NATO must speak less and do more, otherwise Ukraine will break, slightly

Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin's Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine. Lawyers may say otherwise, but he may be right. So will the U.S. intervene to stop it? Sadly, no. Kiev needs many fighter planes, and for example, the main battle tanks M1 Abrams to stop the atrocities. Will he take them? No, again. What Ukraine benefits greatly is policy gestures. If and when all her people have died or been eradicated, Biden could say: “I told you” This will not be a great comfort.

The gap between what Western leaders and what Ukraine really wants to survive becomes potentially fatal to the site of a major Russian offensive is approaching east. Russia's loss around Kiev was epic. So is the sinking of Russia's largest battleship. But such victories can create a deceptive impression of the overall course of war.

Russian generals also, if they stay alive, learn from their mistakes. Ukraine's darkest hour has just begun.

Western democracies grouped around NATO has done much to help, but not enough. The problem starts with the US, the leader of the alliance, and it's a known problem. Polls suggest most Americans support Ukraine, but do not want American forces to be directly involved. It's also Beden's personal instinct. A war in Europe seems very different when viewed by Paris, Texas, rather than from Paris, France. He lacks certain existential advantage.

NATO's direct, limited military intervention on the ground to create safe havens in western Ukraine, for example, or to target artillery in theatre, sea forces and rockets that bombard civilians, is fully feasible. The simple threat could give Russia a pause. Beden will not listen to him, however. His fear that it would automatically escalate into a comprehensive war NATO-Russia is almost certainly groundless. Putin knows he'd lose such a fight. But who dares test him?

This leaves two options: weapons and sanctions. But even here the West still trembles. When Voldymyr Zelenskiy, president of Ukraine, appeals, as he does every day, for an immediate embargo on Russian exports of oil, gas and coal, he still faces a mixture of Western care, indecision and self-interest.

The EU, for example, is doing endless shopping for a possible oil ban. Without such measures, however, the likelihood of Ukraine's life will be greatly reduced over time.

The US, like Britain, is expanding the range and quality of the weapons “defender”. Biden's latest 800 million-dollar package includes helicopters, armoured personnel carriers, radars and fears. The Pentagon has asked eight major contractors to protect the US Army to help find ways to arm Ukraine faster and better. This, by chance, represents a de-Western facto escalation, which Putin has now officially rejected.

Perhaps the Russian use of chemical or biological weapons will be the step behind a US response that changes war. Most Americans say they will support military action if such illegal weapons are used or a NATO ally is attacked. The White House, which says it is preparing retaliatory options “proctoral”, seems to be lagging behind public opinion.

All Western governments will eventually be blamed if Ukraine falls or splits east, such as Germany in 1945. Britain's Boris Johnson has amassed much praise as Zelenski's best self-appointed new friend. However, while Great Britain has offered serious effective weapons against tanks, it faithfully follows Washington's line to aircraft, tanks and ground troops.

Johnson, naming him the British lion in Kiev last weekend, claimed that “Putin's monstrous goals are stumbling ... We are gathering a global alliance to end this tragedy”. This is certainly false. Half the world, including China and India, is not supportive. And the end isn't almost obvious what an honest man would admit. Every day more crimes are committed. And the disgusting Putin is stubborn for his fight “physic”.

Germany, Europe's alleged leader, is another sad occasion. Chancellor Olaf Scholz says those who committed atrocities in the town of Bucha “must take responsibility”. But that day of reckoning remains a distant dream as long as Scholz continues to reject national energy sanctions and throughout the EU and debate weapons supplies. “I don't understand how anyone in Germany can sleep at night,” said Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine's ambassador to Berlin. “What should Germany act?”

The crisis has shed unpleasant light on the lucrative ties between the German big business and Putin's Kremlin cleptocracy. Bilateral trade reached 60 billion euros (50 billion pounds) last year. Now the ruling coalition is divided on how far Zeitenwende's term for the historic pond Germany faces. While promising a 100 billion-euro increase in defence expenditures to protect the Germans, Scholz is delaying sending several heavy weapons to protect Ukrainians.

The smaller the European nation, the greater its contribution, or so it seems often. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have all grown up courageously, as have Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland. They're afraid they might be next. Now anxious Finland and Sweden are aiming to join NATO. After they did so without her help throughout the first cold war, they are in good time for the second.

Ukrainian forces will no doubt fight bravely in the next battle for birth. But according to some estimates they will be more than five to one. Victims will inevitably be high, while perhaps the best outcome they can hope for is a nuisance. And yet, as this horror unfolds, US-led NATO, the most powerful military alliance in the world, will sit in its hands, apparently prepared, if necessary, to see Ukraine torn up slightly by a bit of horrible.

Without added support, Zelenskiy predicts an endless <x0vic blood “”. Western leaders need to speak less and do more and if all else fails, be willing to intervene militarily.

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