Will we ever be able to predict earthquakes?

Tragedy Spreaded Between Buildingsrmother in Southeast Turkey, SyrianNorth, highlights how many unexpected, severe earthquakes can strike us. AndSThe scientists are. TargetW find ways to detect early warning signs to those who are most unpredictable of natural disasters.

They strike suddenly and without warning. The two devastating earthquakes that hit Southeast Turkey and northern Syria have claimed thousands of lives and left many others injured or homeless. Happened in the early hours of February 6th, most of the victims were asleep when the first 7.8-degree quake went down. buildings Over their bodies.

A few hours later, he was followed by a second major earthquake of 7.5 magnitudes. The Relative Size of Both Shatters, It meant that the intensity of the quakes was too great.

And as the area continues to tremble at the aftermath, experts at the Geological Service of the United States have warned that those who survive and rescue workers now flocking to the region to help, face significant risks from landslides and liquefiation. nWnEarth as a result of impacts.

But while the world is engaged in sending aid to affected communities on both sides of the border between Turkey and Syria, some are wondering why we could not predict this event. The geology breach system in the East Anadol where earthquakes occurred is part of a “triple tetonic combination” where shtua mi 1WDropped)othern three tablets: the tablet of Anandol, Arabia, and Africa.

Since 1970, only 3 earthquakes with a magnitude 6 or more had hit the region, and many geologists believed it was the late “ ” in the experience of another major earthquake. Yes Why can't you?m so you can predictm exactly. ask at runtimeW? In fact, the science of earthquake prediction is very difficult.

While there are often small signals that can be discovered in seismic data after an event has happened, knowing what to look for, and using it to make preliminary predictions is much more challenging. When we simulate earthquakes in the lab, we see all these little signs happening. First, there are cracks and some what?France”- says Chris Marone, professor of geoscienties at Rome's La Sapienza University in Italy and at the U.S. State University of Pennsylvania.

But there's a lot of uncertainty in nature, because we often don't have money)Strike or The sign that there will be a big earthquake”- he adds. Geologists have tried to use modern scientific methods to predict earthquakes since at least 1960s, but with little success.

The reason Marone says it's mostly about complexityn i Image systemdeAnd tectonics across the globe. And a lot of seismic noise. The earth thunders continually in its interior, and of the nation%d With anthropogenic noise of traffic, construction jobs, and daily life, it makes it difficult to detect clear signals.

According to the U.S. Geological Service, three things are needed for a truly useful earthquake prediction: locationsChoose a working directoryWhen will it happen?, And how violent the earthquake will be! So far no one can do this with some kind of security.

Instead, geologists produce what are their best assumptions at <x0) the risk maps”, where they calculated the probability of an earthquake within a few years. While these maps can help to a degree in planning that involves improvement of construction standards in the most endangered areas, they do not provide the proper level of forecast to give early warnings to the public to give to him opportunity to evacuate or take refuge in safer placesChoose a working directory.

“In Turkey and Syria, there were many factors indicating that the buildings were in such a state that they were ready to collapse. In many parts of the Western world, there have been seismic reinforcements that were implemented in the 1970s-1980s. But building construction and reconstruction costs a lot of”- he adds.

So scientists have looked for ways)makes earthquake predictions more accurate. In addition to seismic signals, researchers have sought data in a variety of countries, from animal behavior to electric waves in the upper Earth atmosphere.

In recent times, there is much hope in abilities i Artificial intelligence to detect the kind of subtle signals that save us humans. Machine algorithms can analyze large quantities of data from past earthquakes to look for models that can be used to predict future events.

Marone and his colleagues have developed algorithms that are thought to be able to detect failures in the last five years what?The gold's simulated in the lab. Using granite blocks how bigsia i a fist, they can recreate stress and friction that can what?Fire in one what?Right, increasing the pressure until the last one slips, creating what they call a <x0-thermeter lab”.

Yet, Marone admits that there is still little p.WProgress in this regard. BreakWSo scientists in China have studiediWith waves on particles laden with electricity in the Earth's ionosphere in the days before earthquakes, caused by magnetic changes in areas of tectonic fault.

A group led by Jing Liu at the Earthquake Forecast Institute in Beijing claimed to find out 10 daysW before Changes in atmospheric electrons on the quake episode that hit California in the United States in early April 2010.

Another group in Israel recently claimed to be able to use Artificial Intelligence to predict major earthquakes 48 hours agoChoose a working directory, with an accuracy of 83 percent by examining the content of electrons in the ionosphere over the past 20 years.

In 2018, China launched the Sizmo-Electronic satellite of China (CSES) to monitor electrical anomalies in the Earth's ionosphere. Last year, Central scientistsChina's Beijing headquarters Earthquake Network claimed to have found a decline in the density of electrons in the ionosphere until 15 days before earthquakes that struck KinWn in May 2021 and January 2022.

A power transfer could take place between the lithosphere and the top two layers, which is the atmosphere and the nonosphere”- says Mei Li, one of the researchers working at the China Earthquake Network Center. But she says the mechanism of how this happens is still controversial. However, it warns that even with satellite data, their findings are still far from being able to predict an impending earthquake. Lee also points to another problem: major trauma can cause changes in the ionosphere too far away From their epidera, which makes it difficult to confirm their exact location.

Reports of frightened animals leaving in panic before earthquakes date qW Thousands of years ago, the use of such observations in a meaningful way is difficult. Because animal behavior does not always permit accurate prediction.

There are reports of an earthquake predicted in China decades ago with the help of unusual animal behavior, but Choose a working directoryhas not been repeated mW. Other scholars are relying on different signals. In Japan, some experts claim they are able to use changes in water vapor over earthquake areas to make predictions. Tests suggest that these predictions have 70 percent accuracy, although they may say only that an earthquake can occur at one point lengthW month (s)i iW Next. Others are Trying to use small ripples in Earth's gravity that could occur before an earthquake. Despite all these claims, however, no one has been able to predict successfully where and when an earthquake will occur before it really happens.

Taken with cuts from “BBC” World.al