Pandemia and the New World Order

Great crises also bring great, usually unforeseen, consequences. The Great Depression fostered isolation, nationalism, fascism and World War II, but also brought Nee Deal (New Agreement), the establishment of the United States as a global superpower, and finally the process of decolonisation.

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 produced 2 failed American military interventions, Iran's establishment, and new forms of Islamic radicalism. The 2008 financial crisis triggered an increase in anti-Estabilism, which replaced the world's leading leaders.

Future historians will surely track relatively large effects caused by the current coronary pandemic. But the challenge is their previous discovery. It is now clear why some countries have been better than others in crisis management so far, and there are all reasons for these trends to continue.

And it's not about the kind of regime. Some democracies have reacted well, others are not, and the same is true of the authorities. The influential factors regarding successful responses to pandemic are state capacity, social trust and leadership.

The countries with all three elements a competent state machine, a government that citizens trust and listen to, and effective leaders have had an impressive response, limiting the damage they have suffered from David-19.

Meanwhile, countries with dysfunctional states, polarised societies or weak leadership have reacted poorly, leaving citizens and their economies exposed and much more vulnerable to the virus. The more you learn about Coddy-19, the more it seems it will last a crisis, measured for years and not three months.

The virus is recently looking less deadly, but it remains highly contagious and is transmitted in many cases without any symptoms. This has led people to tend to avoid taking it seriously enough, and thus the virus will continue to spread widely throughout the globe, causing a large number of dead people.

There will be no moment when countries will be able to declare their victory over the disease. Rather, economies will open slowly. Hopes of a V-shaped recovery seem too optimistic. More likely, economic growth will be an L-shaped curve with a long tail or some E.

The world economy will not return very soon to its pre-Cavid situation. And in economic terms, a long crisis means more business bankruptcy, and major damage to industry such as shopping centers, retail supply chains, and travel.

Only big companies will be able to handle the hit, with technology giants coming out mostly earned, as digital interactions are becoming increasingly important. But in the meantime, political consequences can be even more significant. Populations may be forced to perform heroic acts of collective self - sacrifice for a time, but not forever. A long epidemic of time, combined with multiple job losses, a prolonged economic recession and a huge debt, will inevitably create tensions that eventually turn into a political response.

Against whom, it is still unclear. The United States has had a very bad reaction to pandemic, which has further dimmed its international prestige. Global distribution of power will continue to shift eastward, as East Asia has been better able to manage the situation than Europe or the US.

Although the pandemic started from China, and Beijing first hid it, allowing it to spread, China will benefit from the crisis, at least in relative terms. Over the coming years, pandemic can lead to the relative decline of the United States, the continued erosion of liberal international order, and the resurrection of fascism worldwide.

But it can also bring about a rebirth of liberal democracy -- a system that many times has surprised skeptics, displaying an extraordinary power of resistance and renewal. Elements of both visions will appear in different countries.

Unfortunately, unless current trends vary dramatically, the forecast is generally bleak. And negative consequences are easy to imagine. Nationalism, isolation, xenophobia, and attacks on the world liberal order have increased for years, and this trend will only be accelerated by pandemic.

Governments in Hungary and the Philippines have exploited the crisis to give themselves emergency powers, moving them further away from democracy. Many other countries, including China, El Salvador, and Uganda, have taken similar measures.

The obstacles to human movement have surfaced everywhere, even in the heart of Europe. Rather than co-operating constructively for their common benefit, the countries have shut themselves down, they have quarreled with each other, and they have made their rivals “kka Turku” to justify their failures.

Increasing nationalism will increase the possibility of an international conflict. However, in view of the continuing stabilisation of nuclear weapons, and the common challenges facing all key actors, international unrest is less likely than domestic ones.

Poor countries with crowded cities and poor health systems will be hit more heavily than others. Not only social distance, but even minimal hygiene, such as washing hands, is extremely difficult in countries where many citizens do not have regular access to clean water.

The shift caused by climate change was already a slow crisis raging in the southern hemisphere. Pandemia will complicate its effects, making large populations in developing countries ever closer to survival threshold. Popular anger will rise, and increased expectations of citizens are classical recipes that can lead to revolutions.

Depressed ones will try to migrate, demagogue leaders will exploit the situation of climbing to power, corrupt politicians will seize the opportunity to steal what they can, and many governments will fall.

Previous pandemics have fostered visions, cults and new apocalypseic religions, which grow over extreme anxieties caused by prolonged difficulties. In fact, Fascism could be viewed as such a cult that arose from the massive violence and displacement of populations caused by World War I and its consequences.

However, just as the Great Depression not only produced fascism but also revived liberal democracy, even the current pandemic can produce some positive political results. The practical realities of pandemic management favour professionalism and expertise, and they easily expose the demagogy and disability.

Due to the arrogance of Jaiir Bolsonaro, Brazil is currently mired in a health disaster. In Russia, Vladimir Putin, first tried to underestimate the risk of pandemic, then claimed Russia had it under control, and now it is changing approach when Covid-19 is spreading throughout the country.

Putin's legality, which was weakening before the crisis, may be fading further. The gap between rich and poor, between people and countries, is deepened by the crisis, and will grow further during a prolonged economic stagnation.

But along with problems, the crisis has also revealed the ability of governments to offer solutions, relying on collective resources. A continuing feeling of “alone together” can foster social solidarity, but the development of more generous social protections, as did the major national sufferings of World War I and Depression, stimulated the growth of welfare states in 1920-1930.

In April, the US Congress approved a $2.3 trillion aid package to support businesses and individuals damaged by the pandemic. And this crisis could increase support for government interventions in addressing other major social problems.

And recently, the crisis could foster renewed international co-operation. While national leaders are dealing with the game of who is to blame for pandemic, scientists and public health authorities worldwide are deepening networks and links.

Taken with cuts from “Freign Affairs” World.al