Gas Wars in Europe

Russia is increasing natural gas exports to Europe. In 2018, Gazprom sent a record 201.8 billion cubic metres of gas to the continent, or 7.4 billion cubic metres more than in 2017. Gazprom Executive Leader Alexei Miller made those figures public during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on 12 March.

Worried by these data, a number of EU countries and institutions, as well as Washington, are trying to exert pressure on key Russian gas buyers to stop business with Moscow, and prevent the construction of “Nord Stream 2” and Turkish <x2 Stramp”.

Germany is one of the leading buyers of Russian gas in Europe, and wants to buy even bigger amounts. According to Miller, the “consum of Russian gas in Germany has increased by 9.5 percent year-on-year, which means that we supplied it with 58.5 billion cubic metres in 2018. This is more than the capacity of Nord Stream”.

We have to stress, that the increasing trend of demand for Russian gas continues. Therefore, in the medium term, we expect that the volume of gas supplies to the European market will increase even more. By the end of 2018, the Russian gas section on the European market was 36.7 percent”- said Miller.

Shocked by this trend, Russian competitors on the European energy market have taken their steps, mainly at the propaganda level, bringing out more energy-related issues. During his 12 March speech to the leading leaders of the world's largest energy companies, who participated in a conference in Houston, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, urged them to promote the US “ideal” and the benefits of the free “”.

Claiming that countries, including Russia and Iran, had long used their oil and gas resources to interlock the weaker nations, according to their dictatorship, Pompeii stressed: ” We are not only exporting American energy. We're exporting our system of commercial values to friends and partners. The more we can export free enterprises, rule of law and transparency, the more successful the United States will be”.

Neither China, seen by the Trump administration as the main US trade and economic rival, was spared from Pompeo, who accused Beijing of engaging in energy projects in Africa and Asia for the benefit of its own interests. He added that to resist Beijing pressure, a number of countries expect American companies to come to the aid.

The pressure of the United States is most evident in the case of the <x0-Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany, viewed by Washington as a direct contender for the supply of Europe's natural gas. In January of this year, US Ambassador to Germany Richard Greene warned that Washington could impose sanctions on German companies involved in the “Nord Stream 2” project.

But the U.S. State Department then rushed to say that the ambassador's words should not be perceived as a threat, but only as an expression of the U.S. “composition”. Meanwhile, the German Foreign Ministry made it clear that Ambassador Green's actions are contrary to diplomatic practice.

Despite UN explanations, on US Ambassador Green's unprecedented statements, the US daily “The Wild Street Journal<18x1>, reported referring to some officials of the Trump administration, that Washington is actually ready to impose sanctions on investors and companies, which will build the “Nor Stream 2”.

The White House is making efforts to prevent the construction of the “Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline, trying to co-ordinate its efforts, with anti-Russian forces in the European Union. Acting in line with Pompeo's speech in Houston, and information published by the “Theall Street Journal”, the majority of European Parliament deputies, voted on March 12th in favour of strengthening EU energy policy against Russia through a resolution adopted by 402 MPs, with only 163 MPs voting against.

The document, drafted on the basis of a report, prepared by European People's Party MEP Sandra Kalnieste, and earlier adopted by the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, calls on European countries to stop the construction of the “NorR Stream 2” gas pipeline, and to abandon other major co-operation projects with Russia.

Despite political statements, implementation of the “Nord Stream 2” project is in line with a binding legal framework, which has also been drafted by the European Parliament. The legal framework consists of EU law, international conventions and national laws of the countries along the planned” path was the response of project leaders.

Meanwhile, to protect against any unwanted development, Nord Stream Company 2 AG, decided to take preventive action. According to the Financial Times”, the company is considering the possibility that the final part of the pipeline, 50 kilometers inside German territory, will be built by a particular company, while the rest of the pipeline (about 1,200 km) remains outside EU jurisdiction.

Meanwhile, many people in Europe are very skeptical about increasing US natural gas purchases at the expense of gas pipeline imports from Russia. According to the European Commission's latest estimate, by 2023, EU countries will buy 8 billion cubic metres of American natural gas, or 2.4 times more than the actual amount.

But even then, it would cover only 1.6 percent of the oil consumption in the union. At the same time, a drop in gas production from the EU itself will create an annual <x0-grope”, of 30-40 billion cubic metres, most of which will be filled with Russian gas, from the Gazprom and LNG pipeline.

In the face of a growing demand for natural gas, Great Britain could resume efforts to build large shale gas deposits, following the country's central discovery of a source with a capacity of 37 trillion cubic metres.

However, all previous efforts to launch industrial shale gas production in Europe failed due to natural conditions different from those in the US, legislative norms and the public opinion stance. Given the situation that exists today, there are many reasons to expect a growing US effort, and pro-American forces within the European Union, to prevent the implementation of Russian energy projects by political means.

Many, however, will depend on changes in energy demand, both in European countries and Asia (mostly in China), where much of the liquid natural gas of the US will inevitably go, leaving European countries empty-handed.