In Macedonia, September 30th: West vs. Russia

Skopje has never been visited before by more Western politicians than it has now. All of them have come to support Macedonia's government in order for the 30 September referendum to result successfully. This would draw Macedonia close to the European Union and NATO.

In June 2018, agreement has been signed between representatives of Athens and Skopje on Macedonia's new name, North Macedonia. The disagreements between Greece and Macedonia on the name last since 1991, when this former Yugoslav republic was declared an independent state. Athens has blocked Macedonia's EU and NATO membership efforts.

Moscow Criticises

US Defence Minister James Mattis visited Skopje in September, and there he criticised Russia for mixing in the referendum. Mattis said there is no doubt that Moscow is conducting a campaign against the referendum. Moscow, which has no interest in Macedonia approaching the EU and NATO, has dismissed these accusations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Western countries are involved in Macedonia's internal affairs, insisting that the agreement signed in Prespa be voted.

Greece and Macedonia themselves last summer criticised Russia for mixing in their internal affairs. Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev blames Greek-Russian venture Ivan Savvidis for financing in Macedonia the movements that oppose the referendum and organise violent protests in this country in order to influence citizens before declaring the name.

Concerns over referendum participation

In recent polls, the majority of Macedonia's citizens will reportedly agree to changing the name and opening the way for EU and NATO membership. But the biggest problem is the number of citizens who will vote because for the success of the referendum, more than half of the citizens are eligible to vote. Macedonia's president Ivanov has declared he will not vote, while even some opposition have called for boycotting the referendum. Western diplomats say every day on Facebook, up to 40 different pages are presented, calling for boycotting the referendum. Diplomats suspect that these pages are financed by Russia.

Dusan Reljiq, expert at the Science and Policy Foundation (SWP), told Deutsche Welles that supporters of the referendum should worry. “They must ensure the release of 50% of voters' referendum, which means over 900,000 people”. Macedonia has about two million people and a large portion of them live abroad. So Zaevi will not be at all easy to secure 50% participation.

What's Moscow's problem?

Reljic says the EU -- and Germany primarily -- constitutes 80% of Macedonia's foreign trade. German companies have invested heavily in Macedonia, the automotive supply industry with spare parts. While most of the night refinerys and metal industry belong to Greek or British enterprises. This region is economically, politically, and in every other respect with the EU. While with Russia, there are very little economic ties”, Reljic says. Russia's only serious problem is Macedonia's possible NATO membership, which means Russia would be politically expelled from this region.

Even Institute for Regional Affairs Director Dmitry Shuravjov says Russia does not prevent EU membership, but NATO membership. NATO's efforts to expand even in this country affect the current” balance, he says.

NATO membership and the prospect of EU membership are very important for the West, Reljic thinks. “Macedonia is an ethnically divided country, with a large Albanian minority, with at least 30% of the total number of controversy.” Albanian mining lives on the border with Kosovo and Albania, two countries where Albanians live. “The creation of a major Albanian state could destabilise not only Macedonia but the region as well. While the West hopes that with Macedonia's NATO membership there will be more stability in the region.”/ Pavel Los/ DW