Albania is empty, educated are leaving, those with salaries of over 1,000 euros

The mainly new age migration waves will continue with high intensity even in the following periods as a survey of the Emigration potentials supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation revealed weeks that over 52 % of the population in the 18-year-old age group, 40, wants to emigrate from Albania, with an increase of 8 percentage points compared to 2007.

Professors Gudashi-King's survey revealed new migration trends, where the wave of escapes has swept through cities with a higher standard of living. Half of the people who receive salaries from 1,000-1400 euros want to leave. But it was also seen that 70% of returning migrants want to leave again, writes Monitor.

Regaining the high influx of migration in recent years is only the tip of the iceberg of what is expected to happen. The frightening results of recent polls, where more than half of the country's population wants to leave and has already started preparations for this process, probably is the most accurate answer that Albania is not doing well.

The last wave of migration is more dramatic and is jeopardising to take the country to “outreach”, as the escort has included major cities such as Vlora, Tirana Durres and Elbasan, while those who want to leave are high-paid and well-advised individuals who had not been observed in the 2007 survey. Except for economic reasons to emigrate, the lack of hope that the situation in Albania will improve for the better is a factor that has marked growth compared to 10 years ago.

Professors Ilir Gedesh and Russell King through the Centre for Social and Economic Research, with their research into immigration over the years, have recently found new trends in the phenomenon and causes of high immigration flows. Recently, they presented a search for potential migration, which was supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. According to this year's survey data, 52% of the Albanian population of the 18-year-old group of 40 years want to migrate from Albania, compared to the 2007 survey, where 44.2% of this age group wanted to emigrate.

They focused their survey and research only on the 18-40-year-old population, as these constitute the highest potential for migration. The poll included 1436 interviews across the country and was held during this year's February-July period. With earlier polls on the potential of migration such as the Gallup potential last year, which have spread across the entire population, they have found higher standards of wanting to flee above the 56% level.

Professor Gedesh said that the desire to migrate to these dimensions is linked to the image that people have of their future and of their children. On the one hand, it is a reflection of the real economic, social and political situation in the country of origin, and, in turn, potential opportunities in the host country. The survey showed that, around 50% of those receiving salaries from 1000-1470 euros want to leave. But it was also seen that 70% of returning migrants want to leave again.

The emptying of Vlora, Tirana, Elbasan...

Vlora, Elbasan, Tirana, Berat, Lezha, Fieri and Durres are counted as circles with the highest immigration potential in Gedesh-King's 2018 poll. The desire to escape is high for Vlora citizens, where 66.7% of citizens have told immigration, followed by the Egyptians, where more than 57% of them want to emigrate and, to this extent, want to leave Albania and the citizens of Tirana. The capital, which has per capita income on the national average and offers higher living opportunities, ranks third in the country's 12 districts for high immigration potential.

The poll has estimated that they want to emigrate 56% of the Egyptians, 54.8% of the lesbians, 52.7% of the fines, 51.6% of the dursak and 50% of the schoolgirls. Lowest immigration potentials in proportion to the national average were spotted in the Dibra District by 21.7%, in Gjirokastra with 23.2%, in Korca by 40.7% and in Kukes by 41.2%. The lowest percentage of the potential for immigration in these circuits reflects the emptying of these cities from internal migration and the high migration they have suffered in the past.

In 2007, when Professor Gedesh conducted a survey on potential migration, he found that the tendency to leave was more pronounced in unqualified and low educational youth, mainly from the poorer area (Kukesi) and the country's border (Korca, Gjirokastra) were more likely to migrate. This tendency is not noted in the survey of 2018. The potential migration is highest from Vlora, Elbasan, Tirana, Berat, etc., and smaller in poorer circles (Kukes, Debar) and the country's border (Korca, Gjirokastra).

Planned to flee in the next three years

Professor Gedesh explained that the potentials of migration do not translate into real migration, since the desire to leave often does not respond to opportunities. Survey data 2018 showed that 17.2% of Albanians of the age group between 18 and 40 or 33.1% of those expressing their desire for migration are expected to leave within the year. While 16.7% of Albanians of this age group -- or 32.1% of those expressing a desire for migration -- think of migrating within the next three years. The rest of the potential migrants say they want to migrate to the arch of the next 10 years (16%) or more than 10 years (0.7%).

While the remaining portion has not yet decided represents 18.1% of potential migrants. The second or “index possible to emigrate”, in addition to the involvement of the first one, is linked to the possibility of financing travel, with the existence of social networks in the migration country, with recognition of the host country's language at a certain level and the information needed for this country. The estimate of the second or the possible “indicators to emigrate” shows that about 7% of potential migrants, or 3.6% of the age group's population 18 to 40, may emigrate. This indicator is evidently lower than the desire for migration, and no doubt is closer to reality.

Young People Flee

Poll results show that, generally, they want to emigrate young people and that the desire for migration decreases significantly in the post-40s. It drops to 43.7% for the 18-50 age group, 35.9% in the 18-60 age group, and 30.3% to 70. Many of those thinking of migrating after the 60s want family reunions with their immigrant children, mainly in Greece, Italy and the US.

