Putin lost the West, that wasn't his plan.

By Michael Kimmage

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, he was throwing dice against the West. The West understood as Europe and the United States he certainly assumed would not have the courage to save Ukraine. Neither united nor effective, the West had a long history of failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Russia's victory would prove that the golden age of the West was over, releasing Russia to partner with China and other emerging countries, returning to the world stage again.

Putin's Zari was not rewarded. As the war continues and continues, the Kremlin has followed a bilateral approach to the West. Within the country, the Kremlin has demonstrated it, encouraging the Russians to gather around Putin in a civilisation battle. From abroad, Russia has tried to split the West, removing skeptics and dissidents from the pro-Ukrainian coalition. In this project, Donald Trump's election in November was supposed to be a turning point. The West would be torn to pieces, leaving Ukraine to Russia.

These hopes have resulted in illusions. After initial enthusiasm, Trump has cooled off with his Russian counterpart, recently referring to him as the crazy “”. He can still act according to his stated desire to do business with Putin, but will not be able to save either Ukraine or the West. The stubborn facts make this impossible, transmit Periscope.

Russia's brutal war has terrified and shocked the West, pushing it into a collective effort for content and eventually turning Europe against Russia. These developments, far from being trivial or temporary, will limit Russia's prospects for security and prosperity for decades to come.

Russia has always needed the West and benefited from contact with it. Because of an unnecessary struggle, Putin has lost it forever.

Far from being disconnected, Russia has been an organic part of European affairs since the 17th century. By the 18th century, Russia was an empire in Europe, after joining Prussia and the empire of Habsburgs in the division of Poland. Russian soldiers arrived in Paris in 1814, and throughout the 19th century, Russia was essential to war and peace in Europe. Dynasty Romanov had close relatives in most European capitals, while the assimilation of European culture triggered an artistic rebirth in Russia. Trade and technology from Europe increased Russia's wealth and power.

The isolation stages marked Russia's 20th century. However, the Soviet Union, a child of war and revolution, never ceased to be a European power. The Soviet Union worshiped Karl Marx, a European thinker, and his purpose was always to shape Europe, which by 1945 had become a complex reality for countless Europeans. After World War II, Moscow ruled half of Europe, leaving the other half preoccupied with the Soviet threat. In 1989, as Soviet power began to break down, reforming movements in the Soviet Union were crossed by revolutionary movements in Eastern and Central Europe and vice versa. Mikhail Gorbachev spoke with lyricism for a “joint European home” from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

Putin's relations with the West have been less heartfelt. Fixed by the alleged failures of the 1990s, he sought to partially block NATO's expansion instead of negotiating a series of reasonable requirements regarding bases, troop stationing and deployment of missiles. Failure to reach a working relationship with NATO, Putin allowed his fear of Ukraine's independence to spread. This led to the annexation of Crime from Russia and the intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Eight years later, his zeal for rulership over Ukraine erupted in a terrible war, provoking the worst division with the West in Russia's modern history.

But it is a mistake to say that Putin was intent on sharing Russia's relations with the West. He wanted to reorient them in his favor, regaining a role in European affairs by weakening the West. If Russia had won its war quickly in 2022, he could have taken what he wanted. Russia could have claimed a place in Eastern Europe. A condemned West could have bowed to Russian ability, destroying NATO's alliance. Panic neighbouring countries could have separated from NATO or the European Union, gaining Moscow's favor. The transatlantic relationship, the foundation of the West, could have broken.

None of this happened. Instead, Mr. Putin has done something far worse for his country than the launch of an unprofitable and useless war: It has forced Europe to be organised as a military counterweight against Russia. Germany is quickly re-armed; new models of consultation and military co-operation are spreading across Europe; Finland and Sweden have joined NATO and Brex has been set aside by a comprehensive security agreement between Britain and the European Union. Enormous resources are being collected to keep Russia out of Europe. Russia's only path to an upcoming partnership with Europe is to end the war under the conditions of Ukraine, which Putin will not do.

Putin has also managed to ostracise an American president, Donald Trump, who was unable to bring Russia back to the Group of 7 countries from which Russia was expelled in 2014 or to include Russia in normal European diplomacy procedures. When Trump returned to his post, he did not seem to understand what Putin had given up on the war. Russia can no longer use obedience in Ukraine or Europe, nor is there enough force to conquer the first one, not to mention the latter. Putin was expelled from Europe. Trump, even if he wanted, cannot save Russia from its isolation.

At the NATO summit this week, there will be heated debates about all those the alliance has not achieved since the start of the war in Ukraine. Ukrainians are still suffering. Russia is still taking territory. China, Iran and North Korea are still supporting Russian war efforts. The Russian economy is still going through difficulties; there is no visible movement against the war in Russia. But Russia has been effectively stopped in Ukraine, and Europe can live without Russia, as well as the United States. The West can cope with Russia's loss, however good it would be to have a peaceful Russia near him.

The loss of the West from Russia, on the contrary, is a serious obstacle that will take generations to correct. It's Putin's choice and Russian tragedy. No. York Times

*Autori, Michael Kimmage is a Cold War historian and US-Russia relations expert