Iran has the right ingredients for a revolution

The most ill-fated comment on what is now happening in Iran was written 162 years ago. In his book on the French Revolution, Alexis de Tocqueville wrote: “Revolutions do not always come from a gradual decline, from a bad situation, to a worse situation. The nations that have patiently and almost unconsciously suffered the greatest pressure often break into rebellion against the yoke as it begins to become a little easier. The regime destroyed by a revolution is almost always an improvement, compared to its predecessor, and experience teaches us that the most critical moment for bad governments is when they take the first steps towards reforming”.

Why are these protests happening in Iran and not in, say, North Korea? That's the question Tocqueville gives us answers.

The deeply antagonistic relationship between Washington and Tehran makes it easy to forget that Iran today is more open than many other countries in the Middle East. Compare the situation of women and minorities in Saudi Arabia and Iran, and you will find that there is really no comparison. And in recent years, Iran has taken steps towards an even greater opening, although they have often backed down, as hard lines win over reformers, in what is still a depressing regime.

Over the past two decades, the country has repeatedly chosen presidents who are opposed by hardline establiment. In 1997, he chose Mohammed Khatamin, who is now under virtual house arrest. Then came Mahmud Ahmadidead, whose rhetoric and radical approach masked the fact that he was a foreigner in mulaho-kracia, who had led Iran since 1979. Ahmadine was a clever street politician with no theological credentials and thus considered a threat to the clergy who wanted to maintain power. Today, the country has another reformist president, Hassan Rouhan, who has been elected twice, the second time by a large majority. Iran's hardline establishment has sought to undermine Rouhan's reform agenda. In fact, some serious observers speculate that the protests are designed by extreme characters who will use them to justify a blow and a total end to reform.

The 2009 Green Movement in Iran is an illustration of Tocqueville's thesis. It happened only because the country held elections, accompanied by debates, contested candidates and secret vote. The process aroused the hopes of many Iranians, who were later deeply disappointed when, in the end, elections were thought to have been manipulated and the thinking candidate reformed. In Egypt today, no one expects real elections so when General Abdel Fatah al-Assi wins 97 per cent of the vote, no one protests.

The abuses the French government was charged with were not new, but the light under which they were seen was new”, Tocqueville wrote. “There have been more problems in the financial department earlier, but since then there have been changes in government and society that made them feel stronger now”. In the same way, the Iranian economy has always been an dysfunctional mess a toxic mix of autism, state socialism and corruption. But in recent years, people's expectations have been enhanced by the promises of reformers, expectations that sanctions would be lifted and knowledge of life outside Iran. In fact, the protests were sparked by a series of economic reforms.

The book of Ian Bremmer “The J Curve” of 2006 argued that some countries are stable because North Korea and Belarus are closed, for example, while others are stable because they are open, such as the United States and Japan. The first raise shields against the winds of globalisation; the second are flexible and flexible enough to adapt to these forces. The hardest time is when a country goes from being closed to being open. If the regime is wise and strategic, it could be able to reform and cope with this difficult transition. But there are two other ways, which are more likely to pursue chaos, produce a return to the oppression or collapse of the state.

Iran has all the Ingredients for a revolution. More than half of the population is under 30 years of age, many young people are educated but unemployed, almost 50 million Iranians have smartphones they can learn about the world, and reformers have constantly raised hopes, but have never kept promises. But the regime also has instruments of power, ideology, oppression, which is all about to be used to maintain control. Iran seems to have a period of instability in a Middle East, even very unstable. / Source: The Washington Post world.al