12 Why Russia Will Lose This War

I'm writing this from Skopje, Northern Macedonia, where I've been last week giving one of our development leadership Academy courses. The volume does not differ here in terms of available information concerning the war in Ukraine, except that I am in an adjacent time zone and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. Many of the latter are due to Serbia.

These are some of my predictions:

Russia is heading towards a complete defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was inadequate, given a false assumption that Ukrainians were favourable for Russia and that their army would collapse shortly after an invasion. Russian soldiers were apparently wearing uniforms for their victory parade in Kiev, not ammunition and additional rations. Putin at this point has committed most of his army to this operation. There are no large reserves of forces he can call to add to the battle. Russian troops are trapped outside Ukraine's various cities, where they face major supply problems and continued Ukrainian attacks.

The decline of their position may be sudden and catastrophic, rather than slow to happen through a war of destruction. The army on the ground will reach a point where it can neither supply nor retreat, for morality will decline. That's at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better south, but these positions will be hard to guard if the north collapses.

- There are no diplomatic solutions to the possible war before that happens. There is no imagined compromise that would be acceptable both to Russia and Ukraine, given the losses they have received at this point.

The UN Security Council has once again proved useless. The only useful thing was the general Assembly vote, which helps identify the bad or disadvantaged actors of the world.

The Beden administration's decisions not to announce an area that prohibits flying or to help transfer Polish MiGs were both good; they held their heads high in a very emotional time. It is far better for Ukrainians to beat the Russians themselves, deprived Moscow of justification that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all visible escalation opportunities. Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukraine's capabilities. Much more important is the continued supply of Yavelins, Stingers, TB2, medical supplies, communication equipment and exchange. I suppose Ukrainian forces are already run by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

- The cost Ukraine pays is certainly great. But the biggest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, for which neither MiG nor restricted flying zones can do much. The only thing that will stop the massacre is the defeat of the Russian army on earth.

Matthew will not survive the loss of his army. He receives support because he is perceived to be a strong man; what will he offer after demonstrating his inability and removing his austerity power?

The invasion has already caused great harm to the population worldwide, who before the attack expressed uniform sympathy for Putin. These include Matteo Salvin, Jair Bolsonaro, Eric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Victor Orban, and of course Donald Trump. War policy has exposed their authoritarian tendencies.

- Fighting to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built high-tech military forces in the last decade, but they have no combat experience. The sad performance of the Russian Air Force is likely to be repeated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force, which likewise has no experience in managing complex air operations. We can hope that Chinese leaders will not deceive themselves for their abilities, as the Russians did when thinking of a future move against Taiwan.

-We hope Taiwan itself will wake up about the need to prepare to fight as Ukrainians have.

- The Turkish hands will become the best-selling means for the army.

-A Russian defeat will enable a new “birth of freedom” and lead us out of our fear of the state of democracy collapse. The spirit of 1989, thanks to a handful of valiant ones from Ukraine.