Bosna, “Jerusalememi” of Erdogan in the heart of Europe

Arbana Jarra and Alon-Ben Meir

While Turkey's president, Erdogan, is on the run, he is now, more than ever before, using religion to feed “ ” The Balkans, especially states that are more sensitive to Islamic influence.

Bosnia is at the forefront of Erdogan's ambitious Islamic agenda, where he does not spare political resources, capital or financial, even under his current economic difficulties, to extend his influence and distance Bosnia as far from the EU.

Bosnians certainly cannot survive simply being devout Muslims, with the rate of youth unemployment at nearly 60 per cent. Turkey is unlikely to recover economically in the near future, and Erdogan's promises to offer financial assistance and investment will fall into the face of his financial crisis.

The struggle of words, hyperinflation, U.S. sanctions, and reckless investments on borrowed money have greatly reduced the value of Turkish Lees. Five years ago, $1 was worth 2 lira; today, six lira are exchanged for a dollar, but this has not discouraged Bosnian leaders from seeking closer co-operation with Erdogan.

Bakir Izetbegovic, the Bosnian Muslim leader and chairman of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, declared in May (before thousands of Turkish immigrants and Bosnian supporters of Erdogan who had traveled from all over Europe to Sarajevo) that “God sent our nations a person to convert them to their religion ... He is Recep Tayyip Erdogan. We stand up with God's help” The crowd cheered when a leader of the Turkish diaspora equated Sarajevo as “Jerusalemi in the heart of Europe”.

Bosnia was more than willing to open the door for the Turkish president to organise an election rally in Sarajevo, especially after the EU refused to allow it to campaign in member states. For Erdogan, the Balkans is the region that could put it in a position to realise its political goal of resurrecting certain phenomena of the Ottoman Empire, while undermining the EU's influence in these countries.

Bosnia consists of two entities: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose population consists of Bosnian Muslims and Catholic Croats; and Republika Srpska, where Orthodox Serbs are the majority. About half of Bosnian citizens are Muslims, many of whom regard Erdogan as their trusted leader, if not their savior.

For more than a decade, Erdogan has invested a lot in spreading his influence on the Balkan states, and Bosnia is still one of its main goals. He promised a multibillion-euro investment for the main highway that will connect Serbia and Bosnia. Turkey and Bosnia signed the agreement to build the highway connecting the two Balkan capitals -- a project estimated to cost around $3.5 billion -- but has not yet started due to lack of financial resources.

While the Turkish Agency for Co-operation and Development (TIKA) a “carkiner” through which Turkey promotes its Islamic agenda in the Balkans has completed more than 800 small projects in Bosnia, mainly dealing with religious institutions.

European leaders have already expressed concerns about Turkey's influence in the Balkans. Just a few months ago, French President Emmanuel Macron stated: “I do not want a Balkans to turn towards Turkey or Russia”.

During his May speech in Sarajevo, Erdogan urged supporters to actively participate in European politics to oppose the anti-Turkish Senate. “You should be in those parliaments instead of those who betray our country”, he said, referring to Turkish-rooted European lawmakers.

In a conversation with us, Orhan Hadzagic, political analyst from Bosnia, said Erdogan is considered more than just a foreign leader. He asks that, “from Erdogan's recent visit to Bosnia, what was the benefit for Bosnian citizens from that electoral rally -- an event featuring the leaders of two parties openly supporting each other?”

Hadzagic is convinced that his country is risking EU entry by opening the doors to Erdogan, from where he is directly challenging Brussels. “Many NGOs”, he said, “are close to Turkey; they receive financial support to change the negative image and perception about the growing authoritarian rule in Turkey, among Bosniaks “.

A large majority of Bosniaks see no alternative to the European Union, they are passionate about their support of Erdogan. In a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute, released in March of this year, 76 per cent of Bosniaks have claimed to have positive access to Turkey's role in their country.

For Erdogan, Bosnia holds a special country and will try to keep its image there as a religious leader and economic savior. The list of Erdogan's priorities is growing, so Bosnia is inevitably descending to that list,” said Hadzagic, “, which will reduce [Edogan's influence] on the state, nongovernmental organisations and media here in Bosnia. As a result, this will lead to a reduction in Ankara's influence on Bosnia”.

As such, Erdogan is increasing his focus on local media and nongovernmental institutions in Bosnia by offering them financial assistance to support his political agenda. But even this is becoming financially heavy, making it harder to continue with his media campaign.

Sead Numanovic, a well-known Bosnian journalist, told us that “The EU and the US are still (and I am afraid they will continue to be) many passive in the Balkans, this environment gives Erdogan an additional space to work easily with his anti-Western agenda “. That explains why the AK Party Erdogan has recently opened an office in Sarajevo, its first official branch in the Balkans.

Turkish Embassy spokesman in Sarajevo told “Foreign Policy” that Turkey strongly supports Bosnia and Herzegovina's membership process in NATO and the EU. “Turkey is not [in Bosnia] to extend influence, but to encourage political stability for the sake of the entire region”.

Xhemal Ahmeti, historian and expert on Southeast European affairs, said Bosnian Muslims are currently the most loyal to the Turkish Ottoman.

Bosnian Muslim “have lost hope that their trinitar state will become an EU member. That is why they rely on Turkey to survive, since they as a sandwich between Catholics, conservative Croats and Orthodox jurisdictions “, Ahmeti said to add that “Paradoxically, while Bosnian Muslims seek Erdogan's protection from Orthodox (Serbs and Russians), Erdogan's close allies are Putin and [Serbia's prime minister] Vucic. ”

Bosnian leaders and citizens must understand that Erdogan is moving ever closer to Russia and Iran. The EU has already made it clear, especially with respect to human rights, freedom and democracy, which are preconditions for EU membership, so Bosnia should not be a conflict with Erdogan because he has flagrantly abandoned the fundamental principles of the EU and the development of a full democracy in Bosnia does not serve his interest.

It is now up to Bosnian leaders to determine their fate, which should inevitably be linked to full membership with the EU if they want to grow and progress as they embrace full democracy.

This does not suggest that they sever relations with Turkey as a regional power, with which they will have to intensify the development of a lucrative relationship once Erdogan leaves the political scene.

They must be careful in their relations with Erdogan, who is manipulating them using Islam to pursue his dangerous political agenda.