Erdogan tailed among the saddle: How was Turkey humiliated in the face of Assad in Syria?

Erdogan is now isolated on all sides, at enmity highlighted by all major players in the Syrian crisis. After sending 7 thousand additional troops along with weapons to Idlib last month to reinforce existing military positions, Turkey has clashed in an open fight with Bashar al-Assad's regime. It's attacked airports and radar sites below what's de facto “that's front”. He has declared all elements of the regime to be legitimate targets for shooting.

In mid 2011, when the Arab spring was continuing, Ahmet Davutoglu, then Turkey's foreign affairs minister, met Assad in Damascus and asked him to discuss the protest demands. Assad refused. Davutoglu then told me that the Syrian leader just wouldn't even listen. Chance lost. As Assad's measures intensified, Erdogan gave Turkish assistance to the rebels, including Islamic groups.

But what is now happening in northwest Syria is no longer a war through third parties. It's a direct confrontation between two heavily armed states nearby. And it risks putting Turkey in a deeper military conflict with Russia, Assad's main ally. Erdogan's spokesmen and pro-government media continue to say that last Thursday's debakli, when 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an attack on their convoy in Idlib, was the fault of the Syrian regime.

It is hard to know the facts, considering that Erdogan has oppressed independent journalism. But the truth seems to be quite different. The number of victims may have reached 55, according to Metin Gurcan, a military analyst who writes about the respected regional online al-Monitor platform. Local reports speak of up to 100 deaths. And it also seems that most of these dead ones had come, not from attacks by Syrian aircraft, but from intentional Russian attacks.

Erdogan has refused to blame Russia, and the Kremlin has flatly denied responsibility. But last Thursday's sequence of events, which started with Turkish attacks on Russian aircraft flying south of Idlib, indicates something else. The Turkish fire, which included the Manpads air defence system, also threatened the Russian strategic base Cometim.

The angry Russian commanders, or perhaps with orders from Moscow, seem to have set a line after the deadly little encounters. The Turkish convoy was hit at noon that day. In the hours that continued, with soldiers injured in urgent need of medical assistance, Moscow rejected Ankara's request to open air space allowing evacuation, Gurcan has reported further.

Was the purpose of Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, to give a strong lecture to Erdogan? If so, it seems to have worked. Erdogan is now placing his hopes on a face-to-face meeting with the Russian leader to prevent more costly clashes Turkey cannot win. He will fight towards Moscow on Thursday in search of a ceasefire after Putin agreed to split up some time.

Yet, Putin may not be in a position to listen to Erdogan. It desperately requires an end to the war in Syria, where Russian forces have been involved for nearly five years at a considerable financial and human cost. He wants a victory for his client, Assad, in Idlib, the last province held by rebels, for his regional expansionist policies. He wants to declare a major strategic victory in the West and especially at the expense of the United States.

Putin's award for allowing Erdogan's debauchery could be Turkey's full or partial withdrawal from Idlib, but also from other territories in Syria occupied by Turkey west of the Euphrates HINA and from the Kurdish-dominated north-East region thatconstrally and Invado last autumn.

Erdogan's internal weakness of the “home-of-crash strategy” is further exposed by the inability of Islamic extremists who rely on Idlib to resist Syrian-Russian advancements; and by the refusal of the US and NATO to help in any way. Turkey has sought support for its latest co-operation catastrophes. Only limited assistance with surveillance and intelligence information was provided.

Once again, Erdogan is reaping what he had planted. He repeatedly had molested and criticized NATO, the United States and European leaders with humiliating, disparaging words. He bought a Russian air defence system despite strong American refusal. Erdogan has jeopardised the Western War against Islamic State. [ ISIS is declaring war on Syria's Kurds. And he has tried to view Syrian refugees as his weapons that he kept in Turkey to demand tribute The EU otherwise blackmailed him with chaos and misery. Not surprisingly, the domestic opposition is growing.

While the crisis in Idlib has intensified in the past months, Erdogan has said his only goal was to uphold the 2018 ceasefire agreement and to presuppose a teter mass influx of refugees towards Turkey. He has reasonable intentions. But his aggressive tactics and angry rhetoric, as usual, are proving to be self-destructive. Millions of people displaced from their homes hungry, and Idlib's terrified inhabitants may soon have no protection against Assad's ruthless advancement.

Turkey's failure is no reason for joy in Europe and the US. What she does is underline her responsibility to intervene directly in the defense of civilians in Idlib, stop fighting, and seek a broad peace. To leave this job to Erdogan, it was known to not work. Western democracies have the last chance to do the right thing in Syria: frame and strengthen a fair deal that will last and Putin and his bombers say to return home.

Simon Tisdall is a foreign affairs commentator.