Albanians' concern with John Bolton

Many Albanians have been expecting President Donald Trump's appointment of Ambassador John Bolton to the key post of National Security Councillor with some concern. The main reason is that Bolton is one of the rare American diplomats who has voiced opposition to Kosovo's independence in 2008.

Bolton's arguments changed several times, but to sum up it represented Kosovo's independence as something contrary to American interests, such as violating international law, the unnecessary provocation of Russia and a starting point for the outbreak of Islamic radicalism in Europe.

Albanians are not the only ones who doubt his appointment. Many of his critics accuse him of being a warmonger, as someone who prefers the use of force where diplomacy could have sufficed. In particular, some are concerned that Bolton has been brought to the cabinet by President Trump to break the six-way agreement with Iran. According to it, Iran has banned the production of nuclear weapons in exchange for removing the trade blockade. Trump, Bolton and a large number of American politicians agree that Iran is building nuclear weapons anyway. According to their critics, they actually just want the next war in the Middle East. The irony is that Trump became president after a campaign he mocked and severely criticised American military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan. But he has already changed much of the stances of the campaign.

For North Korea, he has advised a preliminary blow that he said would break up the regime and sabotage the ability to fight seriously. Declarations like these have only increased the image of someone who can act irresponsiblely at the top of American national security. North Korea is light weight to fight America, but pessimists imagine the scenario where a single nuclear shell escapes American missiles, killing tens of thousands to one million people in South Korea, Japan, or even the western American coast. U.S. victory could be lost if it comes at such a price.

The world's affairs are leaving them for the moment. How much should Albanians in the Balkans worry about this appointment of John Bolton?

The panic would be inappropriate. Even a little archaic concern. Let's not forget that when John Bolton was strongly declared against Kosovo independence, he was no longer a diplomat in office, but a commentator in the media, and a researcher in American political think institutions. Officials who are no longer in charge express controversial thoughts but in office replay the established decisions and goals of the American State.

Second, let's not forget that Ambassador Bolton was at the time angry with President George W Bush and especially Secretary of State Condoleza Rice. He was originally appointed to the US post ambassador to the UN. In the face of discontent in the U.S. Senate and between the allies of America for his views, the administration decided to replace him. Bolton never forgave that change. No wonder, then, that if Bush and Rice were to come up against Kosovo independence, Bolton would be declared its flag.

Third, Bolton, as normal as it is in the US, was against recognition of independence as long as it had not yet become a fact done. He continued to stand against her in the first few weeks, but since then he has carefully miscarried the subject. It can be provoked by Serbs and Russians to repeat and protect his stance, but never discuss what is already an irreversible truth. Kosovo's independence did not destabilise the Balkans, but the region has remained at peace and co-operation between neighbouring countries, even between Pristina and Belgrade, has come to improve and strengthen.

The fourth, even if Bolton had remained an enemy of Kosovo's independence (unable in view of his 10-year silence, but for the sake of argument), he would have no time to deal with it. He is entering the Trump cabinet to engage in the second phase of the presidency, where all the time he will eat up his clash with China after the start of the trade war, the meeting of President Trump with the North Korean dictator, and above all the drafting of a new insulting and combating policy against Iran and the Ayatolah regime.

The latter, more than Kosovo's job, will put Ambassador John Bolton on Albanian radar. For those who haven't noticed, or have forgotten, Bolton visited Albania full of a year ago, on the occasion of the Nevruzi holiday, to celebrate alongside the opposition of the Ajatolah regime, which has been sheltered in Albania. These days the next visit took place with President Trump, Rudy Giuliani. If Bolton wants to draft a plan that includes inciting the collapse of the regime in Iran, the mujaedins sheltered in Albania will no doubt be part of it. What may be the consequences for Albania is hard to imagine. Perhaps there will be no consequences, but Tirana has more reasons than Pristina to follow the consequences of its appointment.

Fifth, Bolton has been distinguished as one of the most anti-Kremlin voices in the United States. Even with a president who is sympathetic to Putin, the antipathy remains. It can even take other dimensions because Russia has invested a lot in Iran and does not want a breach of the deal, much less an elimination of Iran's counterweight against Saudi Arabia and other influences in the region. Moscow is even involved in the forge of an unimaginable triangle a few years ago: Russia-Turkey-Iran. The three countries could have fought each other because of the clash of interventions in Syria, but I feared the cost of that scenario and mutual opposition to a potential Kurdish state, has turned them into allies. Not least have the failed or fabricated coup in Turkey affected, the collapse of relations between Saudis and Turks, and certainly the nationwide failure to cement Erdogan as the almighty president in the country, at the expense of media freedom, the operation of the opposition, unpoliticalised trials and peace with the Kurdish minority.

To get back to our issue, it is unlikely that Bolton will accept the Russian dictatorship in the Balkans, much more so when Moscow relations -Washington will come with the inevitable deterioration despite President Trump's feelings and preferences.

The sixth, Bolton will not be Secretary of State, the post he has dreamed of, but the Councilman for National Security. One simple reason is that this post is the only one in the cabinet that does not require approval by the American Senate. It's no secret that not only the Democrats, nor the Republicans in the Senate would vote for Bolton. They didn't want him for the ambassador in 2005, they don't want him in the presidential cabinet today either. His move to the cabinet would happen sooner or later. Many Albanians and not only have they been breathing from Bolton's perspective on the cabinet. In 2008, 2012 and 2016. All the main republican candidates for presidents have topped the list for Secretary of State. Even John McCain of Mitt Romney. Many Albanians in the US have had one more reason to vote for a democratic president out of suspicion they had for Ambassador Bolton. Now this “ankth” with or without base will be deleted permanently. Perhaps it is better that he comes to power now, when Kosovo is done, when attention has gone elsewhere and when he is no longer as influential as in previous years. The last one, we will see how long Bolton will stay in the Trump administration, where top officials are circulated and replaced at relatively high speed. Trump is not an ordinary president, and time has shown very quickly that it is difficult for personality figures to stay under his shadow. The backstage clashes seem inevitable. Bolton is also a difficult personality. For good reason, over years, he has created numerous opposers and discontent. It can thrive under President Trump's direction, but it is more likely that a conflict will erupt between the two. Trump comes from a world where he's used to standing, Bolton for a decade and a half has enjoyed the freedom of not being in charge, where he said and did what he wanted. They can create a very good duet, but they can crash terribly. Time will tell.

Until then, Albanians can follow what the man to whom they are so afraid will do. It is natural that we would have loved someone else appointed for that post. Yes, it is unlikely that anything fundamental will change for us and Kosovo.

/Yliriapress