European Security in Trump Age

MUS At the Munich Security Conference last year, the state of fear among European security officials was evident. Three years earlier, Russia had annexed the Crimea and had conducted incubations in eastern Ukraine. And in the previous year, a narrow majority of British voters had decided to leave the European Union, while the Americans had elected a president who was critical of NATO and admired Russian President Vladimir Putin openly.

However, the West has so far survived Donald Trump's era. And despite continued confusion over Brex and the difficulties of German leaders in forming a new government, the EU seems to have returned. Most of the member states economies are doing well, and the administration of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is reliving into the European idea.

Although the Trump administration has continued to send mixed signals about its readiness to support American commitments, the US has, however, fulfilled former President Barack Obama's promise to strengthen NATO's military stance in Baltic and Poland. And on the eve of a NATO summit at the end of this year, the US has indicated it will do even more to ensure the territorial integrity of the Baltic and the Scandinavian states.

Moreover, the fear that Trump might try to create a new deal with the Kremlin, similar to that of Yalta é, in which Eastern European countries would be abandoned to their fate, they have not disappeared at all. In fact, the biggest concern now is that US-Russia relations are becoming increasingly frustrated, even at the borders of irrationality.

Meanwhile, Russia seems ready to withdraw its army from a difficult situation in Syria, where it has so far played its cards well. The same cannot be said of Ukraine, where the Kremlin has learned that conquests are not a good way to make friends. Facing that country for generations to come, Russia has faced a geopolitical barrier to historical proportions.

Sooner or later, Russia would like to reduce its losses and leave eastern Ukraine. It has already suggested a limited UN peacekeeping operation there. And while Russia has not yet expressed readiness to give up control of the Ukraine-Russia border, nor has it made progress in talks with the US, Putin surely knows that the status quo is unstable.

Does all of this mean that the fear of a year ago has been suspended? Not at all. The strategic shocks of recent years have left deep wounds and pushed Europe into new and unexplored waters. A decade ago, EU leaders spoke with confidence about designing foreign stability. Today, their priority is to prevent the instability of “and” in Europe.

At the same time, there is growing awareness that, while the US is still the main guarantor of European security, it may not be forever. Even if a portion of the rhetoric accompanying proposals for an EU defence union is past, the bloc's leaders have the right to focus more on defence and security issues than in the past. Whether it is done through “defence industry policies” or something else, the EU must develop its capacity to develop common reactions to future threats.

That is true even if the Kremlin repented of its actions in 2014, which led to the deployment of Western military forces to Russia's borders. After all, Russia still holds the Crimea, where there are many military bases. And besides Russia, Europe is surrounded by ongoing conflicts. Tensions are increasing from Indus to the Nile and throughout North Africa, where any turmoil will have an immediate impact on European security. As Europeans well know, there is no way to build a wall in the Mediterranean.

In addition, it is disturbing that the Trump administration does not even speak about preserving the post-war liberal international order. Instead, she views the world as a multizero strategic competition, where the US should take care of only itself. Unfortunately, in a world without joint institutions to curb sovereign states, not allowing them to escalate conflicts with each other, the dangers of a total war will increase greatly.

The US says it is adding its commitment to European security. But seeing China's military power increase and the strategic importance of the Asia-Peace area, the US will have no choice but to be guided eastward. In fact, despite all Trump complaints about America's excessive contribution to NATO, the US, which has now directed much of military spending, towards the Asia-Peacework region.

So, while the fears of 2017 have somewhat faded, and a sense of normality has been restored, Europeans can no longer avoid taking responsibility for their defence. Even after Trump is gone, soft power will not be enough in a world of intense conflict.

Taken from the world.al