China, not Russia, is the biggest threat to Kosovo

Russia has been Serbia's main protector, offering security and diplomatic cover assistance by constantly undermining Kosovo's state-building efforts to gain greater global recognition.

Today, however, Russian influence is fading. China has filled the void with economic diplomacy; Kosovo and other Western Balkan states must recognize Beijing's growing influence and guard against its malicious acts.

The Western Balkans have been Russia's strategic priority since Nato had been exiled to prevent genocide against Kosovo Albanians in 1999. Russian President Vladimir Putin is still staring at Amer's uniform moment. He is motivated, not by Slavic solidarity, but by anti-Americanism and hostility to liberal values.

Russia and China work in tandem. Leader Xi Jinping and Putin are united through their sense of historical humiliation. They oppose the integration of the Western Balkans into Euro-Atlantic institutions. Serbian President Aleksandar Vuciq is a figure that diligently seeks to meet their demands.

China has passed Russia for authoritarian influence in the region. It has also replaced Russia as Serbia's main supporter. As Russia seeks to fuel chaos and instability, China is systematically taking steps to integrate and control Balkan states economies.

Chinese debt diplomacy

Russia's influence is fading not only in Kosovo, but throughout the region. Montenegro joined NATO in 2017 despite Russia's objections, followed by Northern Macedonia. Romania blocked Russian Army ships making shipments to Serbia in 2019. In 2020, Serbia cancelled its participation in “Slavic Brotherhood”, military exercises with Russia and Belarus.

Serbia and China, on the other hand, have found common points through the Bree and Road Initiative [on the other hand] China. Its funding crushes indebted states and fuels corruption. China benefits by catching resources needed for economic development. Montenegro, especially, is highly vulnerable to the looting Chinese spell to control ports and infrastructure.

Funding comes at a price. The BRI leaves states subject to Beijing's political agenda. Serbia supported the Chinese crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and strong stance against Taiwan.

As co-operation between Serbia and Russia has advanced, security co-operation between Russia and Serbia has been scrapped. Although Serbia is an observer in Russia's Russian-led Security Organisation, it held 13 military exercises with NATO and only four with Russia in 2018. Russia strained relations with Serbia by transferring six MIG-29 warplanes, and then sending the $185m repair project. Serbs were furious when they saw a GRU officer at Russia's embassy in Belgrade on video until he bribed a former Serbian official.

Serbia is on the market for various and varied military equipment. In August 2020, Serbia agreed to buy the FK-3 missile system. Serbia also chose the air defence system from France, ahead of Russian technology.

In 2019, Serbia's trade with Russia and Russia-led Euro-Asian Economic Union were only eight percent of Serbia's overall trade, with exports worth 5.4 and imports 9.4 per cent. China is proving to be a better economic partner, offering $4 billion in direct investment and over 5 billion in loans and infrastructure projects.

Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, is an instrument of China's foreign policy and security policy. As part of the “Digital Road of Silk”, the US accused Huawei of advancing Kin's interests by collecting intelligence purposes information, something Huawei has denied. Huawei is treated through commercial channels, as well as through the Centre for Digitalisation and Innovation in Belgrade. Unlike Serbia, there is a strong presence even in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

China was also very clever in the diplomacy of the vaccine. Serbia initially relied on Sputnik, the Russian vaccine for Covid-19. Today, it is expanding co-operation with China, using Sinovac in responding to pandemic.

NATO must take Kosovo until 2028.

China's capacity is overrated. Xi's reputation has been tarnished by lack of transparency over the Codov-19 pandemic. China's economic miracle is slowing; economic growth was only 6.6 percent in 2018, the lowest rate in 28 years. Its population is declining, slowing economic growth further. The Chinese Communist Party consists of elites, which hardly represent 1.4 billion Chinese.

Kosovo needs a steel response to the bad intentions of Russia and China. It should launch a strategic planner's <x0rup on Russia and China” to study their activities and develop a political and security response.

They stole a regional strategy and a communications plan. Kosovo must co-operate with neighbours who feel the same way to collect and share information. It should also expand co-operation with Western intelligence agencies.

The US could build Kosovo's armed forces through training and equipment complying with NATO standards. It should be considered the Marching Map for Defence Co-operation with Kosovo, similar to American agreements with Baltic states.

Natto could play an essential role in building Kosovo's capacity, giving Kosovo a quick path to membership by 2028.

As China moves its malicious operations forward, Western Balkan states must have a more effective strategy of counter-intelligence. China's peaceful growth is myth. While Russia is still a threat, China's growth is a greater threat.

*Phillips has been High Councillor and Foreign Affairs expert at the US State Department during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations.

* Translated: Periscope