The study shows that the desire for migration culminates in the segment between 27 and 30 years of age. Survey data shows that the average potential migration for this segment of the Albanian population totals 71.2%. Meanwhile, a comparison of the two surveys' data shows that in 2007, Albanian migraine potential culminated in age groups 18 to 25, in 2018 it peaks for ages 27 to 30.

Men Leave More

Historically, men have emigrated, but in recent years, the percentage of women who emigrated and wanted to leave has increased. According to the study, the desire to leave remains higher in men, with about 61.8%, while in women, 48.3%. This relates to the cultural norms that exist in Albania and their civil status, Professor Gudesh said. Generally, Albanian migration is dominated by males, while females followed in a later period through family union or marriages. A little over half (51.7%) of those who want to migrate are married, and 47.6% are single.

The desire for migration is evidently higher in unmarried men -- 64.6% than in those married by about 35.4%. This explains that unmarried men are more independent and free to migrate, and that married males should consider the family they are responsible for. The opposite is true of women. A potential migration is lower for those who are not married and higher for those who are married. This explains the fact that unmarried women have limited opportunities to emigrate independently.

Educators' immigration increased, 65% of students want to leave

There is a strong connection between education and the desire for migration. Survey data 2018 shows that potential migration is higher for those who have professional, teccard and secondary education. Professor Gedesh says this fact is explained by the greater employment opportunities of people who possess skills in countries such as Germany and the developed countries of the European Union and the United States.

Globalization is making job markets increasingly competitive, which means that developed countries will increasingly attract qualified workers from developing countries. The departure of this category is also due to the fact that qualified and educated persons are unhappy with employment opportunities and working conditions in Albania.

A comparison to the 2007 survey is seen in a collapse of the trend. The 2007 survey data showed that the lower the educational level, the higher the desire for migration. About 10 years ago, 75% of illiterate people wanted to emigrate, while currently want to emigrate only 20%. This was explained by the fact that uneducated and unqualified people were unemployed or had difficulty finding a job in Albania and wanted to migrate (mostly to Italy and Greece).

While those who owned a profession, or had a higher education, it was easier for them to integrate into the labour market in Albania. While in 2018, university and master people see no perspective in Albania, as 53% of them plan to leave, in proportion to 40% having such plans in 2017. The desire to leave has also increased among high school youths, as 53-57% of them want to leave, with an increase of 12-13% compared to the 2007 survey.

The education report with migration relates to new destinations where Albanians want to leave. The increasingly qualified people want to emigrate to Germany, North America, and other highly developed Western European countries. But less educated people want to leave more in Greece and partly in Italy, where through social networks they can find unqualified jobs, even in the informal sector.

Professor Gedesh says the report between potential migration and education has another aspect to be used by policymakers in the future. The desire to migrate to Germany and other developed countries of Western Europe can serve as incentives for education, professional qualifications, and foreign language learning on the part of potential immigrants. According to an interview conducted at the Goeth Institute in Tirana, the number of young people learning and receiving German - language testimony increased three times in 2017 compared with 2013. In many of the interviews conducted by CESSS with asylum seekers returning from Germany, there was an interest in performing professional schools in order to adapt to the job market requirements in this country in case of possible migration.

This growing interest in potential migrants for education and professional training is also proved by survey data. Thus, almost 85% of potential migrants want to participate in a training in Albania to prepare for living and work abroad. The potential immigrants who want to participate in these courses express more interest in learning foreign language (72.3%), professional training (39.1%), cultural orientation (22.9%) and university studies (17%). This interest in preparing for work and living in the migration country has a notable increase compared to the 2007 survey, when only 48.7% of potential immigrants expressed that desire. Professor Gedesh says this wish should be supported because it increases the country's human capital and that of potential immigrant.

More people with salaries than 1,000 euros prefer

One of the innovations of the poll has been the discovery that, the people who want to leave are mostly those with high salaries. Although the desire for migration is seen in all social groups, it is no longer a characteristic only of poor groups of Albanian society. The survey divided respondents into 10 large groups, based on their family's monthly or annual income. The group at the end of the income rate has less than 70 euros in monthly household income, while the top one has 1.416 euros. The results were different from the 2007 poll. The survey data showed that potential migration was higher in households that characterised the financial situation as the highly insufficient “”, and “insufficient”.

The 2018 survey found that about 55% who had salaries among the 1,000-1400 euros wanted to leave. Also, at these levels, people with salaries of 470 to 950 euros a month plan to leave. On the other hand, less than 50% of people with salaries under 370 euros are seen planning to leave. Survey data shows that students and employees are more inclined to migrate compared with the unemployed, self-employed and household. This indicates that employment itself does not prevent migration. The results of surveying show that working conditions, low wages, and lack of perspective are some of the factors driving people to migrate.

Survey data shows that in certain sectors of the economy and in certain professions, such as health, centrist call, clothes, shoewear, construction, etc., people are more inclined to migrate. All these new characteristics of potential migration are reflected in their geographic distribution. Thus, the 2007 survey showed that unqualified and low educational young people, mainly from the poor area (Kukesi) and the border (Korca, Gjirokastra) in the country, were more likely to migrate. This tendency is not noted in the survey of 2018. The potential migration is highest from Vlora, Elbasan, Tirana, Berat, etc., and smaller in poorer circles (Kukes, Debar) and the country's border (Korca, Gjirokastra).

