Erdogan in the Balkans: A neo-Ottoman search?

“Neo-Ottomanism” is on the lips of all until more specifically strategic depth of Ahmet Davutoglu's treaty is an occasion for an external pro-active policy that is inspired by Turkey's imperial heritage, is translated into almost all Balkan languages.

There is no shortage of critics, embracing Ankara's geopolitical aspirations and the resurrected ties with local Muslim communities. American diplomats have also expressed concern about Turkey's <x0mambition” in the Balkans.

But on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Serbia, it is difficult to find “ambiciate” neo-Ottoman. Serbia is far from a historic ally, to ease the one in which it suffers from homesickness for Ottoman sultania (high century independence, a Turkish TV series of grand Solomon).

The visit has a much more pragmatic purpose. Twelve new agreements were signed with the Serbian government, including an update of the Free Trade Agreement. Together with President Aleksandar Vucic, Erdogan pledged to boost annual trade circulation between the two countries from $800m to $1 billion. According to its size, Serbia is Turkey's most important market in the former Yugoslavia, well ahead of nearby countries, such as Bosnia or Kosovo.

This is not to deny the role Islam and the Ottoman past play. Erdogan's trip to Sandzak's majority Muslim area on 11 October is confirming his role as leader of a community crossing the borders of the Turkish republic. Novi Pazar, capital of the Sandzak region divided between Serbia and Montenegro, was covered with signs with the face of Turkish president and “hosgeldiniz” (Welcomed to Turkish) with large letters.

“Tito came to visit us only once. Erdogan's arrival is the second”, said a local resident interviewed by “Al Jazeera Balkans”. “There are no families in Novi Pazar without a relative living in Turkey”, he added.

But Erdogan's main concern to visit Sandzak is his fight against an exiled cleric Fetullah Gylen, a former rival ally who is accused of organising the coup effort of 2016. Thegylenistic network, now considered a terrorist organisation by Ankara, operates through a large number of schools and humanitarian organisations in the former Yugoslavia, including Novi Pazar. The network once was the parade of Turkish power moderators abroad, but now, the Turkish government seeks to dismantle it, whether in Bosnia, Georgia or Central Asia. Erdogan's message to Novi Pazar is clear: Sandzak is my turf, not Gylen.

It is wonderful that Erdogan has found a partner like Aleksandar Vukic. Serbia's president lowered his teeth at the ultranationalist Radical Party in the 1990s and served as Slobodan Milosevic's information minister. But now it is the voice of pragmatism: “is not 1389. Serbia and Turkey are friendly countries”, he said, referring to the year of the Kosovo battle between Serbian forces and the Ottoman army, or otherwise known as Vidovdan Beta.

Vuqic is now a partisan of EU integration, fosters ties with NATO and Russia, brings investment from the Gulf and has also hosted the annual summit of China and Eastern European countries (the so-called 16+ 1). Turkey is another feather on the lid of Vuciqi; its foreign policy dexterity sparks Josip Broz Tito's era.

Nationalists in Serbia happily fill Erdogan's war with the US and the EU and friendship with Putin.

The cost of Turkey's engagement is minimal. Nationalists in Serbia encourage Erdogan's disputes with the US, The EU and the friendship with Putin. Those who show parallelism between Vuciqi's powerful tactics and Erdogan's authoritarian ways are simply ignored.

Turkey is seen as a partner rather than a threat, as its leverage appears to have been exceeded. In 2009-10, Foreign Minister Davutoglu held ambitions to become the main mediator of the Western Balkans, especially in Bosnia. The tripartite initiative he has supported along with his colleagues from Belgrade and Sarajevo is still alive, but his influence is symbolic.

Turkey is now focusing mainly on Syria and the Middle East, the source of its most pressing challenges. The Balkans are good for a successor, even though AKP members, Erdogan's party, competed in elections in Macedonia and Bulgaria. Davutoglu, who took a soft stance for the region, associated with former Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic and spent summer holidays in Kosovo, is now retired and there is no one else who wants to work on relations with Balkan countries. As Erdogan's visit briefly brings the Balkans to the spotlight, where it is unlikely to boost Turkish interest in a long-term period.

Stronger ties with Serbia are, of course, a reward for Turkey at a time when the once fashionable doctrine of “zero problems with neighbours” has long been forgotten. But they cannot be a player for either Ankara or the Western Balkans. /Periscopi/

It says: Dimitar Bechev

Subtitles by Leapin Periscope