Social policies are becoming the key to European populist success

On March 20th, the European People's Party, the conservative bloc in the European Parliament, will decide whether to expel the ruling party in Hungary, Fidesz. PEP has been involved in reacting to this political force and Hungary's Ottoman prime minister, Viktor Orban, for his attack on democracy and rule of law.

However, Western critics of Orban have been equally moderate to understand social and economic policies, which support his popularity. Remember the policies Orban proclaimed on February 10th. So far, the Western stance on these policies, aimed at addressing the country's low birth rate problem, and further reduction of migration, has been negative, but also blind, on their effectiveness in strengthening the support of Orban among Hungarian voters.

Western analysts have failed to admit, that authoritarian nationalists like Orban gain support not only by attacking immigrants but also by implementing economic policies that benefit ordinary people. The main political parties in the West should learn this economic lecture quickly if they want to compete with their populist challengers.

Orban is inclined to link his nationalist message, with generous and popular social policies that encourage Hungarian women and families to have more children. The current fertility rate in Hungary of 1.45 children per woman is below the level of replacement for those who die. And the population in the country has been decreasing since 1989, reflecting a decline that is taking place in all other former communist countries, and that has promoted widespread social support for families.

The plan envisions eternal exemption from personal income tax, for women who are born and raise 4 or more children (Orban and his wife have 5 children). This and other policies in the new package will have a real impact on all families in Hungary.

Women under 40, who marry for the first time, and who have worked for at least 3 years, will qualify for a loan “birth” of $36,000 at a low rate, which will be forgiven after they have children.

Larger families can apply for a $9,000 government grant to purchase a 7-seat car. The grandparents who care for the kids will get paid. And the government will create 21,000 new subsidies.

The main Western media, analysts and politicians, have been ready in the bloc to criticise the plan, thus falling into Orban's trap. “The Economist”, an old lawyer of free market economic policies, who has greatly impoverished Eastern Europe, producing many higher living assets and standards for a middle-class minority, has set the Orban plan too costly.

But critics of the Hungarian prime minister ignore the examples of Poland and Russia, which have also implemented the natal policies in recent years. The fertility rate in Russia is currently 1.75 children for each woman, from 1.17 in 1999, in part due to a grant program for young parents.

Poland has also reached higher birth rates since 2015, following the presentation of the great initiative “Facebook 500+”, which guarantees to parents the cost of school tools, clothes and children's holidays. Both schemes were criticised as very expensive, but Poland's public deficit fell and did not increase.

Rather, these policies have driven economic growth, while significantly reducing child poverty, and added enrollment to schools. Although free market attacks on new and courageous social programmes are not surprising, some of the sharpest criticisms of Orban's policies have come from the left.

Progressives dislike the fact that many of his proposals are aimed at women, in a way that seems to advance a conservative, pro-family agenda. US University of Princeton Professor Kim Scheele, interviewed by International Public Radio, warned that <x0-bores will bear the burden of Orban's failed economic policies”.

And Swedish Social Affairs Minister Anika Strandhal said that “this kind of policy would harm the autonomy for which women have fought over the decades”. These analysts are entitled to say, that Orban politics aim to encourage women to marry, buy homes, raise more children and stay in Hungary.

But their criticism doesn't get the point. In general, these proposals are not austerity. They do not aim to keep women tied at home. Instead, Orban's plan is designed to help women manage their balance at work and everyday life. For that, he must be supported and not rejected.

Get exemption from the income meeting for women with 4 or more children. The main beneficiaries of this program will be the working women, since those with no income will have basically no advantage. Giving money to children's grandparents likewise helps women enter the workforce.

Whether we like it or not, some of the boldest social policy initiatives in Europe come from its most liberal governments. The negative reactions of top public opinion leaders in the West show how unprepared they are to face the Orban, and others in the struggle for voters' hearts and minds.

The populist right is putting rhetoric and social democracy policies in service of authoritarian nationalism. If the West cannot see or understand the appeal of this offer, it will not be able to fight the populists.

Note: Mitchell A. Orenstein is a professor of Russian and Eastern European Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A., and a member of the Institute of Foreign Policy Research.

“Project Syndicate” World.al