Dramatic elections in Catalonia, among those who support and oppose independence, are not the solution

When the Catalans vote for a new regional government on December 21st of this year, police should not use the violence they used and therefore the result will be valid, but the Spanish prime minister's decision to announce elections, combined with the establishment of a direct order from Madrid, will not magically solve the problem.

All you can do, and maybe it will go wrong before election day comes, the fight between cats and mouse between Madrid and the Catalan pro-independence movement will enter a new phase.

It is not yet clear whether all separatist parties will participate. If they do, it does not seem so possible to preserve the unity they now have and which has given them great strength. Conservators and anticapitalists were always strange and unnatural allies.

Oryol Jonqueras, who was dismissed as deputy prime minister with the cease of the entire Catalonia government on Friday, is expected to become the leader of pro-independence movements after the Republican Left of Catalonia [Road]. The ECC is stronger than its rivals.

His warning Sunday that his move could take on <x0 decisions that would hardly be understandable” reveals a terrible dilemma. If his party stands still, he will be accused of betraying the claim that Catalonia is an independent republic even if other states do not recognise him. If you don't stay [set.i.i. translators: it's about whether you don't participate in elections] you'll be accused of being a coward.

Mariano Rajoy's government in Madrid has demanded that even the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, stay so that his voters will appreciate his behavior. Puigdemont, however, was a compromise candidate in January 2016 and will likely withdraw. His conservative party [ DPA, which eventually turned separatist, has obviously lost its position as the dominant party in Catalonj.

With the unionists [who support Catalonia's stance with Spain] demonstrated in Barcelona on Sunday [where it was reported that there were over 350 thousand people on the street] and with many politicians who have already launched the campaign, the separatist side appears to be considering the possibilities ahead of itself.

This is probably the best moment for independence moves to join the elections. With some of the leaders held in prison, but they have the opportunity to run while Puidgemont and others face serious court cases, but with increased sympathy. The memory of police violence during the October 1st chaotic referendum will remain fresh until election day.

Rajoy also expects the non-separatist majority to come out and vote. This is dangerous because the October 1st police violence may have contracted the numbers they have.

Meanwhile, legal shares on Puigdemont for deliberate violation of the Spanish constitution is possible to provoke a new tour of massive peaceful demonstrations. Separatists know that violence could damage their case dramatically, and Puigdemont on Saturday called for civic and peaceful behaviour, although he does not control the entire movement.

On Sunday the only violence came from a small ultra-right group who joined the union demonstration.

Separatists will look for other ways to keep people mobilised. The remains of the fired government can counter instructions given to 200 thousand employees to avoid direct control of Madrid. At a more local level, separatist leaders can launch a campaign of disobedience that leads them to trial.

Election results are impossible to predict, especially because Catalonia appears to be split almost equally into two parts. In the last regional elections of September 2015, separatists won 48% of the vote and thus received most of the seats.

After last week's events, a victory by unionists could be too humiliating for separatists, but Rajoy took the risk and a full victory of independence movements could have given them the support they lacked from EU governments.

It would also force his conservative party to accept that the constitution, where the Spaniards, and the Catalans, granted it massively in 1978, should be rewritten. ) Guardian, Periscope