What will happen to the European Union in 2019?

Nine leaders in Parliament and Commission. The EU will be renewed next year, challenges remain populism, trade, migration and budget. Will it be harder than 2018?

The European Union had to manage many crises in 2018, since stalled talks on Brexit, trade disputes with the US, increased right-wing populism, conflicts with Poland, Hungary and Romania over the lack of rule of law. Can it get worse? Yeah, it can be, but not necessarily.

In May 2019 a new European Parliament will be elected, the only democraticly elected parliamentary parliament in the world. Then in autumn, people are appointed to all major European posts, from the president of the Commission to the president of the European Bank. This does not solve crises, but the possibility of a new beginning arises.

More Radicals in Parliament

If you trust election researchers then the number of right-wing rakidals and parliamentary populists in the European Parliament will rise from ten today to 20 per cent, so it will double. Stronger factions will not become EU opponents, but they will take on more influence and can stall integration and reforms. The election outcome will reflect the population's growing dissatisfaction with the EU. The thought that EU membership does not bring anything, has little to do with facts, but populists know how to stir that feeling, from Le Penny's populist in France to Salvin in Italy and Gauland in Germany. Drowned by immigrants, dependent on globalisation? This dark and wrong image must oppose EU supporters. My first <x0th course of “must counter “Europe is important to me” for welfare and peace.

EU to shrink

With the British gone, the European Union decreases for the first time in history that will cause power to drop, at least in foreign and security policy. Without Great Britain's military force, the EU has little force in the world. Economically, Europeans can succeed without the British. The damage is greater for Britons themselves. That Brexit will initially have negative consequences has been acknowledged by the government itself. Because of the total blockade in the lower House of Parliament, there is still the possibility that Brexit will be postponed, which would be good, no matter how.

Italy's populists Remain Challenge

After Britain's secession, which pays in the EU, those other countries that also pay, such as Italy, will become more important. They have to pay more in the common budget, but exactly the populist government in Italy remains a security factor for the EU. The leader of the radical right-wing Lega, Matteo Salvin, is as minister of the interior, disappointed. He wants to become prime minister and will therefore campaign by turning Brussels into the Turkish head. If Italy ends up in recession, the EU Commission is to blame. Few expectations existed that the current dispute over the 2019 budget managed to fade slightly into ten, despite major Italian debts. But the hardest budgets for Italy are 2020 and 2021.

EU needs impulses

Counterweight for rival EU populists is currently French President Emmanuel Macron with his little-consolidated party. If Macron loses momentum after the “Istanbuls protests”, then the EU loses its driving power. So next year, there must be impulses from Berlin. Will it perhaps be a new coalition of conservatives and Greens, with a new leadership staff, more enthusiastic for Europe, or does Merkel continue to confuse her feet in crisis solutions?

Despite the internal crisis in the EU, storms in foreign policy will increase: threats from Russia, competition with China for high technology and influence in Africa, as well as unpredictable deal maker of the White House. Return to the digital economy, which uses artificial intelligence and weak economy, will require a lot of power in 2019 and many ideas. The EU Commission can win points here. Here Europe can show that it can be achieved more than alone. Yes, the year 2019 will be the 30th year of social change in Eastern Europe and will not be easy, but never easy. The EU is accustomed to dealing with crises. So she'll manage the other one, no matter who she is.