Trump's decision expected but the consequences are not

Donald Trump told “Jo” the atomic agreement with Iran. But its refusal makes the world more dangerous. Disarming becomes more difficult, diplomacy depreciated in favor of militarism

No one believed in a miracle anymore. Even prior to the public making of Trump's decision, there was more speculation about how harsh the decision would be - exiting the atmosphere agreement, if any open door had any diplomatic effect on European efforts. Now it's known: The U.S. finally dismissed Joint Computer Plan of Action, JCPOA, atomic agreement with Iran, sanctions are restored: Of all the previously discussed variants, this is the most dangerous.

More secure, more peaceful the world is not made with this decision: Shares of the weapons concert began to be added that during the announcement of Trump's decision. Nor does success become easier at Donald Trump's expected encounter with the Korean ruler Kim Jong Un.

Reason: The deal has not succeeded in protecting American interests

Donald Trump's reasoning about exiting the atomic agreement with Iran: The deal has not succeeded in protecting American interests. But how exiting this deal will protect American interests remains a secret to Trump. The atomic deal prevented Iran effectively from building an atom bomb and prevented an arms race in the region from taking place. That was her target, and he was in that form complete. Even the new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo does not doubt that Iran fulfills the obligations that come out of the deal.

Trump, so analyses a French diplomat for the Crisis Group, “has no problem with the deal, he has problems with the Islamic Republic of Iran”. Therefore, even negotiations between Europeans and the US these months were destined to fail. Despite European concessions, despite Macron's diplomatic offensive, Merkel and Johnson recently.

Trump has been constantly surrounded in the White House with representatives of Iran's hard line. Besides Pompeii, there's a new security adviser, John Bolton. He wrote in 2017: the declared aim of America must be to end the Islamic Revolution of 1979 before his 40th anniversary.” The notion of “the regime” is being sounded more and more frighteningly. Scary because even before the war in Iraq in 2003, John Bolton played a central role. The catastrophic consequences of a international fight against law for the entire region are known, even though the reasoning on this war was based on lies.
In his reasoning about exiting the atomic agreement with Iran, the US president was explicitly referring to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in public appearance last week. While this public appearance was evidently a propagandistic show. The old and new material was mixed and repacked, with no connection to the current state of the Iranian atomic programme.

European Unity

Trump's decision questions 12 years of intensive diplomatic efforts with Iran, without offering any alternative. Now many things will depend on the unity of Europeans, their determination and will, together with other partners China and Russia, to provide incentives for Iran, despite the US's accession from the agreement, to respect its terms. The gap in transatlantic relations will deepen.

Donald Trump's decision will soon strengthen the conservative forces in Iran. And with that, the likelihood of the situation escalating dangerously in a region of numerous conflicts -- Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Establishing a security architecture in the region that respects the legitimate interests of all parties is pushed to a much more distant future. But that would be the only way to achieve true peace in the region.

/DW