And where the big oil game changes

In fact, there will be the big Russian oil game, currently hit by EU sanctions, but only partially, pending the final blow scheduled for the end of this year.

Forced to identify Asia as its new leading trading region after being isolated from Europe, Russia has strengthened its relations with old and local young partners. If ever stronger economic relations between Moscow and Beijing are not surprising, the same cannot be said for the new economic axis Moscow - New Delhi.

Meanwhile, despite having condemned Russia for fighting in Ukraine, Japan and South Korea continue to buy oil from the Kremlin. Like Taiwan, recently placed at the international spotlight on Nancy Peloss' visit to the island and Beijing's harsh reaction.

So the West and its partners, including those in Asia, are unanimous in their charge of Moscow's attack on Kiev and triggering a bloody conflict. But there are those who seem to have no intention of sacrificing their economic and productive systems, completely deprived themselves of ties with the Russians.

Set aside the U.S., for which the embargo impact on Russian oil will have a markedly limited effect compared to what will happen in the Old Continent, it is interesting to focus attention on India, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Without forgetting China, which, although not part of the Western alliance, is conducting commercial movements that will affect the world oil sector.

If the price of oil has dropped recently, it has happened because India and China have increased the purchase of crude oil from Russia, and at the same time have reduced the purchase of oil from third countries. This has forced other producers, including Saudi Arabia, to lower their prices.

Let us now consider India, where Moscow is dominate the domestic oil market, even exceeding the weight of Saudi and OPEC countries in terms of buying precious energy sources. India, the largest oil importer in the world (85 percent of oil imported from outside), has found a perfect partner in Russia.

According to Bloomberg, in the second quarter of this year -- April to June -- the Indian government has bought Russian oil at a price lower than the one offering Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, another offer was made for a large amount of Russian oil at a price of up to $19 per barrel.

A month later, in June, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia, becoming the second largest oil supplier in India after Iraq. So since the war in Ukraine forced Russia to find new markets to export its oil, at more convenient prices, India took advantage of the situation, becoming one of Moscow's leading clients. In this way, it guaranteed a positive effect on its economy.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has become the largest supplier of oil for China as well. According to data released by China's General Customs Administration in July, the communist country's independent refinerys increased the quantities of oil purchased at prices cut from Moscow, reducing imports from rival suppliers like Brazil and Angola

In general, imports of China's fossil fuels from Russia continue to increase. Beijing purchased crude oil and liquid natural gas (LNG) for the fourth consecutive month, marking annual growth of 7.6 percent (in about 7.14 million tons) and 20.1 percent, exceeding 400,000 tonnes.

Russia's Chinese oil imports from the beginning of this year reached 48.45 million tons, 4.4 percent more than a year ago, but still lags behind those of Saudi Arabia, which supplied China 49,84 million tons, or 1 percent less than a year ago. Therefore, thanks to China, Russian oil company Rosneft has become one of the largest companies in the world, while India's demand for Russian oil has allowed Moscow to increase crude oil exports to New Delhi from about zero to 1 million barrels a day.

So it is time for Europe's strategy to be summed up. The EU's embargo on Russian oil imports coming through sea routes will take effect between December and January. In June, the Council adopted a package of 6 sanctions, where, among other things, “halts the acquisition, import or transfer of crude oil and specific oil products from Russia to the EU”.

But these restrictions will gradually go into effect: within six months for crude oil and within eight months for other refined oil products. Meanwhile, there is a temporary exception for imports of crude oil that comes through land lines to member countries, which because of their geographic location, suffer from a specific dependence on Russian supplies and have no possible alternative.

According to Brussels, by the end of the year these restrictions will cover nearly 90 percent of Russian oil imports to Europe, significantly reducing Russia's profits from the sector. The EU will then have to seek new suppliers capable of replacing the Kremlin (from Nigeria to Angola via Cameroon).

Meanwhile in Asia, the main Western partners continue to import oil from Russia. In the five months following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan imported a total of $5.5 billion in fossil fuels from Moscow, notes Asian Nikkei Revie.

This indicates the high dependence of these countries on the first Russian classes, which are almost impossible to end. The Centre for Energy and Fresh Air Research estimates that Japan imported $2.6 billion in coal, oil and Russian gas between February 24th and July 31st. South Korea has about 1.7 billion, while Taiwan has $1.2 billion in the same period.

Thus, Seoul, Tokyo, and Taipei have contributed about $1 billion a month to Russia's federal budget. When EU countries' sanctions for Russian coal and oil take effect at the end of this year, East Asian countries will essentially remain the main customers of Russian fossil fuels”- says Lauri Myllyvita, lead researcher at the think-tank CREA. /abcnews. al