The Other Act in the Brex Drama

Amber Ruddi's resignation was the weekend's severe blow. It was even surprising how the Labour Minister from the moderate wing of conservatives endured in Boris Johnson's ministerial cabinet. Now she resigned, saying she could no longer see the “well-mannered, loyal and moderate conservatives.” The prime minister's actions she called a “akt of political vandalism”.

On Monday Boris Johnson meets in Dublin with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. The meeting at the government residence aims to be a trust-building meeting. But the Irish are angry with the British because Johnson made time for this visit. Faith cannot be spoken of because Johnson has not stated details about an alternative solution to keeping the border open between Ireland and Northern Ireland. He wants to remove Backstop at any cost from the deal.

So far, in the talks in Brussels, it is only about ordinances that will regulate the free transport of agricultural products. According to EU data, the border problem is not solved. Still unconfirmed are the voices of whether the British government will turn into a former version, leaving Northern Ireland alone in the customs union and in parts of the internal market. The EU had proposed this, but later, with the British's will, the Backstop solution came. But this idea Boris Johnson can only achieve with the support of the Irish party, DEP. What that support will be like is known after the elections.

Boris Johnson will again seek new elections in the Lower Room. That's why he needs a two-thirds majority again. But the opposition has vowed that it will not give Johnson that satisfaction. Labusists, liberals, the Scottish party, the SNP and independent deputies will say no until they are certain to delay Brex in October. They don't trust the prime minister. For this time they have one more reason, as Finance Minister Sayid Javid, in a BBC programme on Sunday, said the prime minister would in no way seek to extend the deadline. But in the question of whether he would ignore the law, there was no clear answer. Dominic Raab said all legal opportunities will be seen to avoid delaying Brex.

That a prime minister of clear will violates a law, this has not happened in British new history. There are rumours that Downing Street expects the legal dispute between Parliament or the attorney general brought to the Supreme Court to last so long that Great Britain will automatically exit the EU on October 31st. But this plan would put Great Britain into a serious institutional crisis. It would be the biggest “impact since 1688, when the parliamentary government was established”, the Times writes.

Johnson himself said last Thursday that he would rather be “entered the tomb”, than seek a new Brex extension. But, he hasn't given so far no signal as to what he'll do instead.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said at the weekend that progress is lacking in talks in Brussels: “This is disturbing. The Brits should tell us what they want”. According to him, “will not delay the deadline every three months”. For negotiators in Brussels, the talks are a farce. The British officer, David Frost, has made no concrete proposals. The EU is also alarmed, because it seems it will not take seriously the obligations that come out of political statements, which will guarantee after Brexit equal competitive conditions. Otherwise, it would be impossible to reach a free trade agreement.

Since the second extension of Brexi's deadline, EU Council President Donald Tusk warned the British to use the time, not use “it. That warning was not heard. The French government was skeptical from the start with Brex's extension. Paris is not really expected to say “jo” in a possible extension of the deadline if hard arguments come from London. These may be a second referendum, and maybe even new elections. But the goal is not to give more time, for more political chaos in Great Britain.

What does Boris Johnson have to do? He may ask for a no-confidence vote, but that is what his advisers have rejected, and the prime minister himself seeks to remain in the government. However, a B plan by Downing Street also envisions the prime minister's resignation. This would pave the way for a temporary government with a person trusted by the opposition, who would seek Brex's postponement instead.

At best, Boris Johnson would like to enter an election campaign with all the weapons of populism. Base theme: The people rise up because of Brexi against the Parliament. The elections would be after that in October, if a possible Brex extension had been made.

The other option would be for Johnson to actually enter a legal battle and ignore the law against “No deal Brexit”. The consequences of this step would not be predictable. High lawyers have even warned that Boris Johnson could end up in prison.

And, in the end, Boris Johnson could turn the wheel and seriously seek a “deal” with the EU. But the time for this is too short. By Brex's date, only 52 days left.