Balkans, Europe's Future Crisis

At a recent closed meeting, with experts, a well-formed German official was asked what is the problem that bothers him most in Europe. His answer came without hesitation: The Western Balkans, where a new crisis is under way, as Turkey and Russia are disturbing shit.

In its worst scenario, Russia and Turkey will encourage their “relatives in the Balkans, Serbia and Albania to help revis the region's borders. The Serbian government, with Russia's support, could annex large parts of Bosnia populated by ethnic Serbs. Turkish support could help Albania get a similar maneuver, not only in Albanian Kosovo, but also in Macedonia, where the majority of Albania's large minority want to rejoin the country.

This course of events can hardly happen, writes W SJ. While some of the territories claimed by Greater Albania are in Serbia, it would be difficult for the two countries to agree on a new map. But this is not an impossible result, even if the idea is more likely to inspire some type of alas James Bond than a foreign minister. And an increasing number of Bond-type bastards seem to be appearing in world politics these days.

There is a serious reality based on Germany's concerns. The Balkans are being unblocked and the West must now worry about more than Russian interventions. Turkey is increasingly becoming a NINO ( NATO only on behalf of the ruling and despite Turkey's deep doubts about Russia, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is co-operating more closely with President Vladimir Putin.

Turkey and Russia have joined by their opposition to Germany and the European Union. Russians don't just hate him NATO? They see the EU as an obstacle to Russia's historic role in European affairs. Turkey has also turned against The EU and is seeking leverage against Germany and its other members. For Russia and Turkey, the ability to cause Europe problems in the Balkans, at relatively low risk and cost, is something that cannot be left behind.

The prospect of EU membership for countries like Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Bosnia has done more than anything else to maintain fragile peace in the Western Balkans. Each Balkan country would like to be part of the EU rather than an ally of Russia or Turkey.

But hopes for short-term EU membership are fading. Europe is losing Britain and has had a hard time managing relations with members like Hungary and Poland. The 28th will soon be 27 EU members who have little desire to get five new Balkan states, which will make the union even more useless and expect financial assistance at a time when the EU budget, after Brex, will strain.

Serbs and Albanians are signaling that if the West departs, they will have to look from the east, and that means switching to a nationalist agenda with Russian and Turkish aid.

For the EU, a new round of Balkan chaos would be a disaster: refugees, crime, radicalisation among Balkan Muslims, greater potential for hostile powers to gain influence on EU spending. But the EU does not think it can manage the Balkans on its own. The United States will have to be part of the solution, the Germans say.

Will he play the ball in the States? The engagement in the far-off Balkan disputes to make Germany's life easier is not exactly Donald Trump's idea of foreign policy. Bill Clinton fought for two years to keep the United States in post-Yugoslav wars. Mr. Trump may be even more skeptical of the intervention and of addressing the possibility of a new round of Balkan wars with the colder sensitivity Barack Obama displayed in Syria. That would be a serious mistake. Although disputes in the Balkans are insignificant compared to the biggest problems in other countries, what is happening in the Balkans does not always stay in the Balkans, and NATO and the EU can essentially be shaken by another round of bloodshed in the Balkans. The crisis has the potential to redefine US and EU relations for decades.

Europeans argue that relatively small, short-term American investments -- active diplomacy and building American forces in Kosovo -- could be more. But we have a president who cannot find this argument convincing. Mr. Trump for foreign policy seems to be that the US has allowed its allies to enjoy a decades-long free journey. Europeans who worry about Balkan peace should think about how they can persuade a skeptical White House to engage. The old polls to NATO solidarity, protection of freedom, fears from Russia may not be enough. Mr. Trump thinks of a deal and Berlin should think about how to put it on the table. /Taker from the Wall Street Journal é prepare Lapsy.al