Iran palmed the Americans of Saudi Arabia it's a big-mouth paper tiger

In the Old Middle East, a single sweeping conflict between Israel and Arab countries had many fronts, and the West had the right to protect the flow of oil into the global economy. In the new Middle East, the defined conflict is of a wider extent among the many players seeking regional primacy.

This new conflict began when former US President Barack Obama initiated the broad withdrawal of the US from the region, but intensified under Donald Trump's administration. Obama, at least, had a political vision for the region. With the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015 that prevented the nuclear weapons race, he hoped that easing sanctions for this country and rapid economic growth would enable Iran a gradual reintegration into the international community in the decades to come. The Trump, contrary, has no strategy, and seeks to hide America's attraction, ultimately demonstrated in Syria with open treason against Kurds, with a military rhetoric and massive export of weapons to American partners and Gulf Allies.

As for Saudi Arabia, the rich state in the region, and the pre-dominate suite power [if we don't count Turkey], that time has been fueled by the ambitions for regional hegemony at least in the Persian Gulf and in the Arabian Peninsula, and it views Iran as the main rival. In recent years, Iran and Saudi Arabia have fought devastating wars in Yemen, resulting in the loss of lives of many civilians and in humanitarian disaster.

But the situation changed last month, when a night attack targeting the heart of the Saudi oil industry took the global economy into shock. Some fears were able to pass through undetected Saudi airspace, where they accurately released bombs on key oil emissions. Saudi air defence If there was anything, it seemed to be caught asleep, suggesting that the attackers had intimate recognition of local conditions.

A midnight strike without warning raises clear questions. Who did, and how did they remain immortal? Yemen's rebels claimed responsibility, but they are unable to carry out such attacks. Taking into account the technology used and logistics involved, the only suspect is Iran, despite the Iranian government's harsh denials. And, in terms of motivation and interest, it is clear that Iran took the most of this attack.

Saudi Arabia, after all, has been humiliated in the eyes of the world and exposed as a big-mouthed card tiger. In addition to the undeniable failure of Saudi counterintelligence to detect or avoid attacks is the obvious fact that Saudi Arabia will lose the war in Yemen sooner or later. At that point, hegemony aspirations will become an even greater source of ridicule.

And so, in the final analysis, responsibilities for the attack on Saudi Arabia lie with Qassem Suleimani, the general who is in charge of Islamic Revolutionary Corps. With this attack, Iran proved itself to be a regional power with amazing and logistical technology that cannot be easily rejected. This could radically change strategic recognition in the region. All the oil monarchs on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf are certainly reevaluating their foreign policy, interests, and alliances.

Iran has also made Trump appear weak. Following his refusal to respond militarily to an attack on an ally, Trump dismissed his national security adviser, John Bolton, a staunch enemy of the Iranian regime. No one should shed tears for Bolton. But no one can even say that his expulsion has not invited that attack to happen.

Trump's dilemma in foreign policy has played a key role in the current situation. His decision to abandon the nuclear agreement with Iran without much thought of what it would have done has already proved to be extremely dangerous foolishness.

But there is another dynamic that needs to be considered. After the G7 summit in Biarrriz, France, last August, it was said that a meeting between Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani could be held. The attack on the oil plant in Saudi Arabia took place just a few weeks earlier, just as both leaders were in New York for the UN General Assembly, where they may have met. The question, then, is whether these attacks were the result of an internal power struggle between radicals and Iranian moderates.

Whatever the case, with the position of Saudi Arabia already eroded, the current military powers of the region are Israel and Iran. Currently, the two countries appear to be moving towards a dangerous confrontation. Israel is deeply concerned about Iran's visible capacity to launch long-distance attacks with its fears or ballistic missiles. And if this was only a significant threat to Israel's national security, Iran could try to supply Hezbollah or other regional allies with similar capacities.

If Israel were attacked with the same precision and protection as Saudi Arabia, the Middle East would be plunged into a war of a scale that has not been seen so far. Unfortunately [but fortunately for Russian President Vladimir Putin], this is the reality of the world in which the US have abandoned any claim of global leadership.

* The item is translated by P ERISCOPI from the original Project-Syndice website. The original title was “The dangerous confirmation of the new hegemony in the Middle East”. The author was German and Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister -Kancelar from 1998 until 2005.