Analysis on “Moscow's Interests From Gaza to Banjska

Photo illustration

By Jamie Dentmer and Christian Oliver for Yeah. LITICO

Hamas' brutal attack on Israel took place on Vladimir Putin's birthday. Such a catastrophic crackdown on security in the Middle East was probably a welcome surprise for a Russian president, whose strategic priority is to draw Western support and attention from Ukraine. A large fire in Israel threatens to do just that.

The big question is how much credit should be given to the Kremlin for the perfect storm of crises (in Israel, Kosovo, Caucasus and Africa) that is growing in America and Europe. For many people, it is interesting to see Putin as an organiser or <x0 doll-master” that promotes more conflicts than the West can afford.

Actually, Putin didn't start all these crises, but now he's happy to pour fire fuel and play them to his advantage. He's enjoying chaos. Kremlin propagandists are already spreading a lull that a Middle East war is a victory for Russia and money for Ukraine will be exhausted.

This was probably the best birthday present for Putin. The attack on Israel will raise attention given the natural focus of the US on Israel” A EU diplomat said. We hope this will not have a dramatic effect on supporting Ukraine, but of course, much will depend on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East as well. If we really want to be a geopolitical European Union, we should be able to face numerous crises at the same time. ”

In Washington it has been concluded that Hamas' attacks on Israel will reduce the focus of the US in Ukraine. This, even after the consequences of last week's collapse by Speaker Kevin McCarthi from a group of hard-line Republicans, part of the same conservative group that have sought to cut back aid to Ukraine. The race to succeed McCorthy is unfolding by making it more difficult for the Biden administration to get Congress' approval of any additional aid that Israel might wish to provide.

Feeling the threat that the West could lose its focus on Kiev, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is stressing that Hamas' supporters, Iran and Russia are close allies and therefore considering the fight against Russia as war against Islamic militants. Israel's “Gasers who have been here in Ukraine, in Bucha, now say they saw the same evil when Russia came. Same bad. And the only difference is that there is a terrorist organization that attacked Israel, and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine. ”

The Kremlin's having fun

But how involved are the Russians? Let's start with the Hamas attacks. Russia has long loved “and the Islamic militants and Hamas leader Ismail Haneyeh and other officials have made recent trips to Moscow. Following Saturday's attacks, the Russians immediately opened up their old plans to pull Israel's borders where they were in 1967. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the establishment of a Palestinian state is being hampered by “Destructive policies” The US and you could almost hear the noise of pleasure when former President Dmitry Medvedev considered Hamas' attacks as “an expected” development and turned his anger against the West.

Instead of working actively to solve the Palestinian crisis, these Israeli fools [ US] They have intervened with us and are offering neo-Nazis [in Ukraine] help to a full degree, setting against each other the two people close to” It ironic.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov happily said that funds for Ukraine would now inevitably be reduced. “The process of pumping the Kiev regime with actual, emotional, financial, technological applications will enter a drop trend” ) He said.

Does this suggest that Russia could have a direct hand in these attacks? That seems impossible. Russia is not as important as Iran when it comes to the weapons and financing of Hamas.

Norman Roule, a former senior American intelligence official, argued Moscow's political support for Hamas encouraged the group to take violent action, but said any Russian role beyond that would likely be modest. This strategy allows Russians to claim they support a peace process, but the subsequent violence undermines the region, diverts policymakers' attention from Russian aggression against Ukraine, and attracts US maritime assets from the Black Sea to the eastern Mediterranean” ) He told me about POLITCO.

Flies with Hamas and support for Palestinians also help Putin style himself as an important player in a global reshuffle against the West with China and Iran. Just days ago, he said Russia's goal was to “built a new world”, blaming the West for fighting in Ukraine and said conflict was rising above “must be based on the new world order”.

Iran, Russia's ally and leading military supplier abroad certainly also wants a new world order, but it is questionable how directly Tehran gives specific orders to Hamas. Roule doubts Tehran participated in the operational planning for the attack. But this The bad “understands the way Iran operates and its role and how it uses representatives”, He said. Iran after him “Creates a Frankenstein monster and then releases it to the village”

This approach to fuel global geopoliticality fits Russia very well.

Crisis in the Caucasus

Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus is another hot spot where Putin's critics accuse him of deliberately promoting a crisis that led more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee their ancestors' homeland after a 24-hour military attack from Azerbaijan on September 19th and 20th.
Here again, the view is complex. In some circles, the disaster is seen as a sign of Russian weakness, that Moscow could no longer guarantee the safety of Armenians in the face of an attack by Turkey-backed Azerbaijan.

Russia, on the other hand, is trying to suggest that “deliberately removed support for Karabakh Armenians from the priza” by amassing pressure on The US and the EU for refugee exchange. The message from Moscow is that it is punishing Armenian Prime Minister Nikola Pashinyan, leaving him in the mud for withdrawing from his alliance with Russia and trying to push his country into a more western trajectory.
In this case, Putin most likely played a role. Tested observers find it unimaginable that Azerbaijan sent its troops without the green light from Moscow or saw the Russians calm things with Tehran, a traditional Azerbaijani enemy who has long expressed fear of border changes in the South Caucasus.

Whether case or not, as Azerbaijan's forces progressed, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was in Tehran for talks with senior military and Iranian security officials, including Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard air space chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

It is not thought that Nagorno-Karabakh appeared in their discussions. European Council President Charles Michel also leaves little doubt when he says he thinks the disaster in the Caucasus was Putin's fault, saying Armenians were “betrayed” by the failure of Russian peacekeepers.

Balkan drowning

Four days after Azerbaijan took Nagorno-Karabakh, it was the Balkan turn against a fierce and surprising clash between armed Serbs and police in the village of Banjska, in the municipality of Zvecan in northern Kosovo. Kosovo has accused Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq of ordering the attack, while others see the hand of far-right Serbian ultranationalists who have close ties with Moscow.

Kosovars and Albanians have long argued that Russia is the main force trying to trigger a new war in the Balkans. Only last month, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said Russia was exploiting tensions in Kosovo to justify Its “its neo-peranole dreams”.

Whether Putin is directly involved or not, an explosion in the Balkans would be clear in Russia's interest, adding another major distraction to a tired West that already has difficulty maintaining its coherence and unity.

In 2018, in testimony to a panel in Congress, Henry Kissinger, a former U.S. State secretary, with great recognition of geopolitical machines, dismissed the notion that all “Individuals in different countries” They were only the result of chance.