Analysis on “What does Trump's return mean for the Balkans?

“What does Trump return mean for the Balkans?”

By Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of the Gulf State Analytics

Most discussions in Washington about the Trump administration's approach to global issues concern Ukraine, China, the Middle East and recently Greenland. There's little talk about the Western Balkans. However, changes in US foreign policy in the region could derail status quo- the fragile that prevails there.

The current state of the Western Balkans issues and the delicate geopolitical balance have prevented Bosnia and Herzegovina from slipping back into civil war, keeping the conflict Serbia Kosovo frozen for the past 26 years as well.

Serbian nationalists, in particular, hope for the return of the US president, Donald TrumpWhite House. They are optimistic that his administration will link Washington closer to Belgrade and the Bosnian Serb state, Republika Srpska.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik They want the United States to oppose the governments and other Western institutions that strongly support Kosovo's independence and Bosnia and Herzegovina's centralised structure, as set out by the 1995 Dayton Agreement, the US-brokered peace agreement that strictly divided the war-torn country into the two main entities of the Bosniak-Serbe Republic (Srpska) and the Bosniak-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Both entities exist under a central government that has a rotating presidency among the three main communities -- Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs.

Under the flag of protecting Serbian interests and advancing the cause of the Serbian union, Dodik has spent years undermining the Dayton Agreement, undermining Bosnia's national institutions through various actions considered dangerous and destabilizing by the United States and other Western governments.

In practical terms, this would imply facilitating US measures against pro-Russian Serbs who wish to unite Serbs and oppose sanctions against Moscow. US measures have been sanctions against Dodik and ultranationalists, including Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, who formerly headed Serbia's Security Intelligence Agency and was known for his ties with Moscow and the attack on anti-Putin voices in Serbia's Russian immigrant community.

Moreover, the previous US administration recently imposed sanctions on NIS, the Serbian oil and gas company, which is owned by most of Gazprom. It is not hard to imagine that Trump would be able to ease pressure on Serbia for its relations with Russia, while silent on human rights issues in Serbia.

Serbs who believe in the shares of “Greater Serbia” claim to land in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere outside the borders of modern Serbia.

During the 1990s, pursuing the goal of then-Serbian leader, Slobodan Milosevic, for a “Greater Serbia” was one of the major causes of wars that broke up the region.

Although Vucic has said his government has no interest in revising international borders, many of Serbia's neighbours suspect Belgrade is patiently waiting for the possibility of realising “Greater Serbia” as a long-term goal.

A 13-page statement, adopted by Serbia and Republika Srpska in June 2024, outlines a vision of Serbian domination that would again put part of Kosovo under Belgrade's control and violate Bosnian sovereignty.

Shortly after Trump's election victory last November, Vucic received a call Very warm “” with him, invited him to Belgrade and praised him, saying he knew Very much for Serbia” And noted that the level of support for Trump in Serbia was higher than in any other European country.

Richard Green, the special presidential envoy for the peace negotiations in Serbia and Kosovo between 2019 and 2021, was a central figure in preserving a friendly relationship with Washington, Belgrade, during Trump's first term.

Throughout the Presidency Joe BidenGrenelli visited Belgrade several times. In 2023, Grenelli received the order of the Serbian flag, and Vucic praised her as “true witness to events in Kosovo and elsewhere in the region”.

Despite Grenelli's role in Trump's second administration, Kosovo is likely to be exasperating for “Trump 2.0x1>, and for good reason. The United States has known Kosovo's independence since 2008, and today most UN member states, including the vast majority of European countries, also recognise it. But Serbia, Russia, China and a long list of mostly non-Western states recognise Kosovo as part of Serbia.

Because of Russia and China's positions at the UN Security Council, it is known that the UN will not formally recognise Kosovo's independence. Trump has earlier threatened to withdraw US military forces from the Kosovo Force (KFOR), a NATO-led peacekeeping team, alarmed officials in Pristina.

However, even if Trump did not take this threat seriously, it would not necessarily testify to a existential crisis for Kosovo. KFOR should be able to continue its operations even in the event of a US withdrawal, mainly because Pristina has prepared for this possible scenario by strengthening its relations with Turkey in recent years.

After violence erupted between KFOR and Serbia in May 2023, Ankara established a commando battalion in Kosovo. Turks have also sold Pristina “Bayraktare” fears. At the end of 2024, the Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation (a Turkish state defence company) and Kosovo signed an agreement to build an ammunition production plant in Kosovo.

At the end of 2023, Dodik said Trump's victory in 2024 presidential elections would create one Best geopolitical “for Republika Srpska” and that under such circumstances he would declare the independence of the Serbian entity.

After Trump won, Dodik claimed it was one “tive” Even for Republika Srpska, and put on a hat. MAGA outside his presidential palace. Banja Luka maintains good relations with Moscow, which exploits the tense situation in Bosnia to Russia's advantage, viewing Republika Srpska as one “Balkan Transnistria” Reference to Russia's land fragment dominated by Moldova.

