Is Erdogan losing his ally, and will there be an early election again?

Governance alone, without having the need for coalitions, has always been a key electoral goal of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey, which claims the coalitions present risks for political stability, and prevents fast decisions.

The AKP achieved that the only government Turkey, only after it first moved to power in 2002. In the June 24th elections, marking Turkey's transition to a presidential system, AKP founding head President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a new mandate in the post with 52.6 per cent of the vote, gaining abundant competencies under the new system of government.

However, The AKP failed to secure an absolute majority in the 600-seat parliament, which means it would have to accept a kind of “secret coalition” with smaller opposition parties to adopt laws.

In the November 2015 elections, this party received 49.5 per cent of the vote and secured 317 seats in parliament, which at that time had 550 seats. On June 24th, The AKP won 42.5 per cent of the vote and 295 seats in parliament, falling somewhat from the 301 seats needed to have the majority alone.

The result drew the far-right National Action Party (MHP), as a natural partner in the AKP coalition. The MHP, which entered this election into alliance with the AKP and backed Erdogan's re-election, received 11.1 per cent of the vote and 49 seats in parliament.

But during the campaign, the two parties showed they are not in a perfect union, including big issues, such as the state of emergency, determined since the failed coup attempt in July 2016. MHP leader Xhevdet Bahceli confirmed that the emergency situation must continue, though Erdogan signaled that it would not last beyond July 19th, when the 6th deadline expires.

Also, Bahcel has repeatedly demanded a broad amnesty for many prisoners, which has been strongly rejected by the government. At the first meeting after the June 27th elections, Erdogan and Bahcel agreed to put an end to the state of emergency, but Bahcelli appears to have received a major concession in exchange.

It becomes known that both parties will consider changes to the anti-terror law, the internal security law and the penal code, which would compensate for the removal of the emergency situation, which in other words makes emergency permanent.

The deal appears to be a sign of <x0modus operandi”, between the two partners in the coming period. Simply put, this MHP has red lines, the AKP will have to make concessions to achieve what it wants. During the bilateral meeting, Erdogan and Bahcelli agreed to establish a joint and permanent national commission to work on ironing out differences between the two sides.

However, despite the common will for reconciliation, Erdogan hates sharing power with others. While the AKP leader has never been in opposition, or had a coalition partner, while his party has always been strong in parliament. The only exception was the June 2015 elections in which the AKP lost its parliamentary majority.

However, Erdogan maneuvered successfully to avoid a coalition government, and to ensure holding new elections in November that year, which replaced the AKP as a parliamentary majority.

Now Erdogan is equipped with very broad executive powers, but his party does not have a majority in parliament, causing many people to ask whether history will repeat itself. Can Erdogan call early elections in the autumn, in a bid to boost his parliamentary support, and end the pressure to join the MHP, or any other party?

Atilla Sertel, Republican Party MP, the main opposition force, believes the AKP and the MHP will inevitably be divided. “The MHP and the AKP cannot walk together for a long time. That would not be good for Turkey either. That's why I think there's going to be early elections” he said.

Jusuf Halacoglu, a prominent deputy of the opposition party Mir (IYI), believes Erdogan will find other ways to end his dependence on the MHP -- that is, he will try to buy lawmakers from other parties. Because the AKP-MHP coalition has an absolute majority of 344 seats in parliament, the opposition has little chance of undermining Erdogan's laws or decrees.

In theory, however, the possibility of the MHP changing sides exists. Also, any possible co-operation with the IYI party could cause strain in the AKP-MHP alliance.

Under the new system, early legislative elections could be called by the president or parliament, which requires a three-month majority.

However, if they are summoned by the president, early presidential elections are mandatory, along with parliamentary. Meanwhile, Turkey is preparing to hold local elections in March 2019. There are already rumours that the AKP will seek to approach these elections in time, in October or November of this year, prior to what many people see as an inevitable deterioration of economic difficulties in the country.

On the other hand, this recalls the possibility that the ruling party could seek early parliamentary elections at the same time as local ones, in an effort to regain the majority in parliament. /In Albanian from the world.al