NATO is dying

NATO can be the most successful <x0) coalition in history”, as General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg claims. But it can also be on the verge of failure. After a few turbulent years, during which US President Donald Trump has increasingly turned his back on him NATO, tensions between France and Turkey have escalated significantly, indicating how fragile the alliance has become.

The France-Turkey clash began in mid-June, when a French Navy frigate under NATO command in the Mediterranean attempted to inspect a cargo ship, allegedly violating the UN arms embargo in Libya.

France claimed that 3 Turkish ships accompanying the cargo ship were extremely aggressive “towards its frigate, lighting 3 times their radar lights -- a signal that showed the risk of degrading the situation. Turkey dismissed France's claim, claiming it was the French frigate -- the one who was harassing its ships.

Whatever it was, the fact is that two NATO allies were very close to sharing the fire between them, in the context of a NATO mission. And this is a new crisis for the Alliance, which may warn of its breakup.

Lord Hastings Ismey, first Secretary General of the United States NATO, once said the Alliance's mission was “kept Russians out of Western Europe, Americans inside, and Germans kneeling”. Of course, dynamics changed over the following decades, and especially the relationship with Germany.

But the broad basis of co-operation a common perceived threat, the strong American leadership, and a sense of common purpose remained the same. Without US leadership, the entire facility risks collapse.

It is no coincidence that the last time two NATO allies approached a war between them during the Turkish occupation of Cyprus in 1974 U.S.A. was occupied with the Vietnam War. In fact, the clash between Turkey and France took place just days after it was discovered that Trump had decided, without any preliminary consultation with the allies of America in NATO, the withdrawal of thousands of American troops from Germany.

Germany may no longer be on the front line as during the Cold War, but the American forces located there still serve as a powerful curber of Russian aggression along the east wing of NATO. By attracting those forces, Trump has sent an important message to Allies: guaranteeing European security, is no longer the top US priority.

As America's departure from Europe has accelerated under Trump administration, it began over a decade ago. In 2011, when Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, was looking for a <x0-second turn of attention to Asia”, then US Defence Secretary Robert Gayt warned that if NATO did not prove itself important, the US could lose interest in the alliance.

The Alliance did nothing like this -- until December of last year, its statements at the recent summit failed to address the challenges posed by China's growth. And in the meantime, the United States had lost interest. And now, under Trump, this disinterest has become an open hostility.

Without the US as leaders, NATO allies have begun to focus in different directions. And the clearest example is Turkey. Prior to the recent row with France, Turkey bought a Russian anti-missile defence system, S-400, despite US objections.

Furthermore, Ankara has intervened in Libya, providing air support, weapons and fighters to the Tripoli-based National Accession Government. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seems certain that his direct relationship with Trump will protect him from the expected consequences for his behaviour.

Trump's decision not to impose sanctions due to Russian weapons purchase, beyond reducing Turkey's participation in the F-35 combat aircraft programme, seems to justify Erdogan's reasoning. But Turkey is not the only one involved in Libya.

France has done the same. Offering military support to Russia-backed general Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya, to fight Islamic militants, France is clearly listed against its NATO allies. While President Emmanuel Makron denies allegations that he is supporting Haftar in the civil war, he recently voiced support for Egypt's promise to intervene militarily against Turkey, which he says has a “criminal responsibility” for its actions in that country.

As tensions with Turkey escalate, France is more insistent than ever that a European approach to security and defence that would be directed de facto by France is more than vital. The fact that popular support of Makrón within France is only increasing his sense of urgency.

Put aside political motivations, Makron has said loudly what others have accepted with half voice : NATO is experiencing a type of cell death “” due to Trump's suspicious commitment to protecting America's allies.

In view of the US's distance from NATO, it has started long before Trump, there is little reason to believe that this trend will turn back, though it may slow down if he loses the November elections.

If Europe does not start to think of itself as a geopolitical power, and take responsibility for its own security, Makron argues, it “will no longer have control of its destiny”. Last December, NATO commemorated 70 years of peace, stability and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.

But cracks within the Alliance are deepening, raising serious doubts about whether it will manage to celebrate its 75th anniversary. The time for Europe to develop its defence systems and capabilities is right now.

Note: Ana Palacio, was Spanish Foreign Minister / “Project Syndicate” World.al