It's not too late yet, here's how Spain can be saved

When a democracy sends in the police units of quick intervention to beat the old ladies over the head with sticks and prevent them from voting, something has gone very wrong. Catalans say almost 900 people were injured by police in the independence referendum on October 1st.

Whatever provocation by Catalan leaders to stage an unconstitutional complaint, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's reaction has thrown Spain into the worst constitutional crisis since the coup in 1981.

If Mr. Rajoy thought separatist leaders would stop the secession, he could no longer have been wrong. He has only created a situation that has energized his enemies and shocked his companions. On October 3rd, Catalonia, one of Spain's richest regions, was paralyzed by a protest strike. Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators have marched to express their anger.

Extinction would be a disaster for Spain. The country would lose its second most important city and risk further loss of the Bask region. Distinction would also harm the Catalans, so most of them may oppose it. And Catalan independence could promote separatism elsewhere in Europe in Scotland again, no doubt but also in northern Italy, in Corsica, perhaps even in Bavari.

To prevent deepening the crisis, both sides must seek a new constitutional solution. Instead, they are digging their pit, and Catalonia is on the verge of unilateral independence and its illegal proclamation.

After Franco.

Spain has a historic fear of fragmentation. Catalan Seperatism was one of the factors that brought about the Spanish civil war of the '30 ' s. Many Spaniards no doubt share the wrath of King Felipe, who in a rare television talk denounced the Catalonian leaders as irresponsible and traitors to the 1978 constitution.

After all, the Catalans overwhelmingly supported this status quo, which instilled democracy, brought prosperity and gave a major dose of autonomy in Spanish regions, including Catalonia.

A well-run democracy must refrain from rule of law. This is what protects democratic freedoms, no less the freedom of minorities to express dissatisfaction. Until the day of the referendum, no one who experienced Barcelona's relicing vibration could seriously say Catalonia was printed.

With few exceptions, especially when empires are torn down, the world in general favours national unity over self - determination by subnationalist groups. Many of the states liberated from the break-up of the Soviet Empire joined the European Union, but these days the EU is cautious, warning potential sensors that new states have no automatic right to join the Union. Without Spain's support, Catalonia would be on the wrong side of a new customs wall.

For all these reasons the Catalan leader, Charles Puigdemont, does not have a strong issue for independence. He can't even claim a real mandate. He used laws authorising the referendum through the Catalan parliament with a narrow majority and without adequate debate. These laws do not have any formal legal attitude.

Before his referendum, opinion polls suggested that only 40-45% of the Catalans wanted to secede. 90% of the vote to leave was 90% of a turnout of less than half the population, because Catalonia citizens largely refused to participate in the referendum. Like other populists, Mr. Puigdemont has offered a simple vision, without explaining the costs of independence or how it can happen.

But that is not the end of the story. Democracy relies on the consent of the governed. Even some who disagree with Mr. Puigdemont believes Catalonia has an issue to gain its citizenship. Catalonia can survive economically. Many of its people think that it is a nation. Under autonomy, Catalan leaders have promoted their language and their nationalist faith.

Pain in Spain

Despite the legality of separatism, when the desire for independence reaches a critical point, governments must deal with it in three ways: suppress it, bend or negotiate in trust, knowing that partition may still be a possible result.

Rajoy has not understood the nature of this choice. First he blocked nationalists in the courts and, last weekend, he used force. His lack of police to suppress the Catalan vote was not just a propaganda gift to them, but, most important, a line passed. Aggression against crowds of quiet citizens may function in Tibet, but cannot rely on a Western democracy.

In a race between formal justice and natural justice, natural justice eventually wins every time. Constitutions exist to serve citizens, not vice versa. Instead of upholding the rule of law as he thought, Mr. Rajoy ended up damaging the legitimacy of the Spanish state.

Will Puigdemont proclaim Independence? That would be careless and irresponsible, but if he did, Rajoy must resist the temptation to arrest the Catalan leaders and, at the moment, avoid using his power to suspend regional rule. For now alone, any other provision would only weigh down his mistakes.

Only one conversation can restore peace and start immediately. Even now most Catalans may probably be “bine” with the offer of greater autonomy, including the power to increase and maintain their taxes, more protection for Catalan and a kind of recognition of the Catalans as a “com”. Mr. Rajoy could also get the idea of opposition by the Socialists to turn Spain into a federal state.

However, any solution should include the possibility of a referendum on independence. Parting would be a difficult change for Catalonia and the rest of Spain, so it should not be done that easily. Most Catalans who have the right to vote must be the minimum threshold for independence. The subsequent vote on terms of partition could also be wise.

Despite all his shortcomings, David Cameron, the former British prime minister, was right to allow a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014. He campaigned for Scotland to stay, and he won the vote firmly.

Rajoy must do the same. The arguments to Spain's unity are strong. But it must be won by the power of argument. Using force alone, Mr. Rajoy is not preventing the breakup of Spain, but promoting it. / The Economist Read.al/