Is Angela Merkel's coalition breaking up?

For a party preaching the gospel of solidarity, solidarity is exactly the thing that is missing the German Social Democratic Party more today (SPD). On Sunday, June 2nd, party leader Andrea Nahles resigned after several days of internal pressure (designed by voices within the party as “voltism”

Her decision came after poor results in European elections, falling from 27.3 per cent to 15.8 per cent of the vote, and lost the SPD's raid on Bremen. Nahles' resignation has plunged the SPD into chaos, but it is most seriously threatening the survival of the major ruling coalition between the SPD, the Christian Democrat Union (CDU) of the centre-right Angela Merkel, and its right-wing secular union Christian (CSU).

In fact, the ruling coalition has been fragile since it was formed last year. On the eve of the 2017 federal elections, the CDU block CSU tried to enter a coalition with the Green and Liberals of the Free Democrats Party (FDP), but negotiations were cut short after 11 hours, and the SPD became the second choice in a coalition that was hated by most of its main voters and MPs.

The SPD served as the little CDU partner. CSU, in 3 out of Merkel's 4 cabinets, since 2005. While successfully affecting the implementation of numerous reforms, including the introduction of the minimum wage, Merkel's clever behaviour to SPD policies means voters do not recognise the SPD's credit for either achievements.

The party's special profile faded, and in 2017 it received the worst result in its long history of federal elections. The then party leader, Martin Schultz, said the SPD would no longer enter the future into a coalition with the CDU. As it says, he was wrong.

In the name of political stability, and at the order of the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier himself a former <x0-seconds SPD's” party returned to the coalicion with Merkel's party.

Supporters of the grand coalition, particularly Andrea Nahles, argued that it would be irresponsible not to govern the country, and that political renewal would be possible even within the grand coalition.

But the fall of the SPD's popularity has continued unhindered, and critics of the great coalition, such as SPD youth leader Kevin Kisner, have become much more vocal. The elections for the new SPD leader can end the big coalition, and lead to new federal elections.

The procedure to elect a new SPD leader is not predetermined, but there is an increase in appetite to allow membership to decide. If that happens, the party's base is likely to impose secession from the coalition with the CDU, to have a complete programme renewal, outside of governance restrictions as a small partner.

Under these conditions a candidate of continuity, which would protect the continuation of the great coalition, cannot have any chance of being elected. If the SPD were to withdraw from the coalition, the CDU block/ CSU has two options to avoid snap elections, in which it would likely have suffered a severe blow.

First, he may try to revive talks with the Green and FDP. But success is unlikely to be guaranteed. In the last European elections, the Green received more than double the vote compared to 2017, and would want to take advantage of the moment even in the new elections.

Or the CDU coalition. CSU may decide to continue ruling alone, as a minority government, demanding the majority case-by-case. This is something unprecedented in Germany,
and would not comply with the country's political culture, which always requires stability.
Therefore, early parliamentary elections are expected to be held this winter. They will announce a new era in German politics, as they will be the first elections in the last 14 years where you don't race or win Merkel. So, what will bring new federal elections?

As in other European countries, the political landscape in Germany is changing rapidly, with the main parties losing support, while smaller parties having clear positions on contemporary vital issues such as climate change, migration or European integration, from Green to extreme right, which are gaining ground.

In European elections, climate change was the most important issue for German voters. The alternative for extreme right Germany (AfD), threatened by internal fighting over illegal donations, lost ground compared to impressive performance
in the 2017 federal election.

But it's too early to say if AfD has already reached its peak. The most indication of this will be regional elections in its former Eastern Genmania, which are held this autumn. With the CDU in chaos, and the question of who will succeed Merkel, which is overshadowing other issues, it seems that early elections will bring a new government formed by CDU/ CSU and Gelbri, a weak opposition SPD, and several small parties represented in Bundestag.

This configuration, could revive political debate, which has died down under coalition weight
big tails. But it can also be bad news for Europe. German politics, can be revived by Merkel's removal, but will also become more closed in itself, and the European Union, in just one period of international instability, will lose a country that once led the union.

“Stateman” World.al