Trump's agreement with Iran and the 2015 Nuclear Agreement: What's different this time?

This agreement was sharply criticised by his successor Donald Trump, who in 2018 withdrew the United States from it.

Trump repeatedly stated that his agreement would be better, but the document he signed in Versailles is not final yet many issues remain to be negotiated during the next 60 (or more) days.

If that were easy, the issue would be resolved that two wars before”, the Free Europe Radio Naysan Rafati, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, referring to last June 12th war last year, and the new escalation this year, which began with US and Israeli air strikes on 28 February.

The “Bases of the Iranian nuclear programme since last June are different from what they have been during the JCPOA period”, he adds.

What did the JCPOA agreement involve?

One element that has not changed is Iran's denial that it aims to develop nuclear weapons, but, meanwhile, has enriched uranium to higher levels than those needed for civilian use.

That was one of the main problems then, and it remains today.

The main elements of the JCPOA were that Iran send 98 percent of its stored uranium reserves abroad, accept restrictions on future enrichment well below gun levels, give up some centrifuges used for enrichment and allow all of these to be controlled by the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The points included a host of technical details, such as the precise levels of enrichment, the amount of rich material, storage sites, and specific models of centrifuges.

Iran also pledged that it would not develop nuclear weapons.

In exchange, international sanctions related to the nuclear programme, but not to other issues, such as Iran's support for armed groups throughout the Middle East, its missile programme or human rights abuses, would be removed on the basis of verification that Iran was sticking to the deal.

In addition to easing sanctions, Iran was also given access to frozen assets abroad, whose value was questionable with estimates ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion.

The U.S. also paid Iran about $1.3 billion.

The deal had a conflict settlement mechanism and an expiration clause by 2030.

It was approved by the UN Security Council.

However, the agreement met with political opposition in the US, from both parties.

Critics argued it only limited Iran's nuclear programme, but did not fully dismantle it and address other problematic issues, such as Iran's role in the region.

Sanctions against Iran were removed in January 2016, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verified that Iran was implementing the conditions.

Even in 2017, the United States confirmed twice that Iran was sticking to the deal.

The Way to War

In May 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement, naming it a terrible “” and unilateral.

Between 2020 and 2021, Iran began to raise both the centrifuges and the uranium enrichment level, according to IAEA reports.

This led Great Britain, France and Germany (known as E3) to declare Tehran was no longer respecting the JCPOA.

In June last year, Israel and the United States carried out air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, warning that Iran was close to developing nuclear weapons.

The Pentagon later estimated that the operation “csen of midnight” had turned the program back to two years, although there were conflicting reports of the exact degree of damage.

“There have been major damage to both objects and many of the top officials linked to the nuclear programme. But we still haven't had inspections on the ground in the hit places. I AEA has been able to access several objects, but not in the main enrichment facilities targeted during Operation”, Rafat says.

Iran began restricting the monitoring by the IAEA after the June conflict.

Then, in September last year, another JCPOA provision -- the so-called masoleum “napback” -- took effect.

This meant that UN sanctions, removed under the agreement, would be restored after Iran's failure to comply with its obligations.

E3 launched this process after Iran refused to meet their demands for full access to IAEA inspectors and transparency over the reserves of rich material.

After the June 2025 conflict, Washington and Iran resumed negotiations on nuclear issues.

But these talks were interrupted when US and Israeli air strikes against Iran began on February 28th.

Now what?

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Trump and Iranian President Massoud Pezchian on 17 June calls for the immediate removal of US sanctions on Iranian oil, while the removal of other sanctions and the release of frozen assets will occur only if Iran implements its obligations, such as lowering the level of uranium enriched under the supervision of the IAEA.

“We are not in the trust business”, a senior American official said during a press conference on 17 June.

The issue of uranium enrichment is also left to be addressed in further negotiations, while Iran “maintains it will not provide or develop nuclear weapons”.

Like JCPOA, this agreement has been criticised, including by some republican lawmakers, who say the US has made major concessions for limited benefits.

Max Meizlich, analyst at the Foundation for the Protection of Democracy, expresses concern over the easing of oil sanctions.

If this is really a performance-based agreement ? is to link any easing of sanctions to the regime's behavior, which goes beyond simple participation in negotiations, signing of the memorandum of understanding and opening of the Chuck”, he tells Radio Free Europe.

The American Congress will not easily give up on this, unless there is considerable reform from Iran. And we will see. We will see what the U.S. ” will eventually require, he adds, referring to expected talks.

Meizlic also criticises Iran's lack of any reference to the other malicious “operations” as its missile programme and support for groups such as Hezbollah, which Washington considers a terrorist organisation.

The JCPOA was criticised for the same reasons.

The situation now, after two wars that have ravaged Iran's economy and damaged its nuclear facilities, is very different from 2015.

Such conflicts have also greatly eroded trust, further complicating negotiations.

JCPOA, otherwise, was not just a bilateral process US-Iran.

Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany were also involved in negotiations that lasted nearly two years.

The Memorandum of Understanding says negotiators will target an agreement within 60 days, but even this period could be extended.

Rafat suggests that the talks are more technical and complex than they have been until now, in 2025-2026. / REL/