Likewise, a pro-Russian enclave within Bosnia makes NATO and the European Union nervous about instability in the Western Balkans -- a tactic that the Kremlin can always use to take attention away from Ukraine and that creates an issue that prevents Bosnia from joining NATO.

At the same time, Western sanctions on Dodik have pushed Republika Srpska closer to China. In 2016, Republika Srpska and China entered into a co-operation agreement that formalized ties. China has invested in construction and thermal projects throughout the Bosnian Serb enclave over the years.

Washington and London have sanctioned Dodik for corruption and his actions that threaten Bosnia's fragile balance. United States Under President Barack Obama, sanctioned for the first time the Bosnian Serb friendly Kremlin leader in January 2017 for opposing orders from the Constitutional Court of Bosnia. Dodik hopes Trump will ease US pressure on him by granting him freedom to undermine the Dayton Agreement.

Power mediators in Banja Luka are optimistic that Washington can secede from most EU and NATO members who see the preservation of the Dayton Agreement as the key to stability and security in Southeast Europe and instead line up with Hungary in the face of the Western Balkans.

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who has close relations with Vucic, Dodik and Russian president Vladimir Putin, has made Hungary the most vocal nation of the EU when it comes to ending Western pressure on Dodik.

Orban, Vucic and Dodik have created a triangular brotherhood, and some bet Trump will become the fourth figure with them.

If Bosnia Serb strong man manages to make Washington lift sanctions, he “will surely be encouraged to continue with his” agendaHe says, Vladimir Trapara, a senior researcher at the Belgrade-based Institute of International Policy and Economy.

Although Dodik may speak of separatism to gather his voters in Republika Srpska, he may never make such a bold move in view of various practical considerations, including the dangers of a new war in the Balkans.

Trapar makes a difference between Dodik's agenda led by populism and “Real political goals”. The Bosnian Serb leader tries to play the separatist card to win the support of Serbian nationalists, when it has good political effects, only to focus more on administrative issues when emotions are less charged.

Known for his transactional approach to foreign policy, Trump will likely seek major diplomatic and business agreements in the Western Balkans.

The Trump family business relations in Serbia include Affinity Partners (denying his groom's investments Jared Kouchner) providing a 99-year-old permit to build a luxury hotel in Belgrade, in a country that was bombed by NATO in 1999 and investing approximately $1 billion in luxury hotels and villas on Albania's coast.

Such business interests may influence the administration's approach to this region, potentially complicating the picture with interests in Albania that clash with an increasingly pro-Belgrade policy. After all, Trump is known for making foreign policy decisions based on the highest bid and through personal connections, rather than traditional institutions.

As far as Bosnia's territorial integrity is concerned, authorities in Banja Luka seem to believe the Trump administration could depreciate the implementation mechanisms of the Dayton Agreement.

The overall lack of Trump's interest in so-called transatlantic values, combined with its good relations with Orban and Vucic, could push power brokers in Republika Srpska to have high hopes for Trump 2.0.

“Texa Belgrade may not openly pursue territorial ambitions, the transactional approach of Trump to foreign policy may provide opportunities to postpone nationalist goals delicately”He says, Petar Milutinovic, a research associate from the Belgrade-based Institute of European Studies. “Dodik, in particular, can exploit the perceived US's failure to intensify calls for the independence of Republika Srpska”.

But things can go differently and assumptions about the approach of Trump's foreign transaction policy, which is essentially positive for Serbia, are highly simplified.

Albania and Kosovo spend money on lobbying efforts with the United States to advance their interests, which include the goal of convincing Washington to contribute to Kosovo's independence, strengthening the US Allied relationship Albania and maintaining pressure on Belgrade.

Could also have a role for Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, given Ankara's close relations with Sarajevo, Tirana and Pristina.

Good relations between Erdogan and Trump, if used wisely, [have] The potential to improve US relations with Bosniaks and Albanians, which [currently] is pretty dysfunctional”, explained Jahja MuhasilovicA geopolitical analyst and associate professor at Sarajevo International University.

If Trump succeeds as promised to freeze the Russian-Ukrainian war, with some of the Ukrainian land left under Russian control, the echo would feel throughout Europe.

Such a diplomatic agreement for Ukraine could make the West appear weak, especially if accompanied by the removal of certain sanctions against Russia. Serbian pro-Russian nationalists can interpret such a scenario as “a victory for Moscow's strategy, strengthening their anti-Western rhetoric and calls for regional reshuffle, such as secession aspirations in Republika Srpska or minim of Kosovo sovereignty”, Milutinovic said.

Dejan Sainovic, a Bosnian columnist and editor for “Nezavisne Novine”, explains how Belgrade is more comfortable when there is a balance of influence in the region, with NATO members and Russia making concessions to Serbia.

When each side gains the most strength, the balance breaks down and this usually means a kind of instability in the Balkans”, He says.

Trump's unpredictability suggests Dodik and other Serbs' optimism may be wrong. At the same time, the continued Russian influence in Southeast Europe will limit Belgrade and Banja Luka's ability to approach Washington.

With Trump's return to the White House, Serbian nationalists must think carefully about what they want. /Foreign Police/ Lapsy.al