Crisis turns into Balkans, west stands and watches

In the first six months of US President Donald Trump's administration, five foreign policy challenges have dominated the national and international scene. China's expanded economic and military role, Russia's close relations with Europe and the Middle East, ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Syria, threats stemming from North Korea and Venezuela, and the future of Europe, among populist movements in the United Kingdom and France that already seek to take place among world policymakers.

Through all of this, it has been easy to forget that, not long ago, much of the world's attention was focused on the Balkans. While war broke out at Europe's borders, many feared that instability would cause a broader conflict. Horrible wars and sacrificed lives, especially in Bosnia (1992-1995) and Kosovo (in 1999), destroyed decades of achievements throughout the region. And the 1984 Sarajevo Olympics a symbol of world peace and co-operation seemed a distant memory.

Today, the wars that ended Yugoslavia are getting dimmed by attention. The last major act of violence in the region -- the burning of the US Embassy in Belgrade in 2008 -- an event I remember very well, because I served as an American ambassador at the time -- has occurred nearly a decade ago. In the years that followed, Balkan challenges have left the front pages, as well as most leaders' minds with a role in the region.

And yet, many of the fundamental problems that concern the Balkans are still unresolved. The Dayton Accords that ended the war in Bosnia in 1995 offer a poor and often dysfunctional structure of self-government. Serbia and Kosovo have still disagreed -- a necessary step -- if both want to achieve the self-declared goal of membership in the European Union. Internal challenges still continue in Macedonia and in EU member Croatia. And in the meantime, the best and smartest of the region are looking for opportunities elsewhere. The region's major potential for economic development, from tourism to innovation and information technology, is being explored very little.

Of course, geopolitical problems and ethnic tensions are boiling and approaching the surface once again in the Balkans for the potential danger of the region. The question is, will Western leaders observe and intervene on time?

Eager for Economic Assistance

The good news is that there is hope for progress, and in this case, it begins with the economy. The Western Balkans need economic support, as became clear at a recent meeting of Berlin Process members in Trieste, which focused on regional economic integration. To that end, the European Commission plans to channel 48m euros (about $57m) into new private sector financing opportunities, which will promote interconnection projects, support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and boost regional economic co-operation. These efforts are intended to create a framework, which could lead to deeper co-operation and away from neighbouring begging policies from countries competing to obtain financing from the European Union. At the same time, there have been many cases of business leaders who have not allowed borders to interfere with their work, always advancing efforts for closer co-operation.

Foreign parties are also leaving marks on regional economies. China, for example, has shown great interest in investing in Balkan infrastructure, as part of the “Belt Initiative and Road” an ambitious and multinational programme that has become the priority of Beijing politics. China has already had a visible impact on several projects in the region, including a high-speed railway line connecting Belgrade and Budapest; The Adriatic highway, which will connect Albania, Montenegro and EU members Greece and Italy; And the port of Piraeus, which a Chinese company has purchased to create a sea route from Greece through the Western Balkans, to EU markets.

The Solution Begins at Home

But now, more than ever, the Balkans are interested in closer engagement with the West to help address the region's problems. European leaders, mostly Germany, continue to look at the region, while Russia preserves its presence to surprise some observers in Serbia's energy sector. Despite its often difficult relations with the region, the United States will have to strengthen their presence once again. After all, Washington has considerable interests in the Balkans, especially in the NATO-led Kosovo Force, as well as in foreign direct investments. (According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United States invested $17m in the Western Balkans from 2003 to 2012.) Moreover, it is equally important that Balkan peoples have a clear and accurate awareness of the consequences of increasing China's influence, which will be active in the region for years to come.

This does not mean that foreign actors are the solution to the region's problems. On the contrary, it is important that not only governments but also leading social actors in the Balkans -- from businesses to universities to nongovernmental organisations -- work outside to help shape the region's future. The solution begins from within.

Indeed, some hopeful measures can be taken by the fact that Belgrade and Pristina have opened a dialogue to ease tensions between them. Meanwhile, Macedonia's new government, which came to power in June, has already made major steps towards improving relations with its neighbours, addressing possible solutions to a dispute with Greece over recognition of Macedonia's name; promising increased co-operation between Skopje and Tirana; and, after two decades of talks, signing a friendship treaty with Bulgaria.

However, this progress will have to be accelerated, as other problematic developments -- including major inflows of migrants to the region from Africa and the Middle East -- exacerbate the growth of nationalist Muslims, Croats and Serbs, who support ethnic and social discontent. The Western Balkans will best meet these challenges with only help from the rest of the world.

The Balkans can still prove to be a surprising success story in the coming years. But as the region moves beyond the attention of global leaders, its chances of being absorbed in the instability of its past will increase if the world continues to stay and watch. / Stratfor ʹ In Albanian from the World.al