Two Systems, One World

Like the 20th - century Cold War, between the United States and the Soviet Union, the new rivalry between China and the West is a race between basic political systems that are fundamentally incompatible. And the idea that freedom and democracy will prevail should no longer be taken for granted.

B With the approaching 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the issue of freedom has returned to the spotlight in Moscow and Hong Kong, even under very different historical and political circumstances. Events are reminding us that the modern era has been built on freedom as well as the recognition of the idea that all humans are born equal. This radical idea of Enlightenment, when it took root, marked a separation from the rest of the story. But times have changed. In the 21st century, we face a fundamental question: Can a modernised form of authoritarianism represent an alternative to liberal democracy and rule of law?

In 1989, the conscious answer to that question would have been no. Not just in the West, but all over the world. Since then, however, we have witnessed the revival of nationalism in Europe, the failure of the Arab Spring, the election of Donald Trump as US president, the return of Russia to revanscism, and the appearance of a global China. Now, all “bat” for liberal democracy has been cancelled.

The rise of China as the second military, economic and technological superpower suggests that there is already an alternative development model. In present - day China, rule of law and democracy are considered a threat to one - party rule. Therefore, protests that are under way for freedom and democratic accountability in Hong Kong reveal a division, not just between two norms but between two systems of political power.

For a while, it seemed that China had found a formula for building a bridge. The principle “a state, two” systems were supposed to enable the regular reintegration of Hong Kong and beyond (expected) Taiwan. If this formula now fails in Hong Kong, there will be an immediate escalation of military tensions along the Taiwan Strait, because it will become impossible for the Chinese government to accept or ignore the special status of the island.

And yet, the formula so far has really worked. Hong Kong has become extremely important for the Chinese economy, because it offers access to global capital markets and serves as a financial gate, for direct investments. And the relationship with Taiwan, for the most part, has remained relatively calm.

The agreement with Hong Kong worked because the government in Beijing showed sufficient respect for the city's semiautonous status. But as China has become stronger, the perception it has of itself as a global superpower has caused a change of behavior. Chinese authorities are increasingly exercising influence over Hong Kong, implying they want to go in the direction of “a state, a system”.

The proposed law (now suspended) to allow the extradition of those arrested in Hong Kong to China was widely seen as a threat to democracy and rule of law in the former British colony. The authorities in Beijing know very well, that this attempt to weaken Hong Kong's autonomy, not secret operacines from foreign intelligence services, is the reason why millions of people have gone out on the streets to protest.

Seeing the current structures of power in China (and Russia), massive protests this summer in Hong Kong (and Moscow) have little or no success in short term. However, they are important because they offer a setback to the disease of democracy, which has emerged throughout the West.

More widely, the world's division into two systems instantly brings back memories of the Cold War. But in that conflict, the main issue was the military force, so the nuclear weapons race had a central role. When it came to living standards, the Soviet bloc never had a chance (as it became clear in the so-called Debat in Cuzina, between then-President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Kruschev in 1959).

However, competition with China will be more on the issue, which of the systems offers more technological and material progress. The climb of China, from a country plagued by poverty to economic power, is one of the greatest achievements of the modern era. Millions of people have been driven out of poverty and are already part of a consumer - oriented middle class, while millions of others can quickly follow their path.

At the same time, although China has built its own army, it has not been able to exert force beyond its neighbours, unlike the Soviet Union. When China pursues its strategic interests in Africa and Eastern Europe, it does so financially and financially. Its global influence comes not because of the military, but from the economy and increased capacity for rapid technological innovation. For the West, “The Chinese challenge” is to show that for most of mankind, its model of democracy is better and better than Western-style authoritarianism.

In this wider context, US President Donald Trump is a kind of Chinese Troy Horse. Although he is waging an aggressive trade and technological struggle against China, he is also doing everything he can to undermine the credibility of the Western model. In historical terms, attacks. His to democracy will have far more consequences than the fees he sets. To make things worse, Europe, with its economic weaknesses and geopolitical gullibility, is also failing to protect the Western model.

At this stage, the rise of China cannot be prevented. This country is simply too big and too strong to be boycotted or reined in; However, the Chinese people's desire to participate in global prosperity is completely legal. The West has little choice but to maintain good relations with the new superpower, while simultaneously defending its values. The growth of China and the Chinese system will inevitably create more competition, and these new rivalries must be treated peacefully at any cost. A world of eight billion people cannot face a global conflict.

If the Chinese model of authoritarian modernisation is to succeed in long-term terms, it's an issue that belongs to future Chinese generations. Those who have no memory of past horrors, such as the Cultural Revolution, can view the Chinese model as merely a matter of course. But the age. Modern was built on freedom. As we have seen during the summer of Hong Kong and Moscow, that lesson will not be forgotten soon.

Project Syndicate World.al