Trump vs Biden: Will America hold fair elections in November?

It's a scenario that the American State Department has warned about the world: a ruling politician in a democracy with weak institutions, tries to hold power hard, cast doubt on the quality of the elections, who should have dismissed him from office.

Now in an ironic turn of events, the UN experts are worried that this could happen right now in the US: thanks to a global pandemic, the very low citizens' trust in the government, an archaic electoral system, and above all, a president who has testified many times to the willingness to break up the norms of democratic governance.

Will he leave in his new book “? Trump and the 2020 electoral mess”, law professor at Amherst College, Lawrence Douglas, describes how such a scenario could happen, starting in the middle of November 3rd.

Most of the TV networks, they announce election winners the Democrat Joe Biden challenger, except Fox Night. Donald Trump refuses to accept the result. What may follow, Douglas argues, is a constitutional crisis, with the Trump and President of Congress Nancy Peloz, referring to the 1947 Deputy Act, each announces himself commanders of the armed forces on the day of inauguration, January 20, 2021, while the US Constitution and federal laws are powerless to provide a solution.

“If we have a incumbent president who refuses to leave.. . Our federal election law would only exacerbate the crisis -- he adds.

Such a scenario might once seem more like a fantasy. But questions about the November elections are on the rise in recent months, while Mr. Trump, who is currently behind in polls at a considerable distance, has criticised the use of the election vote.

And dilemmas peaked last Thursday, when the president raised the idea of delaying elections, even though the date is set in the constitution. The 2020 elections will be the most manipulated in history. Would the U.S. be a big shame, pushing them until people can vote properly, safely? he wrote on the social networks.

Democratic politicians and activists, but even the most neutral analysts, believe Trump's statement on elections stems from his fear of losing in elections. So he's trying to de-motive the potential voters of Biden, or create ground to counter the outcome.

On the other hand, the potential for a very troubled election process is increasing as a result of circumstances created by the coronary pandemic.

Many experts are concerned that when less than 100 days of elections remain, a large number of states are well behind preparations to manage and count votes via e-mail, or voters' ranks before polling stations.

They warn that delays in the number of votes by mail could mean that in “the election night” may not have a clear winner. And this would be a slow development disaster”- says Rebecca Green, co-director of the election programme at the “William & Mary” law school in Virginia.

In fact, it is not the first time Trump has tried to put mud on the election process. In recent television debates in front of Hillary Clinton, he said he was not sure if he would accept the 2016 presidential outcome as he spent the last four years discussing the result, including the loss he suffered in the popular vote.

Trump established a Presidential Commissioner for Election Integrity, who spent a year and a half investigating the president's claim that millions of illegal votes had cost him the popular vote. In the end, the commission was distributed.

Asked in July by Fox News, if he would accept the election outcome in November, Trump said:” Let's see. I won't just say yes! Meanwhile, some Democrats have also questioned the events leading up to the 2016 outcome, accusing the Russians of interfering, and questioned whether then FBI Director James Comey's decision to reopen an investigation into Hillary Clinton's e-mail had an impact on the election.

Even the rival Biden has expressed concern that Trump may be setting the stage for manipulating this year's presidential. “My biggest and only concern is: This president will steal this election! ”- said Biden during an interview in the “The Daily Shoe”.

Ned Foley, director of the programme on election law at Ohio State University Law Faculty, says rhetoric on both sides is alarming. Bayden has declared that the country cannot resist a second mandate of Trump. While Trump has warned a manipulated result, he will not recognise votes cast by mail. If elections close this year, we'll be fine. In the opposite case, we'll have a lot of problems”- says Foley.

This scenario can contribute to the stable erosion of citizens' trust in American institutions, which has accelerated during Trump's mandate. The situation is burdened by the president's frequent criticism of key media in the country, the intelligence community, courts, and any other institution challenging him.

At the same time, the hyper-partisan media and often distorted information on the internet, and which often has nothing to do with reality, could encourage a candidate to reject official results. American officials are warning that a major increase in postal voting as a result of coronarys will lead to delays in reporting results, which are unlikely to be announced overnight.

And some experts are afraid of this delay, may push the loser candidate to cast doubt on the result. In the mid-term elections in 2018, in a number of election areas in California and Arizona, the Republicans celebrated election night, and later days when votes were counted by mail, the final victory met the Democrats.

A highly controversial scenario would happen if such a result were observed in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, three states where Trump and Biden would strongly rival each other to win. All three states are headed by democrat governors and republican-controlled legislatures.

According to this scenario, the events of 1876 presidentials could be repeated, Douglas says, referring to the race between Raderfor Haje and Samuel Tilden, which was introduced just two days before the new president's inauguration ceremony. After those elections, Congress approved the Voter Count Act, banning individual states from having more than a number of votes for any election college.

Election researchers say that many of the problems that dominated the recounting of votes in the Bush-Gor facing in 2000 also remained unresolved.

As the 2000 elections ended when the Supreme Court, ruling in favour of Mr. Bush, was Mr. Gore's decision to accept the court's decision, the one who guaranteed the peaceful transfer of power, argues Douglas, a scenario he says he cannot predict what Trump would look like in the era.

Taken by cuts from “The Financial Times” World.al