How can Britain change its mind about Brexit

Will it be 2018 when the United Kingdom will change its mind about exit from the European Union? Based on what we already know, Brex's ban is impossible. But what did we think we knew about Donald Trump? Or Emmanuel Macron? Or, for the original Brex referendum? In revolutionary times, events can be made from inevitable beyond passing on. Brexit was such an event, and his overthrow may be another event.
Ask Nigel Farage, former Irider of the United Kingdom Independent Party, who suddenly said the June 2016 Brex referendum could be overturned. “ - The EU is running everything,” warned Farage his pro-removed partners this weekend. “They have a majority in parliament and if we don't get organized, we can lose the historic victory that Brex was. ”
Votes for Brex and Trump are often described today as an inevitable result of deep socioeconomic factors such as inequality or globalism. In some ways this description is correct. Political discontent of some kind was expected after the economic crisis, as I have reasoned for years.
But there is nothing inevitable about specific riots. Brexit, like Trump, was an uncertain result coming from anxiety in voter behavior. If only 1.8% of Britons voted differently, Brex would be a forgotten word. If the popular majority of Hillary Clinton's three million votes were distributed slightly differently to states, President Trump” would be as funny today as it was in January 2016.
To stop Brexet in the next year, four equally modest changes in behavior must take place. Public opinion should go a little bit more towards Britain's exit decision, which is already viewed as wrong with a 4% margin. Politicians who despise Brexit in privacy must speak publicly. Reasonable opposition to government policies should be recognized again as a mark of democracy, not an act of betrayal. And the feeling of Brex as inevitable must be removed.
These demands are interdependent. Politicians will only talk if they feel they are changing public opinion, but public opinion will only change with credible political leadership. Politicians are mired in silence if all objections are seen as anti-democratic. And if Brex appears inevitable, why should voters get tired of thinking about it again?
The sense of inevitability, opinion polls and focus groups are among the most important obstacles to a collapse. About 30% of British voters oppose the EU with so much passion that they would always support the exit, despite economic costs, as Trump's basalt will always support their president “” regardless of how it behaves.
But these fanatic Eurosceptics would never win a majority without about 20% of voters who cared little about Europe, but treated the referendum as a protest vote. Many of these men are already convinced that Brexit has ignored their major difficulties in health, inequality, low wages, housing, and other issues. Still, for this reason, they want Europe's inevitable evacuation to happen as soon as possible so that the country can return to work as usual.
Suppose these voters began to believe that Brexit, away from the inevitable, could never happen. They would require that politicians “stop arguing about Europe” and start dealing with people's concerns.
The feeling of inevitability may be lifted from recent changes to the interior policies of the conservative government and the labist opposition.
Labusists have begun to realise that the only way to regain power is to oppose Brex. The detailed analysis of the 2017 elections has shown that the sudden increase in support for labists came from new voters motivated by the hope for Brex rerun. Had it not been for these anti-Brex voters, Prime Minister Theresa May would have won the numerous votes that were predicted.
If Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the labists, will now become “Brex player,”, as Tony Blair has said, leaving the effective opposition, those young voters will feel betrayed, the party will be divided between Marxists and centrists, and its hopes of winning a general election would be broken. If labists, on the other hand, decide to fight Brexit, public opinion would change rapidly.
Opposition to Brexit will begin to be treated as a natural feature of democratic politics. Labusists would start taking advantage of the government's mistakes in negotiating. And the feeling of Brex's inevitability would disappear.
This in exchange would give courage to pro-European conservatives. conservative MPs are unlikely to vote against their party leadership if the lack of lab opposition allows the government to win anyway. If, however, the labist-led opposition would create a real opportunity to stop Brex, conservative MPs who put state interests ahead of those of the party would find themselves praised for trying, not scoffing. They can also estimate that their careers would flourish if their party agreed with Europe.
This chain of events now seems to be starting. In December, May lost its first major Brex battle, when the labist deputies joined 12 conservative rebels to pass a change requiring a specific parliamentary Act to approve any agreement negotiated with the EU. This means that if any Brexi plan collects serious opposition, whether by fanatic nationalists or pro-European conservatives, this could be used to trigger a new referendum. After this achievement, the first interparty campaign aimed at stopping Brex and not only causing damage by seeking a softer divorce agreement will be launched this month.
To succeed, this campaign will have to convince frustrated pro-Europeans that Brex is not inevitable. It will have to show to those who voted for protest, that whatever their problem, Brex is not the answer. We have to convince lab politicians that working with Brex is electoral suicide and convincing conservative pro- The EU that a second rebellion will not be inevitable. Finally, it will take European leaders to declare unanimously that Britain is legally free to change its view of departure. These demands are challenging, but not impossible.
David Davis, the pro-Brex conservative who now heads the exit negotiations, once said that, if a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy”. Britain is still a democracy and can still change its mind about Brex.

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