If the West is wavering, Balkans will again sink into war

Two things I still have in mind from my first meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin as British Foreign Minister, along with Prime Minister David Cameron a decade ago. First I was thinking, he had the coldest eyes I'd ever seen in anyone.

And to think that I've met many of the world's greatest criminals and tyrants, that means something. The second impressed me that he simply wanted to sell us more fuel. More than in any other case, he continued to focus on the gas issue.

Didn't we need more gas? What about a special pipeline that sent gas directly to Britain? Would that not impress our people? But even when Western Kurds were trying to “establish” relations with Moscow, we rejected that offer.

Putin runs a powerful financial and political pyramid in Russia, supported by revenues from hydrocarbons. That's why he's always so focused on doing business. But on the other hand, it is also capable of disrupting European countries, neutralising what it sees as a threat to the Russian sphere of influence through a mixture of social media exploitation, clever diplomacy, military intimidation and gas supply or its disruption.

To him, gain and power go very well together. Some of our allies have not been so resistant to this strategy. Germany has allowed the construction of the “Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline, and is facing very hard party talks on a new government, which is also driven by debates on this pipeline.

Once Berlin accepts this new line, Ukraine and others will be much more exposed to Putin, who will refuse to transport Russian gas from the pipeline on which neighbouring countries depend. Every weak spot in every Western country has been used in multisoldly by Moscow.

Poland, currently distanced from its EU partners, is facing a refugee crisis on its border with Belarus. Hungary, which lacks friends in Brussels, has found a new friend in Moscow. The entire West is remembered for its strategic weakness by tens of thousands of Russian troops flocking to Ukraine, a situation that moves us to wonder what we can do.

For each of these threats, there are answers. The united Western response to the poisonings that took place in Salisbury in 2018 showed that the ability to act decisively and together is more <x0 sleeping” than disappeared.

“Nor Stream 2” is a project that should be abandoned even in this late phase. It can also be agreed on new sanctions, against refugee trafficking activities on the part of the Lukashenco regime in Belarus. Ukraine could benefit from the most sophisticated defence weapons of the West to prevent continued harassment from Russia.

But an essential area for Western countries, where it must intervene to counter a stable erosion of stability, is the Balkans. History has shown many times that neglecting the Western Balkans is very dangerous.

That was after World War I began there in 1914, and the bloodiest war scene in Europe since 1945 was distributed. And there are global issues in the microcosmos Russian intervention, disappointment with European ideals, the distance of Washington, the Tenthacs of Chinese influence, the widespread corruption, the attractive routes to illegal migration, and a conflicted past.

In this region Russia has tried everything to undermine the aspirations of millions of people who can live in stable, Western-oriented countries. A coup attempt in Montenegro -- a strong intervention during the referendum on the name issue in Macedonia, a strengthening of control over business and political life in Serbia.

As to “compled” this mess, the EU has closed the door to hopes for further expansion, while Great Britain has lost its influence due to Brex. This region is problematic. Western governments and electorates find it easy to feel tired in the Balkans.

Can't they solve their own problems? Aren't we busy with China, climate change and David-19? For many, it's tempting to focus on other matters. However, we do not have that luxury.

For years, Serb-run Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik has been undermining the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and has done so with the active support of Russia and Serbia. For Moscow this serves its goal of blocking the expansion of Euro-Atlantic institutions.

Bosnia would be like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, so without any opportunity to join NATO or ever function as a normal country. In recent weeks, the situation has been heavy. Dodik is close to secession from Bosnia, a country with very fragile balance among Croats, Bosniaks and Serbs.

He has declared he will again establish a Bosnian Serb army, the very institution that was once responsible for the genocide in Srebrenica. He is aiming to capitalise on Western weakness and distractions to promote a crisis leading to border review, with the territory he leads to rejoining Serbia.

This development poses a direct challenge to the Dayton Peace Accords. And when someone has the potential to change the borders of countries on ethnic grounds again, there are much more minorities whose location can be used to justify changing other borders: ethnic Serbs in Montenegro, ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, ethnic Russians in the Baltic states.

No one should doubt that what is happening poses a threat to the security and stability of the European neighbourhood. The world is aware of this. EU foreign ministers are discussing the situation intensively.

Last week, the UN high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, warned that the country “faces the greatest existential threat of the post-war period”, and that “perspectives for division of the country and an iris conflict are very real”. His predecessor, Paddy Ashdown, did a fine job 20 years ago to show that no violation of the Dayton Agreement would be tolerated.

But at that time, he had the strong support of Western capitals, who had very fresh memories of the recent vicious conflict. During later problems, the EU has chosen the approach of “dialog”, demonstrating still more weaknesses.

The British Foreign Ministry will strongly raise these issues when NATO foreign ministers meet in Riga, Latvia, next month. But in the meantime, some urgent decisions and united action are needed. Britain and the EU should join the US in imposing sanctions on anyone who violates the Dayton Agreement.

Western countries must unanimously reaffirm their support for Bosnia's high representative, supporting his direct intervention in Bosnian affairs to protect the country's integrity. Most importantly, the small European force known as EUFOR must be reinforced with NATO troops deployed to strategic areas of criticism such as Brcko and Tuzla Airport.

Such measures may seem dramatic, but it is only strength, determination, and willingness to act, which will prevent the appearance of more trouble. The Afganist fall into the Taliban's hands, showed what happens when the West loses focus.

The same cannot be allowed to happen within the continent of Europe. Sometimes the West should look straight into Putin's cold eyes and face his tactics and associates. The Balkans is an essential place to start. /The world.al..