The Corleone effect on populist leaders

Both refused to respect the distance, were opposed to isolation, and compared to the 19cvid to the common flu. Both attacked scientists, took part in major activities without wearing a mask, and praised the benefits (still without demonstrating) of hydroxiclorokina. Both have been infected: this happened to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro months ago, and now US President Donald Trump. The question remains whether Trump, like Bolsonaro, will emerge from politically strengthened disease.

Even before the pandemic broke out, many commentators had made comparisons between the two presidents. They share a nationalist outlook, have the same authoritarian tendencies, appear as strong leaders and are in good relations with each other.

Similars that were consolidated with pandemics. There are still many unknowns at present about Trump's state of health, and both countries are naturally very different. But similarities are surprising. Bolsonaro's response to the virus, like Trump's, has been deemed a failure by almost everyone. Brazil is home to Latin America with more infections (about 5 million) and second place in the world for death rates (over 145 thousand), after the United States (211,000). Like Washington's, the Brasília government has never ordered a nationwide isolation. Moreover, Bolsonaro downplayed the risks of the disease even after more than twenty of his associates resulted positive (among others after a visit to the Trump resort in Florida).

In the summer, when he discovered that he was sick, Bolsonaro came out of the presidential palace and addressed reporters who stayed a few inches away, claiming that he had slight symptoms because of hydroxyclorokina. Then he took off his mask, smiled, and said: “You can tell from my face that I'm okay and I'm quiet”

In March, when he had not yet been infected, the president addressed the country and called it a flu-19x0>, arguing that thanks to “his past as athlete”, in case the infection did not have to be disturbed. But the virus made him appear vulnerable, and first his popularity declined. Bolsonaro continued to go public during the illness, constantly stressing that the symptoms were not strong, participating in video conference meetings and posting messages on social networks.

A few days before his recovery was announced, the president attended a ceremony outside the official residence. When the first negative buffer arrived, he announced the test's results on Twitter, along with a photo of a package of hydroxyclocks. Then he took a ride on a motorcycle. The president immediately tried to take advantage of the situation, claiming that his recovery showed that government policies on pandemic were fair,” said Michael Schiffer, president of the research centre “American Dialogue”.

“He also tried to strengthen the image of the strong boy “. A fundamental aspect for a leader admired for authoritarian rhetoric and anti-system.

According to polls, Bolsonaro's popularity is at 40 per cent, down from 32 per cent in June. Most Brazilians do not consider him responsible for the deaths caused by Ovidius, and polls conducted before the 2022 presidential elections give him an advantage over potential opponents.

Lesson to Learn

Furthermore, Bolsonaro has never stopped repeating that recovery of the economy should have priority over the control of the virus. In early July, he wrote on Twitter an identical message with that published by Trump, a few weeks ago: “The solution cannot be worse than the” problem. In a way, this strategy worked. Compared to neighbouring countries, Brazil experienced less dramatic economic contractions. This is also because the government has made a contribution to the poorest areas of the population. The move increased the president's popularity, at least temporarily.

Bolsonaro is also helped by the fact that the country is politically divided and has widespread hatred against elites, as in the United States.

That said, there are differences between the two presidents. First of all, Bolsonaro will not face real political objections, since the Brazilian left is extremely torn up (Lula, his main opponent, will not be able to run due to two corruption sentences). In addition, Bolsonaro took time to rehabilitate his image after his illness. Trump does not have this time, since he is less than a month away from elections and polls put his opponent, Joe Biden.

But Bolsonaro's parable shows what Trump's strategy might be in the coming weeks. Anya Prusa, an analyst at the Brazil Research Center “Wilson”, asked what lesson we can learn the answers: “Bolsonaro is not politically damaged. He was attacked in parliament and courts. Now his popularity has grown and his presidency has stabilised. Six months ago it was rumored that it threatened impechment. Now those voices have kept quiet”. / The Atlantic ʹ World.al