This war will change Europe's face

It says: Timothy Garton Ash

The third world war has not begun. But the situation is normally more serious than Hungary's Soviet conquests in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968”. That's how the current Italian war and political analyst Timothy Garton Ash commented on the current war at “The Guardian”. As one of the weightiest intellectuals on the continent, Laps.al has brought in Albanian this praise he sees today's events from a historical perspective.

Will we ever learn from our mistakes? Nobody wondered about the gunpowder barrel, the Balkan of old, but then it turned out that an assassination in Sarajevo sparked the first world war. No one was alarmed by Adolf Hitler's threats to Czechoslovakia, ignoring him as an argument in a distant country, and what followed was World War II. No one was equally interested in either Poland's conquest in 1945 by Joseph Stalin, and suddenly the world found itself involved in a Cold War.

The opportunity to show how much we have learned from past mistakes is repeated and repeated. In 2014, the Russian president invaded Crimea. A little bit was told about this event. And yet, on February 24th, 2022, the world was exposed to brutal reality, unable to defend itself, except with useless strokes of hope.

Such moments highlight courage, determination, and wisdom as well. Perhaps a more careful selection of words is needed. The third world war has not begun. But the situation is normally more serious than Hungary's Soviet conquests in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. The five wars fought in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s were really terrible, but the international dangers stemming from them were not of this magnitude. There were courageous warriors in Budapest who wanted to defend the country in 1956, but the situation in Ukraine is quite different. Ukraine is an independent, sovereign state with a large army and a people declared determined to resist. If they do not resist Russian aggression, they will be conquered. If they resist, this may be Europe's greatest war since 1945.

In front of Ukrainians lies the overwhelming force of one of the world's strongest military powers, with well - trained and well - equipped troops, as well as about 6,000 nuclear weapons. Russia is the largest state in the world to challenge international laws. The country is commanded by a president who, judged by his hysterical statements and actions this week, has turned away from the logical course, as all dictators do sooner or later. More specifically: when he gave his statement of the start of the war Thursday morning, Putin threatened anyone “trying to prevent” with “Never-ex3 consequences in history. So he threatened nuclear war.

But there will be a time to reflect on all our past mistakes. If, beginning in 2014, we had taken seriously the aid to protect Ukraine, reduced European energy dependence on Russia, cleaned up the Russian dirty money sewage lakes that flooded London, and imposed more sanctions on Putin's regime. We would thus have secured ourselves with a better position. But now we have to start acting from where we are.

Under the mist of a fresh war, there are four things that Europe and the rest of the West have to do. First, we must ensure the protection of every centimeter of NATO territory, especially on the eastern borders with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, preserving from all possible forms of attack, including cyber or hybrid ones. For 70 years, the security of Western European countries has depended on the reliability of the promise “for all and all for a” of Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Whether you like it or not, London's multi-year-old security is already inextricably combined with that of the Estonia town of Narva; Berlin or Białystok in Poland; with Rome and Cluj in Romania; and so on.

Second, we must offer all possible support to Ukrainians by being careful not to cross the threshold that would bring a direct war between the West and Russia. Ukrainians who choose to stay and resist will struggle with military and civil means to protect their country's freedom, having every moral and legal right to do so, as we would for our countries. Inevitably, our limited response will bring disappointment and grief. E - mails from Ukrainian friends point to the location of a Western - flying area, denying Russian aircraft the movement in Ukrainian airspace. But NATO did not. Like the Czechs in 1938, like the Polish in 1945, like Hungarians in 1956, Ukrainians will say: “Ju, our European countrymen, you have abandoned us”.

There are still measures we can take. We can continue to supply weapons, information and other equipment -- those who face legitimacy with the Russian armed force. Just as important in the medium-term, it is to help Ukrainians use the proven civil resistance techniques against a Russian invasion and every attempt to impose a puppet government. We also have to be ready to help the many Ukrainians who are going west.

Third, the sanctions we will impose on Russia must go beyond what is planned so far. In addition to sweeping economic measures, Russian citizens bound in one way or another with Putin's regime should be expelled. The Russian president with his $600 billion currency reserves, along with his hand grasping the gas faucet that must go to Europe, is prepared, so sanctions will take time to leave consequences and feel their full effect.

In the end, the Russians themselves will have to turn around and object, saying: “enough. You shouldn't do all this on our behalf.” Many, including Nobelist Dmitry Muratov, have expressed the horrors they feel toward war. Similarly, Ukrainian journalist Natalia Gumanyuk has written touching words about a Russian journalist crying over the phone with her as Russian tanks entered Ukraine. Laztaria will grow when the bodies of Russian young people become piles and war begins to have significant impact on Russia's economy and reputation. The Russians themselves will be Vladimir Putin's first and last victims.

The last, the most vital issue, relates to the preparation for a long fight. It will take years, perhaps decades, to leave behind all the consequences of February 24th. In the short term, Ukraine's prospects are bleak. At this point, I recall the title of a book dedicated to the 1956 Hungarian revolution: “The winner of a failure”. Almost everyone in the West is familiar with the fact that Ukraine is a European country, attacked and torn apart by a dictator. Kiev today is a city full of journalists coming from all over the world. This experience will permanently shape their views on Ukraine. We had forgotten, in the years of our illusions of the Cold War, that this is how nations left their mark on Europe's mental map: blood, sweat and tears.

Taken from Timothy Garton Ash: The Guardian/ D'oh!