Waiting for Germany

More than a decade after the 2008 financial crisis, the European Union is still in political stagnation. But the EU must be strengthened if we want to succeed the European integration project. Likewise, the forces for new nationalism will continue their attack on democracy, rule of law and determining values of the other bloc.

The main reason the EU has remained in the stalemate is Germany. For years after 2008, when the EU was facing slow growth and the ongoing economic crisis, Germany insisted it could not move the European project forward alone and that it would have to wait for France.
Then, in the spring of 2017, Emmanuel Macron was elected to the French presidency on promise to push for EU-level reforms and modernise the French economy. But when France was trying to get back on board, Germany was approaching the September 2017 general elections, resulting in significant losses to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and led to a several-month effort to form a new government.

The same month Germany voted, Macron gave an impressive speech in Sorbonne, where he proposed specific reforms to stabilise the eurozone, establish a joint border defence system and create a joint defence initiative. At the same time, Makron's proposals received icy answers in Germany; seven months later, Germany has yet to offer any answers to itself.

Instead, it has remained silent about Europe's future and has hinted that its main concern is its own money. Never will the Bundestag budget committee seem to have taken Germany's European policy hostage.

In the past, this policy was run by Chancellors, who understood the historic importance of European integration. Still today, Merkel seems to have allowed dark MPs and those of the bavarese sister party, the Christian Union (CSU) to limit it to the chairmanship of any EU-level reform negotiations.

Taking advantage of the opportunity offered by Macron will never come again would be political folly and historical blindness. The two main powers of the transatlantic system are in the process of leaving that system. The UK has sought to exit the EU, effective next spring. And the United States under President Donald Trump has questioned their transatlantic security guarantee and is now obstructing the global trade system on which Europe has been based, and especially Germany since 1950.

The threat of a Western division is shaking the economic pillars and security of European stability. China has emerged as a global power capable of leading the world's economic centre from the Atlantic to the Asia-Peace region. Europeans now face the prospect of remaining behind the US and China, not only geopolitically, but also in the key economic sector of the 20th century and one -- artificial intelligence.

Europe also faces dictatorial threats near the house. Russian President Vladimir Putin is testing the borders of Eastern Europe by military means. Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan is taking his country farther NATO and the West, while abandoning democracy and rule of law. And the entire Middle East can slide into a prolonged crisis, promoting more migration in Europe.

War in Syria shows how weak Europe has become. Serving simply as a destination for refugees, the EU has become insignificant in Syria. Even worse, those who formulate Germany's foreign policy appear to believe there is no military solution there, and that only Russia can bring the war to an end.

This argument does not take into account the fact that a military solution is now in the hands of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, thanks to the support he has received from Russia and Iran. It also fails to take into account the fact that Russia is not in a position to stop major regional conflict, even if it wants to. After all, Iran will not give up the land it links with the Mediterranean, nor will Israel accept the presence of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and missile in Syria. In fact, the danger of a conflict between Israel and Iran in Syria and Lebanon has become great. These developments present new challenges in Europe. On the one hand, the EU must prevent a nuclear arms race in the region, not only by defending Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement, which Trump now threatens to break. On the other hand, the EU has a link agreement and historical responsibility with Israel, so it cannot remain neutral or turn a blind eye to Iran's hegemonic ambitions in the region.

Except for France and Britain (for now), the EU and its member states are very unprepared for these risks. And this is especially true of Germany, where the military has suffered from years of saving. The post-war American security guarantee allowed Germany to take a long break away from thinking strategic threats. But now that Trump has questioned America's commitments to its allies, Germany can no longer rely on others.

Financially, Germany regularly accuses other Eurozone member states that do not adhere to the rules for saving policies. On security issues, however, these charges have been opposed. The period of support is running out and without the US, Germany's only defence source is a stronger Europe, which certainly cannot be reached for free.

No one expects Germany to approve Macro's proposals entirely. But at a time when the foundations of global order are changing at Europe's expense, marginal reforms will not be enough, and Germany has not unveiled its vision of a stronger Europe, nor has it shown willingness to take necessary actions or investments. Europe and the West must create a Franco-German response as they once did Franz Mitrand and Helms Kohl, and Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer before them. They have to do it now. The story won't stay in place waiting.

/Project Syndicate