Rama won respect in Europe, but will she distance herself from the unfaithful EU?

In 2019 a 20-year-old European policy towards the Balkans collapsed. 2020 was to be the year of waste cleaning. When the spring comes to know how many dead bodies lie in ruins.

From Norbert Mapps-Niedik

Another EU summit for the Western Balkans is scheduled to be held in May of next year in Zagreb. Officially, the Council of Europe in October only postponed its decision to open accession negotiations with Northern Macedonia and Albania. French President Emmanuel Macron's veto, breaking a solemn promise from last June's summit, caused shock in the region and almost all over Europe. Especially in Germany is the fact that with his harsh refusal The EU has lost the most important leverage to support pro-Western reformers in the six non-EU countries in Southeast Europe. Many hope the Zagreb summit in May may reconsider the October decision, but hope is weak.

A new European Commission will prepare the summit, and its report falls under the authority of new Enlargement Commissioner Oliveér Várhely. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose policies Várhely has always supported, strongly advocates EU enlargement in the southeast, but with a whole different agenda from Germany. Orbán is not concerned about democracy in the Balkan states, rather: it was the one who saved from prison the former authoritarian and corrupt prime minister of northern Macedonia. The more Hungary struggles for the Balkans, the greater the scepticism in France, the Netherlands, but also Germany. Fear is that Hungary is using the states of Southeast Europe only to create its own area of influence and keep refugees away.

Macedonia: Zaevi has only played one card and lost

A month before the Zagreb summit April 12th elections in northern Macedonia are held. Reformian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has been consistent in his EU course, in 2018-2019, even realised the change of the name of the state. So he only played one card and lost. Still under the fresh impression of the French vote, he has scheduled new elections. If Zaev loses his election and authoritarian, nationalist, pro-Russian opposition to come back to power, the pro-Europeans throughout the region have little long-term prospects.
It's obvious to anyone that they couldn't keep the promise: “admission if they did reform”. It would be bad irony, as if the Zagreb summit just after a possible victory of the right, to “po” accession negotiations with northern Macedonia. The message would be: Make maximum resistance to any Western requirement! Only one who risks most wins.

Serbia: Constantly Elections, Opinions in Furilization

Perhaps in Serbia, there will be an election in 2020, as will 2017, 2016, 2014 and 2012. The continued elections are for the country's strong man, President Aleksandar Vuciq, a tried tool to keep the public in a state of mobilisation and to shame the opposition annually. French Veton in October Vuciq took it as an opportunity to relativise Serbia's western orientation and prepare his people for a permanent course between Europe, Russia, China and all potential investors a logical consensus of European attraction. Therefore, in the accession negotiations, neither side has a cause for haste.

The same applies to Montenegro. In seven years of talks, this small country, like its neighbour Serbia, has so far passed silent on dim European warnings about corruption and intimidation of journalists and opposition.

Albania: Will Prime Minister Rama distance himself from the EU, which does not keep his word?

In Albania the crisis continues. If it's over by 2020, nobody knows how. There is stagnation since the boycott of local elections and the opposition's withdrawal from parliament. Prime Minister Edi Rama has clashed with criminal networks in the country, fought drug trafficking and won for that respect in Europe. But now he lacks international support, not only because of the blockade on the road to the EU, but also because a number of European countries, particularly the Netherlands, do not want to break it up with the Albanian opposition.

For Rama, one aware of power, to surrender, this is not expected. Earlier, as would Vucici in Serbia, he would distance himself from the EU, which does not keep his word, and would seek a path of his own. For Bosnia and Herzegovina to finally wake up from its political coma, it is the least thought of in the atmosphere of 2020. The less expectations anywhere in the region, the greater the migration. With the law on migration of the qualified workforce, which will take effect in March, Germany gives another impulse.

Kosovo: A rebel to fight corruption

Really interesting are only developments in Kosovo. With the October election winner, Albin Kurti, the country must soon have a new prime minister altogether. The rebel promises determined fight against corruption and nepotism and must face powerful networks, even ready for violence. Unlike reformers in neighbouring countries, for Kurti the EU is less part of the solution than part of the problem: After their demonstrated loyalty to Europe, until now the rulers willingly hid their personal and mainly financial agenda. In each government formation they were thanked with massive support from powerful Western ambassadors.

This time west is reserved. That is even true of the United States, which has never shown reluctance to intervene. A new strategy for the Balkans is being clearly worked in Washington. It's still unclear how it might be. But that Americans take the notebook, when Europe no longer knows it, is exactly a well-known model for this region since the 1990s wars.