Putin's excessive game

The Kremlin's foreign policy seems increasingly based on the assumption that all countries are as corrupt as Russia and Vladimir Putin. Recently, this was evident in Russia's alleged efforts to undermine an agreement between Greece and its small northern neighbour, the Republic of Macedonia, on the name issue. Taking it well that Macedonians will approve the September 30th referendum, their country will now be recognised as the Republic of Northern Macedonia.

The deal wasn't easy to reach. In essence, the Balkan dispute between Greece and Macedonia dates back to 1991, when Macedonia, then one of the poorest republics of the former Yugoslavia, declared its independence and adopted the name Republic of Macedonia. This appointment will continue to have real consequences for the country of 2.1 million people.

While Greece's northern region is formally known as Macedonia, the two countries ended up in a multi-year dispute. Greece vetoed the Republic of Macedonia's demands to join Western alliances and international organisations, while its neighbours, Albania and Bulgaria were admitted to NATO and in Bulgaria's case, as well as the European Union. It was admitted to the United Nations Organization in 1993 under the provisor name “ish-Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia”.

Macedonia's issue has a long and busy history. Following the withdrawal of the Ottoman Empire and the revival of historical and ento-nationalist identities in the Balkans, Macedonia split between Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia, and the identity of its incorporated people was printed. During the wars of Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic described the people of Macedonia as the “younger brothers” who had lost their way.
Meanwhile, Albanians who have lived for millenniums in the western part of Macedonia despised the Republic of Macedonia's constitutional claim to become home to the Macedonian “”. As one of the Albanian leaders saw it, Macedonians were just a “klon Slav”. Similarly, some Bulgarians, who are still injured by the victories of Greeks and Serbs over their country during the 1913 Balkan War, considered Macedonians nothing more than distracted Bulgarians who were trapped on the wrong side of the conflict.
Given the lack of diplomatic achievements nowadays, the Greece-Macedonia agreement reached at Lake Prespa (restricted to the Republic of Macedonia, Greece and Albania) received overwhelming positive answers from the international community when it was announced on June 12th. The governments of the countries of Europe and elsewhere issued support statements and encouraged Greek and Macedonian opponents of the agreement to support it.

The same cannot be said of the Kremlin. On June 6th, Greece reported that there were uncontested <x0-tests” that Russia was trying to undermine Prespa's agreement, trying to buy officials and thus intervene in Greece's internal affairs. In an outstanding statement, Greek Foreign Affairs Minister Nikos Kotzias also accused Russia of financing protests within Greece and said his country would not be intimated. Greece has already expelled two Russian diplomats, pushing Russia towards annulment of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Athens, as well as to declare the expulsion of Greek diplomats from Moscow.
Without any surprises, Russian cunning has also been detected north of the Greek border. According to Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, Russia has financed anti-government protests and has urged Macedonian businesses oriented by Russia to stir violence on the eve of the September 30th referendum.

Russia has not kept its desire to weaken secret NATO. Rejecting the Prespa deal, it is hoping to prevent Macedonia from joining the Alliance. But even under pressure, Putin's Russia will not agree that it opposes the approach between Greece and Macedonia, and no longer to apologise for active measures taken to intervene in the internal affairs of Greece and Macedonia.

Russia's opposition to NATO enlargement is often explained as an attempt to undermine countries that were once allies of the Soviet Union to approach the new strategic partner. But Macedonia has never been a member of the Warsaw Treaty, nor is it particularly important for Russian interests.

In contrast, Greece- a NATO member since 1952 has, however, maintained a positive relationship with Putin's Russia, even rejecting a European Union against the country's alleged nervous agents' attacks on the United Kingdom last year.

The Kremlin is now arrogantly attacking Greece's interests, perhaps underestimating the importance of the Prespa deal for the Greek government. The irony lies in the fact that Putin has criticised the United States for overcoming and striving to impose its values on others. In the Balkans and elsewhere, Putin has tried to present himself as a reasonable partner who will not raise questions about human rights, nor will he insist on respecting any particular set of values.

Now it is clear, however, that neither friends nor enemies should tolerate Russia's foreign policy. The Kremlin has increased its secret intervention policy in other countries' political processes. It has tracked and attempted to kill former members of its secret services in NATO member states. And apparently, it has been trying to undermine a difficult agreement between the two neighbours in the Balkans, who are trying to overcome decades of distrust.

Looking forward, it will be important to remember that Russia's foreign policy is motivated not only by resentment and grief but also by a disturbing awareness of its decline. The leaders of Greece and Macedonia (North) did well in responding to Russian aggression with honesty and courage. The question is whether others will do the same!

/ Project Syndicate