming the government and the one who seemed to have sat at the negotiating table to resume flights was Thaci, as the only head in Kosovo to have such competencies at the moment. He and Vucic are currently at the Davos Summit, where they are expected to have a meeting.

Speaking of the deal, Thaci writes on Twitter that this is an important step for the process of normalising relations.

I welcome Lufthansa's request to open an airline between Pristina and Belgrade. This is an important step for the movement of citizens and the normalisation process. I'm grateful to Councilman O'Brien and Ambassador Richard Green for delaying this” process, writes Thaci.

In Tirana, meanwhile, the only ones who have reacted are Prime Minister Edi Rama and former Prime Minister Sali Berisha.

In Tirana, meanwhile, the only ones who have reacted are Prime Minister Edi Rama and former Prime Minister Sali Berisha.

Rama was the first from Tirana to welcome the agreement to open the Pristina-Belgrade airline. Through a Twitter post, quoting NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, he said this is an important step for the easier circulation of people and goods in the Western Balkans.

After that, Berisha has also voiced support for restoring the Belgrade-Pristina airline, stressing that it is a peace agreement. But the former prime minister has not spared the attacks, saying that this agreement was greeted with BiH between saddles and President Vucic and Prime Minister Rama.

“Edvin Christaq Zography, the first demagog and fraud of his people, said he was pleased to be Lufthansa and it was not Air Serbia who would make this flight, as this would mean recognition of Kosovo”, Berisha writes.

President Vucic for his part has praised as very important the restoration of the Pristina-Belgrade airline, for which, as he said, a long dialogue has developed and “has been reached a compromise solution for which no one can say we have recognised Kosovo”.

“It is very difficult to reach any agreement on this issue. I want citizens to know how important and difficult --”, he underlined.

So the criticism of why the operator on that direct line will not be Air Serbia, Vucic said that “Albanians would love this more than anyone else, but which is impossible for us”.

Air Serbia would have to sign all documents with the state of Kosovo. I have to sign a contract with Adem Jashari Airport, even Kosovo as a state, to accept that the low air layer is not under our control. Therefore, we sought and fought to include KFOR, to have a mediator”, he from Davos explained.

The EU out of the game?

For many experts, this agreement is seen as a step that will pave the way for the resumption of dialogue for reaching a comprehensive agreement, but leadership of this dialogue is not likely to be the EU anymore.

Former American diplomat Daniel Cerwer says that after the reopening of the Pristina-Belgrade airline, both sides will have to sit at the negotiating table.

“We should keep in mind that Belgrade and Pristina will return to the negotiating table when Kosovo is done with government. And then there will be a new problem, election period and campaign in Serbia. This could slow progress in the two-party talks. Also, dialogue is a process that is mediated by Europe and sometimes involving Americans. I'm not sure if such a kind of co-operation will always produce the best results”, says Serwer.

Many foreign policy experts in the Western Balkans are convinced that the next table of Kosovo-Serbia talks will be led by the US, as many Washington officials say Trump considers the situation in Kosovo very dangerous to leave the EU.

Washington has repeatedly sent clear messages to Kosovo and Serbia leaders to return to the negotiating table, thus turning to the main mediator between the two sides. For many experts, the US is making clear that it is now the White House that will take the lead by replacing Brussels, which is increasingly passive in resolving the Kosovo issue.

The new foreign policy chief for the European Union, Josep Borrell, comes from Spain, a country that has not yet recognised Kosovo as independent. Even though he said the purpose of his mandate would be to resume talks between Pristina and Belgrade, top European officials have made clear how he cannot lead this dialogue. And given the union's internal problems, it is clear that Brussels has neither the power nor the will to play a key role in the process of normalising Kosovo relations, Serbia.

For Bosnian analyst Aleksandar Ivković, it is clear that despite obstacles that have emerged during behind the scenes, Washington is taking steps to restore both sides to negotiations and resume flights is one of them.

So far, after the joint resolution presented by the 27 members of the European Union and Serbia at the UN General Assembly in 2010, negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina have been eased by EU High Representatives. But for almost four years there has been no significant progress, during which time the United States has been inactive, leaving the Kosovo issue at its lowest diplomatic level.

The “just after discovering Russia's growing influence, which used every crisis in the region to spread its influence, the United States decided to engage in both Belgrade-Pristina and the region dialogue. According to Washington estimates the situation is too dangerous to leave to Europeans”, says Bosko Jakisić, journalist of the Serbian daily “Politika”.

According to him, the European Union has been hit with numerous crises over the past decade, starting in the 2008 financial crisis, the Greek crisis, the Ukraine crisis in 2014, and the crisis of migrants that triggered an increase of right-wing populist parties. All of this, along with the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union, has made Brussels unable to cope with the current problems of the region, especially those that could lead to a possible” conflict, Jaksic points out.

The “will soon become clear that the US is more efficient than the EU. In 2017, Washington announced its determination to resolve the Athens- Skopje in a year and made it”, he recalls