Kosovo divide leads to disaster

Since the ethnic Albanian leadership in Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, this territory has remained a controversial and partially sovereign subject. Currently, Kosovo has been recognised by more than 110 different countries with or without influence from the United States and Germany to Malawi and Vanuatu. However, Kosovo's sovereignty remains de facto; it has not yet managed to become a member of the United Nations, there are only distant prospects for membership in the European Union and is still very dependent on diplomatic sponsorship of states that come to its defense.
Currently, Kosovo's sovereignty is rejected by Serbia, which enjoys support from members of the Security Council like Russia and China; five countries in the EU, including Spain and Cyprus, which have problems of separatism, and a number of other countries worldwide, among which India, Brazil and Indonesia. As such, Kosovo finds itself in a frozen conflict similar to other controversial territories like Northern Cyprus, Nagorni-Karabaku, Transnistria and Abkhazia. All are functionally separate from the state from which they have left, but at the same time are unable to enjoy their de jure sovereignty.

Since 2011, the European Union has been actively involved in organising a “normalisation of relations” between Serbia and this province. A number of proposals predict that both sides agree to a certain “modus virgin”, which may or may not include recognition, but certainly call for a stable, democratic, integrated and multiethnic Kosovo with an empowered Serb minority maintaining strong institutional ties with its mother state. The problem is that no agreement has been reached, meaning that UN or EU membership continues to remain blocked indefinitely.

One option that often arises is partitioning Kosovo into the Iber River. This means reuniting Serbia is the northern part of Kosovo that is populated mainly by Serbian ethnicity, which has resisted integration within the Pristina government. In exchange, Serbia would recognise the rest of the country as an independent state. Officially, partition has been rejected by all sides, including the EU, the UN and the United States, but has often been hinted by some policymakers that accepting a recent option like this would end the deadlock. Recently, administration officials Trump, including Security Adviser John Bolton, have stated they will not prevent the realisation of such an idea if Pristina and Belgrade agree to it.

Currently speaking of partitioning Kosovo along with a “exchange of land” larger, under which the majority Serb part of northern Kosovo is given to Serbia, while Kosovo wins the Presevo Valley region, with Albanian majority. In addition, Kosovo reportedly will be granted UN membership, while Serbia will open the green light for EU membership. The source of these rumors is Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vucic, who with his movements aims to portray himself as the only person standing between Serbia and a possible diplomatic disaster over Kosovo's fate.

He has neither confirmed nor denied that such discussions are under way with Hashim Thaci, his Kosovo counterpart, while this has restored tensions between the two communities.

The arguments in favour of Kosovo's division have existed since 1999 and generally turn to the following points:

First, Kosovo's north has never been brought under Pristina control, whether during the transition period following NATO's 1999 intervention or after Kosovo's declaration of independence in 2008. Under these conditions, Pristina lacks authority and legitimacy over a population that in most of them is identified as citizens of Serbia because, in all meanings of the word, Serbia has never ceased to be functional in that area. Identification tools are issued by Belgrade, goods are bought with the Serbian dinar, Serbian election posters cover the walls, and politicians from Belgrade regularly go on visits. Serbian radio television stations fill the waves, Serbian telecommunications companies offer constant service, and schools continue to operate within a Serbian educational curriculum.

Second, despite official claims by Kosovo Albanian leaders on territorial integrity and border compatibility, most know that the Serb-controlled north will never be fully integrated. Pristina's authority has, at best, merely the visual symbol. The real power lies within a heated blend of the authority of Belgrade, local leaders and a sophisticated organised criminal network, which leads three Mitrovica municipalities and urban centre north of Ibri as a breakaway region within a separatist entity.
For years, the Kosovo Albanian leadership has accused the north of running parallel structures -- a whole of political, economic and social organisation financed by Belgrade -- an ironic statement that recalls the way such ones were raised by Albanians, when Kosovo was under Yugoslavia's sovereignty.

Recently, these Serb parallel institutions have evolved to well-known political parties and organisations in the Constitution within Kosovo, but they still receive orders from Belgrade and not from Pristina.

A third argument in favour of partition suggests there should be at least one type of “release” for Serbia, if Kosovo wants to gain independence de jure. The north will never be integrated, so the argument stands, but it is the only part of Kosovo that Serbia can clearly protect because of its geographical proximity.

/Foreign Police