The establishment of Association, the dynamic process in 2024

Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has two functional problems, manifested as two blocking forces of the process. Serbia claims it will not recognise Kosovo, so it will not implement Article 4 of the agreement, and will not allow the opening of the Kosovo diplomatic mission in Belgrade. On the other hand, Kosovo says it will establish the Association -- a obligation that dates back to the Basic Agreement -- only if Serbia signs the Basic Agreement and the application annex.

At first glance it seems like a hopeless situation and it gives the impression that in terms of dialogue, 2024 will be like 2023. So, a situation where the EU, as an mediator, would be held hostage by the parties' unconstructive behaviour. This conspiracy is wrong.

As the parties proceed with the same positions and requirements, what will change in 2024 is the approach and position of the European Union in front of the parties. This change is crucial not only for 2024 but for the next decade despite changes that could bring about this year's European and American elections.

In the coming days and weeks, the European Commission and the Council of EU Ministers will also formally decide that implementation of the Basic Agreement and the annex of implementation will be formal conditions that must be met in the EU integration process, namely an additional condition and obligation at the top of the conditions and obligations Serbia and Kosovo already have.

This decision by the European Commission and the Council of Ministers will completely change the political context. After this act of formalism, the establishment of association will no longer only be Kosovo's contractual obligation to the other side, but it will be Kosovo's exclusive obligation to the European Union. Meanwhile, Kosovo's defacto recognition will no longer only be Serbia's contractual obligation to the other side, but it will also be Serbia's special obligation to the European Union.

Moreover, these new obligations of the parties to the EU will be restored to the top of the existing obligations, so they will become the crucial element of the further integration path. One thing that will directly and immediately impact Serbia and Kosovo's access to EU funds.

In particular, as far as the process of establishing association is concerned, in this new political context created after formalising the obligation of implementing the agreement, The EU will formalise its draft status proposal. So this draft statute will be published on the official site of the European Union, as a European proposal for the statute of Association of Serb-based municipalities.

It must be stressed that this step will be crucial in the process of furthering. It should also be stressed that it is not the exact interpretation that the draft status will be taken or left. The situation has a deeper shade.

The draft status officialship as a European proposal implies that accepting this proposal from the Kosovo government is also formal obligation on the path to integration. So there is no “lere option”. If Kosovo does not want to move further into the establishment of association then, without taking the Kosovo statute indirectly giving up the road to the EU. In practical terms, this means that Kosovo will be put under sanctions and with a completely paralyzed communication and relationship with the EU.

Something similar, but in shades and other details, applies to Serbia if it continues with the current course.

As a conclusion, in 2024, the scope of Kosovo and Serbia for political maneuvering will be markedly narrowed. The officialisation of the Basic Agreement's implementation as an integral, formal and binding condition on the path of integration stands higher than signing as a formal contractual act. So, despite not signing the agreement from Serbia, the establishment of association will be a formal obligation of Kosovo to the EU. Likewise, despite popular statements in Belgrade, elements of Kosovo's defacto recognition will be Serbia's formal obligation to the EU. And these obligations will remain despite changes that can bring European and American elections this year.