Scary challenge for the President: Erdogan's opponents have joined

President Recep Tayip Erdogan, the figure dominated political life in Turkey in the past 15 years, shocked his country this week by approaching presidential elections from November 2019 on June 24th of this year. Erdogan hopes to complete the transformation of the ruling system from parliamentary to president, and managed to surprise the opposition.

But his opponents have moved quickly, displaying fresh energy and a highly strategic thought. Erdogan will now face the very real possibility of a democratic loss. “Bring those elections,” The Republican People's Party speaker said CHP] of the centre-left publicly for upcoming elections.

Erdogan, his Justice and Development Party [ The AKP is strong but not as powerful in a highly polarised Turkey. A survey by left newspaper Soczu indicated that Erdogan has 43.5% of the vote, not having the majority needed to win the presidential vote in the first round. So less than in the 2014 election when it had 51.8%.

The Timming of elections, less than two weeks after Ramadan holiday, gives organisers time to establish voting procedures across the country. Candidates will find it very difficult even to carry out their campaigns. You can't even organize a wedding on June 24,” wrote a journalist on Twitter.

But Erdogan's opponents have responded by forming an unpredictable alliance against the current president based on two potential candidates: Meral Akesner, the charismatic leader of the newly formed Iyi Party party, and former President Abdullah Gul. It remains unclear which presidential candidate will run.

On Sunday, 15 out of the 131 members of the CHP in parliament changed the course by becoming with the Iyi [who in Turkish is <x0nd> well-being”], giving a large block enough to pass the rules that would stop the party and Aksener a former history and nationalist professor who has been critical of Turkey's measures against press and dissidents under Erdogan .

On Monday, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu met with his ideological opponent, Islamist party leader Felicity Party, to win support for an alliance. On Tuesday, Kilicdaroglu also met with Gul, who was once under Erdogan.

“Democracy is for each,” said CHP's Engin Altay, according to local media. “For that reason, 15 deputies surrendered from our party and joined the Iyi Party, not with a political goal, but with a democratic goal: for democracy to win. ”

Erdogan and his allies in politics and the press have mocked opposition maneuvers. On Wednesday, Erdogan urged Kilicdaroglu to run for president himself, courageously challenging him. But Erdogan's surprise call for early elections has caused his opponents to smell weaknesses in him. It has consistently resisted opposition calls for early elections over the years.

This change comes at a time when Turkey is facing economic difficulties. Turkish lira has fallen and inflation is on the rise, undermining investor confidence and forcing Turkey to freeze interest rates. On Wednesday, facing pressure, the Central Bank raised the interest lines by 75 points. This move will increase the value of the lira, but will hurt Turkey's real estate sector, and will put it in trouble to add, the lower urbanised middle class recently living on soft loans. These constitute the pillars of AKP and Erdogan's power.

“The main motivation for emergency elections is actually related to the future of the economy,” said Sinan Ulgen, a Turkish specialist in Carnegie Endowment for Foreign Policy. “I think there is an admission within the government that the economy is entering a very difficult period. Clearly, this challenge will significantly reduce Erdogan's popularity. ”

Moreover, one of Turkey's largest banks, Halkbank, is subject to major US fines for breaking international sanctions on Iran in a filthy case. On May 7th, judges will issue the sentence for the former director general of the bank, already sentenced in January for breaking US laws. Sentences against the state bank could further damage the economy by reducing investors and will undoubtedly hurt Erdogan's reputation.

“Treasury Department view will be: This is a chance to send a massive message to Turkish financial regulators, Turkish banks and banks outside Turkey,” said Richard Nephew, former State Department detention specialist already legalising Columbia University.

The sudden change of the political picture in Turkey may have brought early elections announcements. Iyi is a subsidiary of the Nationalist Party, which is a partner of the AKP. The new party's emergency and the apparent momentum threaten to draw supporters from the MHP due to the party's benevolent response of devlet Bahceli with Erdogan. The early elections could set a dam of votes stemming from the president's allied party.

Erdogan and his supporters, in turn, have cited regional uncertainty and the crisis in Syria as excuses calling for early elections. A new government soon formed, they say, would be more willing to make difficult elections in foreign policy without worrying about the political consequences. We need to remove the election issue from the country's agenda as soon as possible,” said Erdogan last week, a day after Bahcel called for early elections in what was clearly a choreography movement.

“There was every chance of elections being held in 2018, the cause of Syria and the economic and political hurt affecting the AKP,” said Ziya Meral, an researcher. “Even within Erdogan's party is not all right. Their electors too have questions about where the country is heading. ”

But more surprising that the election date has been the opposition's response. Few expected Kilicdaroglu, to come up with a strategic challenge to Erdogan, though in recent months he has shown surprising creativity, leading a high profile march from Ankara to Istanbul to challenge the country's orientation to authoritarianism.

The success of Kilicdaroglu's strategy could eventually be realised by Turkey's Kurds. Erdogan's most staunch opponents -- the Kurds -- have reacted negatively in terms of Aksener's candidacy: he served briefly as interior minister during the years -- a time when a dirty fight was taking place against Kurds and left. Our roots will not vote for him [Axener],” said Sezai Temeli, of the Kurdish Party. But they have named Gul a politician who deserves respect.

Kurds have long been divided into their sympathies between Islam and the left represented by HDP. Felicity Party has recently tried to get votes from Kurds at the local level and has achieved some success; one thing other opposition parties should consider.

The tense story underlines seemingly insurmountable contradictions that have divided Erdogan's opponents and that contradictions are serving him. But if the CHP-led coalition manages to attract Kurds after themselves, they will thus make an extraordinary challenge against Erdogan and the AKP. There are already calls for the opposition to put aside decades of prejudice and distrust to unite against Erdogan.

Such a campaign will make a formidable challenge. The AKP controls most media. Erdogan has been campaigning for a year. He restructured it. The AKP, moving politicians away who viewed them as weak or uncompetent. Finally, he is trying to restrict the public assembly. But there is hope for the opposition.

“for the first time, we see CHP until it displays a wise strategy and until it sacrifices for the benefit of Turkish democracy,” said Meral. This took AKP by surprise. The AKP always calculated that regardless of what they did, there would be a large number of votes, and the opposition would remain split without seriously challenging them. ”

Foreign Police: Periscope