What does Putin want in Syria?

NEW YORK ʹ on February 7th and 8th, according to Western sources, a United States-led air strike on forces linked to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad killed at least 300 Russians, all employees of the private Wagner military company. Russian Foreign Minister, however, claims that only five Russian citizens, without any connection to the Russian armed forces, were killed and few others were injured. Sergei Lavrov has even condemned Western reports of those deaths as “attempts to speculate on war. ”

At first glance, Russia's response is somewhat surprising. At the time of increasing tensions with the United States, the attack could be a golden opportunity for the Kremlin to condemn its rivals. And usually, Russia takes advantage of these possibilities: only recently, Russia's UN envoy, Vasily Nebeznya, attacked his American counterpart, Nikki Haley, who had called Vladimir Putin's legally elected government” “regim”.

Furthermore, Russia is eager to consider those killed in battle as heroes. Military pilot Roman Filipov, killed in battle a few days before the American air strike, was born for his bravery. Andrei Malakhov, a television personality for the television network Rosiya 1 linked to the Kremlin, is currently in Syria, making it a documentary for Filipov.

However, in the case of the U.S. air strike, it was not Russian soldiers who died, but the Mexicans whose participation in the conflict reflects the Kremlin's desire to maintain some convincing ingratitude. The Russian foreign minister's statement in response to Western reports says everything. The Russian citizens were in Syria”, said, “with their own will and for various reasons,” and “the minister has no authority to support the currency and legality of their decisions. ”

Russia has used such a force to cover its past exploits, including during the era of the Crimea's illegal annexation in 2014. The Kremlin could then argue that this was not Russian invasion, but was the will of people living in Crime.

Similarly, in Syria, mercenaries allowed the Kremlin to hide Russian involvement, like its losses, which many observors had predicted, from the beginning of its intervention, that its consequences would be too high. Putin certainly does not want to be accused of repeating Afghanistan's catastrophic war since 1979-1989, which helped lead the Soviet Union to collapse.

That is why Putin is taking great care in presenting Russia's military operations as too limited, undertaken only with the aim of getting rid of the Islamic State. [ Footnote] ISIS]. In fact, in late December, on a visit to Russia's Cometim air base, Putin announced troop withdrawal, precisely because the target was officially achieved. The defence minister had declared that the situation was “stabilised,” after 35 thousand militants and 700 training camps had been eliminated.

Officially, Russia wanted to keep only limited forces in Syria at the Russian military permanent bases in Tartus and Comtim. These forces would remove <x0) emissions related to Russian national interests.” For Russian mercenaries, authorities have done their best not to list them as Russian forces.

But the entire intervention in Russia, including the Mercedes, has been basically about protecting Russian national interests. More clearly, the Assad regime's support allows Russia to maintain its support point in the Middle East, sending the message seeking popular revolts that the collapse of Russia's allies will not succeed.

Testing Russia's new military technology, such as high - precision missiles and other weapons, has reinforced this message.

Another reason for Russia's continued involvement in Syria is that, by some estimates, more than 5,000 Muslim fighters of Russian origin from Central Asia and the Caucasus are fighting with Isis in that country and elsewhere. The Kremlin is justly concerned about the future of military-expert radicals returning to Russian soil. The western argument that Russian intervention in Syria only increases the existence of terrorist attacks on Russian territories does not bring weight to Putin. If the United States can defend their invasion in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria in national security terms, so can Russia and Syria.

Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, president of a small Russian republic of Ingashitia in the Northern Caucasus, recently declared that the Syria operation restored Russia's reputation as a world power. [Putin would not accept that, but it requires support from the leader of Ignushetia, who, being neighbouring Chechnya and Daguestan, are fertile land for Islamist radicalism.] He is right: key actors, including Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, are being forced to recognise the fact that Russia must have its say in determining the region's fate. At a time when international sanctions are heavy, Russia's poor economic conditions, the Kremlin sought to ensure that its people and the world must recognize this reality.

Project Syndicate Translated from Periscope