Populism Is Running Out

Could 2019 be the year that populism gets the tattoo? In 2016 the votes for Brex and Donald Trump surprised political institutions in Great Britain and the United States.

But 2019, it's a good chance to be the time when the populist project collapses under its own influence, as it becomes increasingly clear that bad ideas have bad consequences.

Optimistic claims on Brex in 2016 have already fallen. British Prime Minister Teresa May's agreement with the EU has been denounced as treason by the majority of former campaign leaders “Leave”.

But a Brex without agreement, which now supports most of the union's supporters, threatens to cause difficulties and humiliation on its doorstep; while a decision to hold a second referendum, it would be an even more pale attraction from the peak of populism 3 years ago.

The prospects for the American branch of the populist project no longer seem attractive. Mr. Trump's popularity is on the decline again, and the stock market has fallen. Robert Muller will report soon, and his findings may trigger launching the president's dismissal procedures.

Perhaps more dangerous for the president, the main republics are being disturbed after the obstacles in the mid-term elections, and Jim Matisse's resignation as secretary of defence.

But while it is tempting to argue that populism will start to strike, it is also premature.

And for that there are three main reasons. The first is that, although populist politics are in trouble, the fundamental economic and cultural forces that established the movement are still active. Second, populism comes in right and left forms. While the right - hand version is facing difficulties in the US and Great Britain, the left - hand version can be greatly strengthened this year.

The third reason is that populism is already a global phenomenon. Popular politicians are in power from Brazil to Budapest, and from Rome to Manila. The Italian and Brazilian elections of 2018 were especially important. The governments of the largest country in Latin America and a major Western European nation are led by populist parties.

Brazil's president, Jair Bolsonaro, has adopted some of the rhetorical topics of Trumpism, including denouncing against China, “globalism” and cultural elites. But Mr. Bolsonaro, unlike his North American model, may have a period of honeymoon in 2019, with increased confidence in businesses and consumers in part because of his promise of liberal economic reform.

Mateo Salvini, <x0); face” of Italian populism, may also have a good year. Italy, it seems, has avoided a clash with the European Commission on the country's budget deficit, and many Italians seem to enjoy a government that has a more aggressive attitude towards Brussels.

If Mr. Salvin's League party does well in the European Parliament elections in May, it could trigger holding new elections at home, allowing the League to emerge as the dominant political force in Italy. The weakness of the country's public finances means that Italian populism is vulnerable to a market-led reaction. But for now, Mr. Salvin

It's still growing.

Many populist leaders have repeatedly thanked Mr. Trump. Thus, the American president's impeachment (impeachment) would surely have an impact on the morals of populists worldwide, as would Brex's failure. But even if the Angloaxeson of populism sinks into trouble, the global forces that promote this movement still appear to be strong.

Fear of migration, economic uncertainty, and cultural conservativeism are still a powerful cocktail. The appeal to a simple past will continue. Damares Alvesh, the minister for women in the Bolsonaro government, vowed last week that in the new Brazil “the men will be dressed in blue, and girls in pink”.

Cultural issues fuel right population. Meanwhile, the left version of populism will continue to stress minority rights and the economy. Next year, it can be fruitful for left populists. The race for the future democratic candidate for the American presidency has begun.

Most of the energy in the party, seems to be being spent on its arm “progressive”, represented by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Okasio-Cortez. These are politicians attacking the rich and privileged in a way that was once taboo in traditional American politics.

In Britain, chaos after Brex could give Jeremy Corbin the chance to become prime minister. A British victory for Corby would inspire left - hand populists around the world, just as Brex convinced right-wing populist (including Trump) that history was moving in their direction.

The population of the left has an important branch in Latin America. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's election as president of Mexico in 2018 was enthusiastically received from left worldwide. Mr. Corbin, once an enthusiastic Hugo Cavezi fan in Venezuela, is an old friend of Obrador's, and was an honorary guest at the opening ceremony.

The pragmatic Centrists will suspect that Mexican and Brazilian experiments with populism will have the fate of Brex and Trump presidency. But the center needs some new melodio. Politicians like France's President Emanuel Makron, whose response to populism is to play old music more strongly, risk being overcome. Populism is in trouble, but populist momentum has not yet passed.

FINANCIAL TIMES THE WORLD. AL