It's time for priority definitions

Although it seems a century ago, it has not been long since world economies began to ban production because of pandemic. At the beginning of the crisis, most people had predicted a rapid recovery, imagining that the economy needed only a break. After two months of compassionate treatment and much money, she would return to where she had been. But we are now in July and rapid recovery is an illusion. The post-independent economy is likely to be weak, not only in countries that have failed to manage the spread (such as the United States), but also in those that have been well protected. The IMF predicts that by the end of 2021, the global economy will be slightly richer than it was in late 2019, and that economies of the United States and Europe will be 4 per cent poorer.

The current economic prospects could be examined at two levels. Makroeconomics tell us that consumption will decrease because families and businesses have less money because of bankruptcy and prudent behavior in spending caused by uncertainty about the future. At the same time, the microeconomics show that the virus acts as a tax on economic activities that include close human contact and will continue to change consumption and production trends, which in turn will lead to social transformation.

The theory and economic history teach us that markets, alone, have difficulty managing such a change, especially considering how unexpected I was. It's not easy to turn airline employees into Zoom technicians. And even if we could, developing sectors today require less human power and more skill than those that are disappearing. We also know that structural changes create a traditional Keynesian problem, what economists call the effect of income and replacement. Even if the sectors that do not require human contact are expanding, the increase in consumption they generate will be compensated by lowering spending, caused by the decline in income of those working in crisis sectors.

In addition, there will be a third effect - increasing inequality. Seeing that cars cannot be infected by the virus, they will become a more attractive solution for employers. And since low-income people have to spend more of their income on essential goods, any increase in inequality produced by automation will lead to a contraction.

There are two more reasons to be pessimistic. The first is that monetary policy may help some companies face low liquidity, as happened in the 2008 recession, but cannot solve the problems of payment capacity, or stimulate the economy when interest rates are already close to zero. Moreover, in the United States and several other countries, objections “conservative” to the deficit and debt growth will hinder stimulating actions. The same people were happy to lower taxes on billionaires and large corporations in 2017, save Wall Street in 2008 and help multinational corporations this year. But the benefits of unemployment and health coverage are another story.

The short-term priorities have been clear since the beginning. The sadest thing, is that we have to face health emergency, because there can't be economic healing until the virus is contained. At the same time, it is necessary to protect those most in need, ensure liquidity to avoid avoid avoidable bankruptcy and preserve links between workers and companies. But there are also painful choices to make. We must not save companies that were already on the decline, since before the crisis. This would create “zombie”, with a result of limited economic growth. Nor should we save companies that were already in debt.

David-19 will stay with us for a long time, so we have time to make sure that consumption and investment reflect our priorities. When pandemic came, American society was marked by racial and economic inequality, worsening health standards, and dependence on fossil fuels. Now that public spending has increased dramatically, citizens have the right to demand that companies receiving assistance contribute to social justice, public health and a greener economy. Targeted public spending, which invests in green transition, can be useful, can include a considerable workforce (helping in this way to combat unemployment) and can prove that they are an incentive for the economy. There are no economic reasons that prevent the United States from adopting skilled healing programs make them similar to the society they claim to be. /In Albanian from the world.al