EU ahead of major challenges: The fate of Europe and the Balkans

The European Union will face a triple challenge that will determine Europe's future. The elections in the European Parliament, geopolitical changes and economic dynamics will determine the future of European policy, the position of the Western Balkans and its urgent EU integration. This text is the speech given by the author, in the 21st edition of the Vienna Congress.

Crisiss in the European Union and around Europe, across the ancient continent, will depend on some domestic political circumstances and external security threats, on global geopolitical tensions, but also on some economic factors that are not so hopeful during 2024! Of all of this, the EU's own approach and policy will depend on the EU itself, but on its member states, the Western Balkans and Kosovo. The way the EU will approach certain issues that will freeze here will depend on whether it will be passive observers as it often seems to us outside the EU, or an important decision-making power for its own destiny and the fate of others. Europe will face an identifying challenge that will define its future.

The first issue involving the upcoming European political landscape will depend on how Europeans will vote in 2024. The European Parliament elections are held between June 6th and 9th 2024 what results it will have and who will build future European institutions is very important. Why will Europeans vote as they will vote, and what role does perception of fear and uncertainty about the future play? Will emotions be crucial to the personal decision of European citizens to vote for European Parliament? A crisis of confidence in European politics could affect national elections in most member states. Polls also show that far-right parties will have significant benefits in the European Parliament elections in June 2024. This will likely affect the EU's policy stance on issues such as migration, climate change, EU enlargement and the renewed European war, such as Ukraine, which would have long-term consequences for the future of the EU.

The second issue I want to mention is that Europe will see nine parliamentary elections this year. It seems that six countries, as polls show, will likely result in a visible change in government or government management and/or government policies. The main concern is that in many member states political fragmentation is expected to remain a key trend in Europe, next year and beyond. Governments thus find it increasingly difficult to lead the parliamentary majority in the national congregations. If some member states are governed by coalitions, therefore, they will have to rely on large multiparty agreements. When government decision-making remains limited by the challenges of the minority government, it will make major decisions difficult. But also political instability, non-stability and internal polarisation will be trend and the European rate. When I spoke with European friends these days, they were convinced that increasing discontent with the political establishment would increase the likelihood that the main and traditional European parties would unite some of the most radical policies supported by extreme right and extreme left in their policy platforms. The far-right parties are also likely to have electoral gains and expect them to enter the government after the elections, in some countries, potentially like the largest parties, with the best chance of forming and leading future governments. The most important elections in Europe in 2024 will depend on the U.S. and Great Britain elections, which will have the impact in two different directions and on opposing political effects.

The third issue concerns the European and global economy, which will grow slightly faster than expected, as indicators show, but the process of economic recovery will likely continue in 2024. However, there are also some uncertainty factors that have been inherited from past years but are the main European economic reality. Especially should high interest rates be mentioned here, the threat of rising energy prices, increased public debt in some EU member states, and geopolitical tensions in trade in Europe and the world. All these factors will affect the European economy in 2024. In some countries inflationary pressure remains high. High energy prices, in combination with high interest rates, are clouding economic development both in terms of production and employment. High interest rates will remain at an above average for the predictable future throughout the EU. Some southern European countries in the EU have levels above the debt average, so government debt in relation to GDP, which will be serious concern this year. Whether traditional or far-right political parties will focus on economic isolation and they will dominate the upcoming European elections, such as the European Parliament elections and member states in the US, this would have a negative impact on global trade with negative consequences for some national economies, dependent on exports.

The other issue remains and geopolitical competition and geopolitical tensions with consequences to liberal international order and consequences for European and global economic development, with negative impact on increasing employment. The geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically with Russian aggression in Ukraine and recently, with the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip. The rivalry that China is trying to do in relation to the US has also continued to become a key factor in the way we see the world. Despite all geopolitical uncertainty, it is geoeconomics that governs the transatlantic relationship. Here Americans and Europeans must be even more strategic in co-operation, but we can likely see in this geography a commercial crisis depending on who wins the White House elections and what foreign policy the United States will now implement to Europe. More and more countries are now using their economic power to increase their geopolitical influence.

Every day and more of the difficult issues of war and peace are threatening the liberal world order, where geopolitical uncertainties have become unknown to us. When we talk about political and geopolitical uncertainties that pose an additional economic risk, this is becoming every day more likely, since any escalation of existing conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict at the Gaza Strip can lead to problems in the supply and increasing supply prices.

I'm going back to political affairs. The future European and Western political leadership to emerge from the elections will depend on how much it will impact the global economy, but also on the liberal world order. Attempts by Western opponents to create and promote rival economic blocks lead us to a world not only less pro-operative, but also less secure in terms of economic and national security.

The EU and the US may be in the best position to demonstrate how co-operation can help us sail into a divided world. Only if the West could gradually defeat its autocrats and non-liberal opponents, and if that is what Western politicians will understand, then it can also find unity through co-operation between sovereign states, because it is in everyone's interest to balance national interests. If 80 years ago the U.S. and the EU lived this dream, today when we are again tested by global tensions. To have a chance to solve these challenges, states must follow the course that they followed at the end of World War II.

A clash of geoeconomics with the geopoliticals that have come to determine and question global co-operation is evident in the Western Balkans. The region has become a microcosm of global geopolitical tensions. But our fate in the Western Balkans will depend on American and European strategic attention and clarity.

Ukraine's brutal aggression from Russia has served as a wake-up call for the EU, and two years ago I was sure a new and revived EU will be born geopolitically. Despite support for Ukraine, this revival and the rebirth of Europe did not happen, which is why we now see strategic dilemmas. If in the Balkans we thought the war in Ukraine increased the urgency of discussing EU enlargement, this seems like naive expectations in the region because it is not happening. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the need to accelerate the Western Balkans' EU accession process and revive it for all countries in the region that are not yet in the EU. However, nothing important in the membership process has happened even as far as Kosovo, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, northern Macedonia and Serbia.

Public statements by EU institutions leaders for an upcoming enlargement deadline by 2030 make us hope that this will mobilise energy both in the EU and in candidate states in the region. The question now is how to get candidate countries ready to join the European bloc? What would help the Western Balkans more is an EU-led economic growth plan, where it refers to a small market of six countries with less than eighteen million integrated consumers with the European market. To narrow the development gap between the Balkans and the EU, EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen proposed an economic growth plan with four pillars for the Western Balkans last year. It will now be seen after the EU elections that these goals will include bringing the region closer to the common EU market, deepening regional economic integration, accelerating fundamental reforms, and increasing pre-membership funds, and how many of these will be taken as priorities. With the Western Balkans representing the inner courtyard in the EU and which is a kind of large isolated island within Europe, now is the time for attention focused on advancing this plan's goals and accelerating the region's EU accession by concrete dates, which before elections are held and after them needs a new speed. This new speed would take shape for Kosovo if it received candidate status during this year's mandate of this Commission, which the EU has no reason to postpone.

If the EU fails to make a decision regarding Kosovo's application for candidate status, what strategic direction and clarity can the EU expect to show? The inability to pass this simple and symbolic act raises dilemmas about the EU's strategic direction towards Europe itself.

(This speech was given in the 21st edition of the Vienna Congress by the author, who is also a member of the Vienna Congress Consultative Board. )