The war in Ukraine has troubled the Balkans: What the EU, US Should Do

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues in its second month, a major concern has arisen throughout the Western Balkan region. Images coming from Ukraine have revived memories of the horrors the region experienced in the 1990s, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

In view of Russia's strong economic, military, and soft power ties, the current war has raised concerns that Moscow may try to further destabilise the Balkan region, to avoid attention from its catastrophic military campaign in Ukraine.

Often labeled as Europe's lowest <x0halka”, the Balkans can become a new source of unrest on a continent already in chaos. Under this background, Europe and the United States cannot stand back. The war in Ukraine has revived questions on the future of the region's Euro-Atlantic integration.

Although surrounded by EU and NATO member states, the region remains only partially integrated into Euro-Atlantic political and security structures. As countries in the Balkans are urged to take sides and contribute to diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia, Europe and the United States must double their military, political and economic commitment to the region.

Russia's current influence in the Western Balkans remains strong. Russia's economic investment in the region is focused on strategic sectors such as energy, while Moscow has exploited party patrol systems and corruption.

In recent years, Russia has strengthened its military ties with Serbia, selling it weapons, aircraft and air defence systems. But it is the Russian Orthodox faith, and Russia's continued opposition to Kosovo's independence, which lay the foundation for its soft power in the region.

This approach has paved the way for the strong insight into Russian influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro, where important policy segments are very pro-Russian. For leaders like Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia and Milorad Dodik in Bosnia, close ties with Russian leadership are a matter of political survival.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, seen in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia are seen pro-Russian gatherings by extreme right groupings with direct links to Russia. For nationalist factions throughout the region, which view Putin's Russia as a defender of Orthodoxism, Russia's invasion of an Orthodox country like Ukraine is not a very big contradiction.

Separated from the historical context, these groups see Russia as restorative of a territory that rightly belongs to the Russians, as they would like to see Kosovo be translated” under Serbia's control.

Putin himself has often cited Kosovo's example as an excuse for annexing the Crime from Russia and its attacks on Donetsk and Luhansk. Like Ukraine, Russia views the Western Balkans as a buffer zone, where it can preserve a range of influence and harm the West.

In Montenegro, Russian FSB and GRU operatives were among those arrested due to a failed coup attempt in 2016 aimed at obstructing Montenegro's NATO membership. As for Kosovo and Serbia, Russia's support to the latter undermines efforts to normalise relations between the two countries.

This also hinders both integration into the European Union. Meanwhile, Russia's recent threats to veto the renewal of the mandate of the EU peacekeeping force in Bosnia have underscored the fragility of the post-war constitution in this country.

In all these cases, Russia has shown it can easily destabilise the Balkans. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has deepened divisions between pro-Western and pro-Russian voices throughout the region. NATO members Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia quickly lined up with EU sanctions, as did Kosovo aspiring to become part of NATO.

Although supporting UN resolutions condemning Russia's actions, Serbia and Bosnia have refused to join sanctions against Russia, thus becoming Russia's two only European countries that remain outside Russia's <x0).

Fear in Bosnia is widespread, that war in Ukraine can bring instability to the Balkans. The inability to hold a common position in condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine comes due to Dodik's pro-Russian behaviour, the country's Serb member of the tripartite presidency.

Bosnia is in recent months in its most serious post-war crisis, precisely because of Dodik's threats to withdrawing from the Serb majority entity federal institutions. Immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian ambassador to Bosnia prompted these fears, warning that any rapprochement between Bosnia and NATO would bring a reaction to Moscow, saying:“Ukraine's example shows what's expected to happen!

In Kosovo, where citizens' feelings are very pro-Western and anti-Russian, the crisis in Ukraine has raised security concerns. Government leaders have sought a faster path towards NATO membership and a permanent NATO basis.

Although Montenegro quickly joined sanctions against Russia, it has not yet implemented the majority due to domestic political disputes. The country's pro-Serbian government, which fell after a no-confidence motion in February but still remains in a caretaker role, is deeply divided over sanctions.

And this division also reveals the extent of the country's economic exposure: Russia is the largest direct foreign investor in Montenegro, investing heavily in its real estate market and sectors like metallurgy.

But if the negotiations succeed, a new government led by the minority that will be formed by Prime Minister-appointed Dritan Abazovic of the pro-Western Bedhe-Montenegro bloc could dim the pro-Russian voices that are currently in the government.

Western attention is mainly focused on Serbia, where the war in Ukraine poses an additional challenge for the government, as it was trying to play a balanced role between Russia and the West ahead of the April 3rd presidential, parliamentary and local elections.

In terms where the population remembers the costs of Western sanctions well, President Vucic has tried to portray himself as the most capable candidate to protect Serbia's stability. Aware of a strong pro-Russian sentiment in the country, and of an added EU and US audit, Vucic has been convinced of Serbia's neutral role in the crisis.

Serbia voted in favour of condemning Ukraine's Russian invasion of the UN General Assembly, but refused to line up with EU sanctions on Russia. The victory is expected to change this balance, but it is not guaranteed that Vucic will lean from the West, especially now that the government will start negotiations on the new ruling coalition.

In this context, Europe and the United States must double their efforts to avoid further destabilisation in the Balkans. Depending on the Western response, two very different futures await the region -- either a growing instability, which Russia can exploit, or a long-term integration within the European community.

After years of frustration, the brutal fight in Ukraine is forcing all actors to choose a clear political course, as well as to make bold decisions. The coming months will offer the opportunity to discuss the future of the region, starting with a European summit dedicated to the Western Balkans in June, organised by France, as the rotating chairman of the EU presidency.

Politically, it is imperative that Europe respond to calls across the region to accelerate EU integration in the context of the war in Ukraine. A revived membership process would promote progress in much needed governance and rule of law reforms in these countries.

Meanwhile, the European Union and NATO must increase their support to help the Western Balkan countries strengthen rule of law and reject Russia's malicious influence. On the other hand, regional leaders must make a balance of the future that wants to build for their countries.

“Center for Strategic and International Studies” / Taken by world cuts.al