Economics and Education - The Causes of Migration

Professor Gedesh says that there are various causes of potential migration, where we might mention economic, educational, family and health factors. If we compare the current driving factors of potential migration with those of the 2007 poll, economic factors, although still prevalent, have been softened in Albania. Family factors have also been reduced. But, on the other hand, there is an increase in the number of people who highlight educational factors, lack of the future in Albania, and, to a lesser extent, the health care they have for their prospects in their homeland.

However, economic factors, which include improving living standards, unemployment, low wages and working conditions, social insurance schemes and debts, continue to remain the main drivers of Albanian migration. According to the survey, these factors represent 57% of migration causes, or more than half of all factors.

This shows that Albanian migration, even in its third decade, continues to be guided by economic factors. Along with economic factors, a smaller group of people (19.4%) cite factors that mainly relate to the lack of economic, social and political perspective in Albania. These include claims of potential immigrants that there is no future in Albania, I don't like to live in Albania, I wish to migrate abroad and adventure.

Another set of factors is education (17.4%). Some of the potential immigrants stress that they want to be educated in the host country (5.4%) or to fund their children's education (12%). Family factors that include getting married/unmarried, sharing with your spouse or parents and getting rid of family problems represent 4.6% of the answers. In addition, some respondents also stress health factors (1.5%). To deepen the analysis, potential migrants were asked to determine from the entire selected factors the main driving factor to migrate from Albania. In responses to potential migrants, the main factor for their 36.5% is to improve living standards.

Displacement to Germany Tops the List

Compared to the 2007 survey, there is a reorient of the influx of potential Albanian migration, which is explained by the profound changes that have taken place by the impact of two crises, the global economic crisis and the refugee crisis.

Germany is the first favourite country of potential Albanian immigrants, and about 22% of them want to migrate to this country. In 2018, compared with the 2007 survey, it has the highest growth of all countries, at 17 percentage points.

The image created for Germany by Albanian asylum seekers, as a social country (instruction, health, social protection) with large opportunities of employment and higher income, has been broadcast to the large extent of people when they return to Albania. Nearly all interviews conducted with returning Albanian asylum seekers show they want to migrate to Germany. Even a poll conducted in 2017-2018, with 520 Albanian students studying in various European Union countries and in Great Britain, showed that about 16% of them want to migrate after completing their studies in Germany.

The first ten countries to migrate Albanians are Germany with 21.7%, the US with 16.4%, Italy with 15.7%, Greece with 14.4%, Great Britain with 11%, France at 3%, Canada with 2.7%, Switzerland at 2.3%, Sweden with 2.3% and Austria with 1.3%. The following picture clearly shows that Albanian potential migration, on the one hand, focuses on European Union (74.6%), and on the other in North America ( The United States and Canada - 19.1%). Other countries, outside these two geographical areas, are Turkey at 1.3% and Australia is at a distance of 0.7%.

Italy and Greece, traditionally the two main countries of Albanian immigration, undoubtedly due to the high and prolonged unemployment they experienced as a result of the global economic crisis, are losing appeal for Albanian immigrants. Comparison of two surveys shows that over a period of 11 years, they have lost 15.5 and 12 percentage points each, respectively.

New trends show that Albanian migrants will increasingly concentrate in Western European developed countries. Caroline Novine Kölker, in her study, stresses that by the end of 2015, the number of legal Albanian immigrants to Germany totaled about 59,000 people. Through social networks, potential migrants find it easier to obtain information, housing, finding a job, document fixing, marriages, etc.

This reorient of the influx of Albanian migration mainly towards Germany, but also several other Western and Central European countries (United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Spain, Belgium, etc.), will bring further changes, quantitative and qualitative prospects, in terms of income, savings, remittances, investments and social capital of Albanian immigrants. Thus, two major surveys conducted in the early years of the global economic crisis (2008 and 2009) show that incomes, savings and remittances of Albanian immigrants from Western and Central European countries are higher than those from Greece and Italy. Consequently, the impact of new influxs of Albanian migration into the country's economy through financial and social remittances, investments and human capital in case of return will be greater.

But, on the other hand, this process will also be accompanied by a reduction of human resources in Albania. The potential miners were also asked about the possibility of selecting another country, along with the first, to migrate. Interestingly, even in this case, Germany is again the first country wanted by 23.7% of potential immigrants. Many of the potential migrants who have chosen Greece or Italy as the first migration country have Germany as the second option.

The potential immigrants have also been asked about some of the factors affecting the desired migration site's selection. The answers show that the selection of these countries is largely determined by economic-social factors, such as employment and higher income (39.6%), the possibility of saving money (12.5%), the existence of social networks (10.6%), education opportunities (9.6%), the family union (5.3%) and the social security system (4.2%). The answers show that employment and income, child education, family association, social networking presence, and previous experiences in that country are the main driving factors of potential migration. So the main factors that inspire people to emigrate are material, human (education) and social capital.